Grammar Time

"After nearly two years of a grueling and ugly campaign, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has proved that he is the right choice to be the 44th president of the United States."

-New York Times

OK, so basically my understanding was that you can say "Barack Obama proved ..." or "Barack Obama has proven," but not "has proved." Am I crazy?

(Side note: I want to have a discussion about quotation marks and commas sometime)

Also, now that I've been staring at the word 'proven' for the last two minutes, my brain is now quite sure I can't possibly be spelling it right. Really stare at that and try to convince yourself it's pronounced the way it is (then again, maybe it's just the font that is used when you create a post).

*************************

Here's another question, one on which I'm sure I'll run into some opposition. So, the conventional wisdom is that if you're discussing a noun that begins with a vowel, you precede it with "an" as opposed to "a," as in "an obligation."

But my understanding is that whether it begins with a vowel is irrelevant; it's whether it begins with a vowel sound. I guess this distinction isn't directly important to my point, which was going to be that I can't stand hearing the phrase "an historical," as in, "from an historical perspective."

Perhaps if you live in England, where "I have to hunt to be happy" turns into "I 'ave to 'unt to be 'appy" you could say an historical, but otherwise, my understanding is it's just plain wrong. Nonetheless, it's something I hear very well-educated people say on a regular basis, so again, maybe I'm missing something. Thoughts?

I'm reverting some of the changes (UPDATED)

I just don't like them, and the "reactions" don't seem to be working anyhow. Feel free to tinker with anything you'd like though.

Update:
Did you know when creating a post, if you hit the "show all" button after the line where you enter labels it will show you all the labels used thus far? 'Cuz I didn't.

I know, I know, I shouldn't let this stuff bother me...

During last night's NBC News interview with Brian Williams:

WILLIAMS: Who is a member of the elite?

PALIN: Oh, I guess just people who think that they're better than anyone else. And-- John McCain and I are so committed to serving every American. Hard-working, middle-class Americans who are so desiring of this economy getting put back on the right track. And winning these wars. And America's starting to reach her potential. And that is opportunity and hope provided everyone equally. So anyone who thinks that they are-- I guess-- better than anyone else, that's-- that's my definition of elitism.

WILLIAMS: So it's not education? It's not income-based? It's--

PALIN: Anyone who thinks that they're better than someone else.

WILLIAMS: --a state of mind? It's not geography?

PALIN: 'Course not.

WILLIAMS: Senator?

MCCAIN: I-- I know where a lot of 'em live. (LAUGH)

WILLIAMS: Where's that?

MCCAIN: Well, in our nation's capital and New York City. I've seen it. I've lived there. I know the town. I know-- I know what a lot of these elitists are. The ones that she never went to a cocktail party with in Georgetown. I'll be very frank with you. Who think that they can dictate what they believe to America rather than let Americans decide for themselves.

*

Firstly: Fuck you, John.

Secondly: Sounds like the 9/11 terrorists really screwed up attacking the two outposts of "fake America," huh? We probably shouldn't have even bothered picking up the pieces downtown, as the centers of this country's government and finance clearly don't matter as much as off-the-radar mining towns.

Thirdly: I don't know anyone in New York or DC who wants to "dictate what they believe to America rather than let Americans decide for themselves." In fact, I think that most of us would rather McCain, Palin and their friends kept what they believe about our bodies, our significant others, and our money to themselves and let us decide for ourselves.

Fourthly: Does anyone work at that campaign? Is elitism geographic or not? Get your stories straight.

Let Me Be Very Clear: This Election Is Over (UPDATED)

(Addition is at the bottom)

There are a lot of people making a lot of predictions about this election. What gives me more clout than everybody else? Nothing. But hey, I am the only kid you know tracking this stuff on a spreadsheet everyday.

McCain got his ass kicked yesterday. Excuse the French, but if I were a McCain supporter, yesterday is the day I would have finally admitted to myself that there is no chance.

The University of Wisconsin, whose track record gives me nothing to worry about (a month ago they had Obama up by 1 in WI and tied in MN) showed Obama with big leads, which I've listed here, followed by Kerry's margin of victory in 2004:

State	Obama	Kerry
Iowa	13	-1
Illinois	30	10
Indiana	10	-21
Michigan	22	3
Minnesota	19	4
Ohio	12	-2
Pennsylvania	10	3
Wisconsin	12	1

These numbers are huge. It's an average increase of 16 pts over Bush's numbers. You know how close the 2004 election was, and in that election huge states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all came down to the wire, though they all went for Kerry (plus Ohio, which went for Bush). To see those Kerry states not even be a worry is great for peace of mind, but better for campaign spending allocations. McCain pulling out of Michigan meant he was free to spend money on other states, but it also meant Obama was free to spend money on other states, too. But now I'm rambling; let's get back to the point.

Obama's core of 286 is still intact, with Colorado (Obama +5.3) remaining the closest state in the set. With leads of >2 pts, Obama has all but locked up Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Missouri and Indiana also give him leads of more than 2 points but have seen less polling, and Florida is just a whisper away. This all adds up to 375 EVs.

I list 160 of McCain's 163 EVs as safe, with an epic Obama ground game possibly giving him a shot at North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, or West Virginia. But Obama pulled most of his resources out of the first three a while back, and never really invested in West Virginia.

I'd say of the 375 EVs listed above, Indiana is Obama's toughest battle. But make no mistake, he's got 364 all but locked up. I'd estimate he does finish at 375, but it's still a little early for exact predicitons.

***********************************************

So, that means Obama's going to win in a landslide, right? Well, depends how you define landslide. It turns out that, looking at elections from a historical perspective, close elections are the exception and not the rule. Bush failed to win 300 EVs twice. Going back, the last times that happened were Jimmy Carter (1976), Woodrow Wilson (1916), and William McKinley (1900) - when there were only 447 total EVs.

So for reference, here's a list of electoral vote totals from past elections:

Year	President	EVs	Out Of
1788	George Washington	69	69
1792	George Washington	132	132
1796	John Adams	71	139
1800	Thomas Jefferson	73	138
1804	Thomas Jefferson	162	176
1808	James Madison	122	175
1812	James Madison	128	217
1816	James Monroe	183	217
1820	James Monroe	228	231
1824	John Quincy Adams	84	261
1828	Andrew Jackson	178	261
1832	Andrew Jackson	219	286
1836	Martin Van Buren	170	294
1840	William Henry Harrison	234	294
1844	James K. Polk	170	275
1848	Zachary Taylor	163	290
1852	Franklin Pierce	254	296
1856	James Buchanan	174	296
1860	Abraham Lincoln	180	303
1864	Abraham Lincoln	212	233
1868	Ulysses S. Grant	217	294
1872	Ulysses S. Grant	286	352
1876	Rutherford B. Hayes	185	369
1880	James A. Garfield	214	369
1884	Grover Cleveland	219	401
1888	Benjamin Harrison	233	401
1892	Grover Cleveland	277	444
1896	William McKinley	271	447
1900	William McKinley	292	447
1904	Theodore Roosevelt	336	476
1908	William Howard Taft	321	483
1912	Woodrow Wilson	438	531
1916	Woodrow Wilson	277	531
1920	Warren G. Harding	404	531
1924	Calvin Coolidge	382	531
1928	Herbert Hoover	444	531
1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	472	531
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	523	531
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	449	531
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	432	531
1948	Harry S. Truman	303	531
1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	442	531
1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	457	531
1960	John F. Kennedy	303	537
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	486	538
1968	Richard Nixon	301	538
1972	Richard Nixon	520	538
1976	Jimmy Carter	297	538
1980	Ronald Reagan	489	538
1984	Ronald Reagan	525	538
1988	George H. W. Bush	426	538
1992	Bill Clinton	370	538
1996	Bill Clinton	379	538
2000	George W. Bush	271	538
2004	George W. Bush	286	538

Update:
In 1824 John Quincy Adams became president even though Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more electoral votes.

In 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency even though his opponent Samuel J. Tilden received a majority of the popular vote.

In 1888 Benjamin Harrison ended Grover Cleveland's bid for re-election even though Cleveland won a plurality of the popular vote. Cleveland of course won his third bid for the presidency in the following election, making him the second of three presidents to win a plurality of the national popular vote three times (after Andrew Jackson, before Franklin Roosevelt).

In 2000 - well, let's just not go there.

you guys may have already seen or read about this - it was a little while ago - but it's great speech by labor leader and former AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka about Obama, race, and labor unions. Trumka's a really fascinating guy anyway...

http://blip.tv/file/1327725

Breaking News: MN-06

(If nothing special happens, then the title of this post is a link to the story in question)

McCarthy-wannabe Michele Bachmann just got the smackdown from the GOP. Even though she is ahead in a non-safe race, they've pulled all their ad money from her. I doubt they want her to lose so much as want to distance themselves from her, but even then. Wow. Never heard of this before.

Why McCain Will Lose

I mean, seriously. Just look at those last three pictures.

New Features

I'm playing around with "Blogger in Draft," so if you see some new features or something that looks funky, don't worry. Feel free to play around with it yourself.

Update: The "reactions" thing would be a cool idea if you could change it on a post-by-post basis.

Where Do You Get Your News?

I've got a variety of reasons for asking, but I'm looking to improve on my news sources a bit. There's the political ones, and typically I used Yahoo for general news because it was sufficient without doing anything wrong. Well now it's ugly as hell, and I'd like some help.

Here, I'll start. I tend to mostly go to RCP, HuffPo, and Drudge. A few others here and there, but that's the bulk of it (mostly because of the election).

pretty cool

courtesy of 30reasons.org

McCain's Best Strategy

Look, let's face it. John McCain is starting down the barrel of an electoral gun. You're his campaign manager. What are you going to do?

First of all, for two months McCain should have been making sure that America knew it was McCain-Palin against Obama-Wright. Or Wright-Obama. Take your pick.

But beyond that, it's clear now that the Sarah Palin pick is disastrous. She's now quite unpopular and, at $150,000, rather expensive. C'mon Maverick, grow some nads. Drop Sarah Palin.

Now, unfortunately the religious extremist joining McCain on the ticket has really excited the base. Were it a month ago McCain could go back and pick Lieberman or Ridge and still pass Electoral Politics 101. But it's not a month ago.

However, something happened in the last month: an epic economic meltdown. If only there was a VP candidate who frames himself as strong on the economy and a staunch conservative. I know it's brash; I know it's extreme. But John McCain has no options left. Mitt Romney for Vice President.

That's all I've got.

It's Over: Poll Shows Obama Up By 8 Points ...

... on family values!!!

Warren: We're not all that bad

It's been a long campaign, and there is little doubt that the enthusiasm for Obama's campaign is unprecedented in history. Nonetheless, it is Missouri that is solely responsible for record turnout at Obama's rallies, as his 100,000 spectators in St. Louis and 75,000 in Kansas City this past Saturday were a one-day record for his campaign.

And although there was some earlier worry that perhaps there's something wrong with the Show-Me State (if you think about it, it's not that bad of a nickname, really), I'd also like to add that Missouri's polling average has leapfrogged that of nearly every other swing state, and now Obama's lead puts Missouri first in line to be the next "Safe Obama" state.

I mean, seriously. Look how many freakin' people there are:
(And by the way, that's the arch on the right in the top picture)

Because You Should Re-Read It On Occasion

Hey, the first paragraph no longer ends by saying Obama would be the first "affirmative action president"!

Barack Obama - Conservapedia

What the Hell is the McCain Campaign Doing?

I refer you to the chart I posted yesterday. Now, if you start at the bottom and go up, McCain has to get every state up to and including Colorado to win this election (never heard that before ...).

So here's his new strategy. He does have the wisdom and foresight to abandon New Mexico and, yes, Iowa. Believe it or not, Mr. "I'm gonna give you a little straight talk - I oppose ethanol subsidies" McCain isn't going to win Iowa.

I'm sorry. But really?! You guys really figured that out? You're down 12.3 pts as of yesterday, and out of 28 polls in the state, you've been losing in 27 and tied in 1. Why the hell has that campaign spent a single dollar since September in Iowa?

OK, so congratulations, they've finally seen the light. They're abandoning Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. Wait, what?! Yes folks, the McCain campaign is giving up on Colorado.

Now let's look at our chart. If McCain wins all the states up to but not including Colorado, he of course falls short, with 265 EVs. So he's got to pick them up somewhere right?

So, his strategy is (say it quickly in your head), while defending Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, and Georgia, to make a play for Pennsylvania.

I'm sorry for my tone this morning, but I can't for the life of me understand what the hell they're thinking! If I were a Republican I'd be writing things right here that would certainly get me fired from my job. This is much worse than watching Kerry lie down and take those Swift Boat attacks. I mean, I guess they're looking at electoral votes, but come on! If you're going after a state where you're down 9 points why not go all out? You're down 18 in California ... twice the deficit, but more than twice the electoral votes, right?

The bottom line is that in many ways I would have been a better strategist than these loons. McCain took months to try to frame Obama, and finally the best he did was Paris Hilton. He failed Electoral Politics 101 when, after correctly pandering to the right during the primary, he incorrectly continued to pander to the right during the general, the pinnacle of which was one of the most disastrous VP choices in electoral history. With Palin, he failed rule no. 1: Do No Harm. Obama resisted the temptation to choose Hillary because his guys understood rule number one. McCain proceeded to fail on the bailout and fail on the "suspension of his campaign." Finally, he failed in trying to connect Obama to his shady associations, by choosing the third best guy to attack him with (really - you choose Bill Ayers over Rev. Wright and Tony Rezko?). This campaign is over. And even now, as we sit at about 364-174 or so, I still can't help but wonder - why is this election so close?

Plumbing

The New House Race of Interest (Updated)

"What I would say is that the news media should do a penetrating expose and take a look. I wish they would. I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out if they are pro-America or anti-American."

--Michele Bachmann (R-MN-06)


Freshman Congresswomen Michele Bachmann has turned on the overdrive (unfortunately, not my line) and gotten herself into trouble for calling for McCarthy-esque investigations into the patriotism of members of Congress. I'll now be watching her election race very closely. Here's a polling summary up to today, but look for plenty of polls in the near future now:

Public Opinion Strategies (R) - 10/13 - Tinklenberg 33, Bachmann 44
Grove Insight (D) - 10/11 - Tinklenberg 38, Bachmann 42
Grove Insight (D) - 08/20 - Tinklenberg 27, Bachmann 40

Unfortunately all three polls so far are partisan, so it's hard to tell what's going on, although even the Dem polls show Bachmann ahead. My average gives Bachmann a 9-pt lead.

Update:
"When Sarah Palin, herself no stranger to the most vile kind of mudslinging, says that your attacks are beyond the pale, I think you've officially crossed the line by any objective standard."
--Swing State Project

Idiotic Quote of the Day

"Secretary Powell says his endorsement is not about race... OK, fine. I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with."

--Rush Limbaugh, 10/19/08

Electoral Vote Report, 10/20

I've also updated the graphs on the right.

Enjoy:

Heads Up!

RCP, Oct 14 - Obama +8.2
RCP, Oct 20 - Obama +4.8

Can we, yet again, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

(Side note: Obama's quick rise came at a rate of almost exactly 1 pt per 3 days. If he loses 1 pt per 3 days for the 15 days until the election, then McCain would hold a 0.2 pt "lead" over Obama. Of course, this is unlikely without a significant crisis, so don't get too worried.)

Extra side note: I'm sure you've read, but:
Old fundraising record: Barack Obama, 2008 (August) - $66 million
New fundraising record: Barack Obama, 2008 (September) - $150 million.

Keep in mind that September's totals include the $10 or $11 million raised in both the twenty-four hours following the RNC, as well as the quasi-infamous Barbra Streisand dinner.

An Interesting Read

Of course I'd heard of Adam Brinckley (sp?) before, if nowhere else than the Report. He's the guy who, in February 2007, started a blog called "Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President." If nothing else, you gotta give the guy credit for his insight.

Anyway, after he was mentioned on 538 this morning, I decided to stop over and start reading it from early August on through the announcement of the pick. Nothing earth-shattering, but an interesting read nonetheless.

Firefox Add-ons

I am always looking for ways to improve my Internet experience, and to that end I decided to share the list of Firefox add-ons that I use:

DownThemAll- download manager;
Foxmarks- bookmarks synchronizer;
Google Preview- inserts a picture of each webpage into Google or Yahoo search results;
Smart Bookmarks Bar- switches the bookmarks toolbar to icons only;
Tab Mix Plus- tab and tab options manager;
Ubiquity- see earlier post about Ubiquity.

Anyone have any great add-ons I am missing? I feel as if I do not see out new ones often enough, so I will be sharing any new ones I get as I come across them.

How much have states been polled?

Nevermind the absolute meanings of the numbers, all that matters is what they are relative to each other. Are the most important states being polled the most?

And if anyone knows enough HTML to get these huge spaces to go away, I'm all ears.

State	Polling Strength
Florida	14.24
Ohio	13.17
Pennsylvania	9.22
North Carolina	9.09
Virginia	9.05
Colorado	7.62
Missouri	7.01
Georgia	6.98
Minnesota	5.57
Michigan	5.26
Wisconsin	4.90
New Mexico	4.83
California	4.70
Nevada	4.48
Oregon	4.48
New Hampshire	4.12
New Jersey	4.03
Indiana	3.89
Massachusetts	3.52
New York	3.46
Iowa	2.96
Washington	2.85
North Dakota	2.66
South Carolina	2.33
Alabama	2.14
Oklahoma	2.09
Connecticut	2.05
Texas	1.99
Delaware	1.98
Kansas	1.88
West Virginia	1.76
Mississippi	1.68
Illinois	1.49
Alaska	1.49
Montana	1.47
Wyoming	1.41
Kentucky	1.29
Vermont	1.26
Maine	1.07
Tennessee	0.90
Arizona	0.70
Nebraska	0.58
Louisiana	0.43
Rhode Island	0.41
Maryland	0.40
Arkansas	0.40
Hawaii	0.36
Idaho	0.33
Utah	0.26
South Dakota	0.24
District of Columbia	0.08

McCain, Obama actually funny at event

If you haven't seen these they're worth watching. Note that each of them does boring pleasantries for the final 3-4 minutes of their respective routines.

McCain One and Two
Obama One and Two

High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute

Story

So, my understanding is that what is at issue here is a big issue. In states throughout the country, most notably Ohio and Florida, Republicans are doing their best to ensure that new voter registrations must match either current state DMV records or current federal Social Security records.

Not a bad idea in theory, but if Bartholomew registers as Bart, my understanding is his application is eligible for rejection. And have you seen your driver's license number? I know it's tough to imagine someone who's job entails keying in that information off of applications to possibly make a mistake, but that would also invalidate your application.

In fairness to the GOP, I'd be pretty pissed if Mickey Mouse got to vote.

Link Dump Repository

Ok, so I sincerely doubt that I have the best ideas about how to go about this, but I think everyone is in agreement (Bart and I spoke briefly on the topic) that we should have a consolidated link resource. So I've taken all the links posted (tagged with "links") and listed them here (I took out a few of my own) and tried to organize them.

If anyone has better ideas of how to go about this, be bold. And remember, anyone can edit any post, as far as I know, so we won't have to go through the comments page, you can just edit this post directly.

Also, theoretically a link can be posted under multiple categories (like Gmail's "labels") but I didn't want to do that without consultation.

Also, I'm not sure how to signal updates to the list because even for me updating the date in the upper right corner is tedious, plus this format constrains discussions.

Humor:
Disappointing Map of America (10/14)
I Witnessed a Murder Today (10/14)
The funniest thing I've ever read about taking a shit (10/03)
Fake tape of McCain terrified by Palin presidency (10/03)
Obama pretends to punch McCain (10/03)
Colbert on Huck/Rudy/Palin @ RNC (first five minutes) (10/03)
Fake Disney Trailer: Hockey mom becomes VP (10/03)
McCain '08, Palin '09 (10/03)
Self-described "Colbert's best Athiest moments" (10/03)
Palin's got that "Bridge to Nowhere" speech down (09/18)
Bush or Batman? (09/12)
Matt Damon on Sarah Palin (09/11)
Garfield Minus Garfield (09/07)
The Nietzsche Family Circus (09/07)
Japanese Mario Fan Art (09/07)
Russian Mario (09/07)
Bowser's Minions (09/07)
Fiscal conservatives (comic)
Peter's Evil Overlord List

Political:
Amusing, but Not Funny, Bob Herbert (10/14)
Conservative Kathleen Parker opposes Palin (10/14)
New Yorker on Joe Biden (10/13)
Wall Street Journal on Obama's tax cuts (10/13)
Obama's tax cuts don't add up (10/10)
Obama will be great president, Frank Schaeffer (10/09)
More conservative love for Obama, David Brooks (10/08)
That One '08 (10/08)
You bought one hell of a party for AIG (10/08)
New website gets my hopes up by tracking the NPVIC (Wiki) (10/08)
Cindy McCain: Obama's is "dirtiest campaign in history" (10/08)
Lessons Learned from Information Sharing (10/07)
Bradley Effect (10/06)
Don't worry about Bradley Effect (10/06)
Obamanomics (10/03)
George "Macaca" Allen heads GOP Minority Outreach program (09/18)
Offshore Drilling is not the answer, NYT (09/11)
Biden responds to RNC (09/05)

Utility:
Free statistical software (10/03)
Another Pandora? (10/03)

Technology:
New morphing drone to be based on pterodactyl (Wiki) (10/08)
Dude designs like, totally futuristic cities and stuff (10/03)

Sports:
Hahahahaha Cubs Suck (10/06)

Other:
Marching band goes all video-gamey (10/03)
Gauss is so awesome (09/05)

News:
NYC bottles tap water (09/18)
Google moves data sites offshore, avoids regulation (09/15)

Mathematics:
Free statistical software (10/03)
Benford's Law (Statistics) (10/03)

Religion:

Sort of Interesting Quiz

Prioritize your issues, give your opinions, read which candidates are similar to you.

I'll leave my scores as a comment.

Being An Adult, 3.0

First, we terrified you with gruesome market horror stories in Episode I.

But then, we came back, and showed you a mortifying tale in Episode II.

As John McCain once said: If you think it's bad now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.


Previous episodes were on 9/17 and 9/30

And yes, it's true that if I'd put all this money in the mattress except for one payment, which I lit on fire and threw in the trash, I'd be richer.

Update: OK, so I just did the math. Since 9/18 one month ago, I've lost $511.01. At a 0% rate of return since 9/18, I would be at $2,880.00, instead I'm at $2,368.99.

Now There's A Thought

When you wake up on the morning of January 20, 2017, I'd say there's a better than 50-50 chance that Barack Obama is still the president. Just soak that in for a second.

Think It's Real?

Apparently Sarah Palin has more in common with W. than I thought.



Update: Creepy. I got an email saying that this post had been posted. When I clicked on it, the ad showing in my Gmail read "Sarah Palin's IQ is 120." (It was an ad for an online IQ test)

Irish Bookie Pays Out on Obama Bets

Told you that there was little reason to worry. This guy's already paying off as if the election was over.

McCain Can't Catch a Break

Just rumors at this point, but Joe the Plumber may be related to Charles Keating.

What are the odds? There's no hard fact at this point and after I saw something about this on Wikipedia I just linked to the first thing that came up when I googled it, so the Daily Kos article I linked to is pretty poor. Nonetheless, bad news for McCain if it's true.

Um...what?

McCain on abortion, at last night's debate:

"Just again, the example of the eloquence of Sen. Obama. He's health for the mother. You know, that's been stretched by the pro-abortion movement in America to mean almost anything. That's the extreme pro-abortion position, quote, 'health.'"

I mean, I know what he's saying - that, if Roe v Wade was struck down, making exceptions for "the health and life of the woman" presents a gray area, and that he views it as a pro-choice (NOT "pro-abortion," John) last-ditch effort to make abortion available - but I think he worded it really poorly. To me, it drives home the point that so many pro-lifers come off as valuing a woman's life less than driving down the number of abortions.

State Offices in Swing States

Work in progress. Using Wikipedia, the VA and WV Supreme Courts were not worth tracking down. NC's justices are elected by popular vote in "non-partisan" ways.

Also, for Supreme Courts, party affiliation reflects the party of the official who appointed the justice (typically Governor), not necessary the justice's own views.

State	Gov	Lt Gov	Sec/State	Att Gen	SC (D)	SC (R)
CO	Dem	Dem	Rep	Rep	5	2
VA	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
FL	Rep	Rep	Rep	Rep	5	2
MO	Rep	Rep	Dem	Dem	4	3
NV	Rep	Rep	Dem	Dem	1	6
OH	Dem	Dem	Dem	Dem	1	6
NC	Dem	Dem	Dem	Dem
IN	Rep	Rep	Rep	Rep	3	2
WV	Dem	None	Rep	Dem

the aftermath

Katie, I think you especially will appreciate this well-crafted euphemism (in bold below) employed by NYT in its article "Candidates Clash Over Character and Policy":

"At times showing anger and at others a methodical determination to make all his points, Mr. McCain pressed his Democratic rival on taxes, spending, the tone of the campaign and his association with the former Weather Underground leader William Ayers, using nearly every argument at his disposal in an effort to alter the course of a contest that has increasingly gone Mr. Obama’s way."

Methodical determination? How about repeating the same disputed points over and over again while Obama attempted to clarify and defend his policies?

Yes, I thought McCain had to reach for "the kitchen sink and the plumber" to try to make his points in this one.

Wow, Massachusetts.

I couldn't help but comment - there is generally a pretty loose correlation between a state's red/blue identity for presidential elections, and how it votes when it comes to Senators/Representatives/State Offices. But each of Massachusetts' 10 districts are rated "Safe Democrat," with only two representatives who have served fewer than 10 years in Congress. Even in the most partisan of states, a clean sweep like this is never seen.

Why I am giving up on John McCain

I know, right? I'm not for John McCain - it's tough to believe. But while I often mindlessly ramble about this sort of thing, this is something I really mean, and am really serious about.

I've said over and over that when it comes to Republicans, John McCain is about as good as they come. He does have a record of true bipartisanship in some areas, he once considered becoming a Democrat, and he's an all-around good guy. He's not the smartest guy ever and didn't demonstrate particular proficiency during his military career, but he really did act with honor amid circumstances under which no one is able to say for sure whether they could act so nobly. When it comes to policy his (long-term) record really does differ significantly from President Bush. Plus, in these economic times, it's tough to push the button for a Democrat pushing larger increases in government spending and smaller net tax cuts.

Because of Barack Obama, John McCain never had a chance at my vote this year. But if it were Kerry against McCain, I can't say for sure I'd color my ballot blue. It would depend on circumstance.

But I believe there's finally enough evidence to say for sure what many of Obama's supporters have said for some time - the old John McCain is gone.

We appear to be in a once-in-a-generation crisis. It's a situation that calls for leadership of historic proportions. It's a situation that calls for politics to take a back burner, and for us to put Country First. That John McCain has juxtaposed these actions with that slogan makes this all the more painful. You see, John McCain is the underdog in this election, and he's playing the underdog playbook pretty well.

But everything from the Palin pick to the attack ads to the unwillingness to tell his radical rally supporters to shut up shows that, for even the slightest chance at a comeback in the election, John McCain is willing to take the country down with him as he slides into defeat, at a time when we need unity more than ever. When he raises Bill Ayres, when Palin speaks of pallin', all they do divide us when we need to be united. All they do is increase distrust for the future president. All they do is make the job of repairing our problems that much more difficult.

The glory of the Old McCain is he was one of the few guys in Washington you could count on to never do exactly what he's doing. And that's why I've finally lost faith in John McCain.

I Hate Dick Morris

The guy regularly lives up to his first name. A former Clinton advisor, he now spends his days on FOX News insinuating about Obama's background.

Today he's come out with his electoral map. Oddly, it shows an Obama landslide, but only a crazy one, with Barack picking up Arizona and Tennessee. Dick Morris, I don't know what you're up to, but I still hate you.

Quick Link

*sighs*

Here's another one worth reading.

I <3 Bob Herbert

This is a great, if somewhat unspecific, op-ed regarding the lack of common sense in the campaign and country right now. A quick, refreshing read.

Amusing, but Not Funny

By BOB HERBERT

Another article John McCain won't read...

We have all made jokes about McCain's unfamiliarity with the Internet, but this article may be the best yet. Not only does this call into question his current decision-making abilities (i.e. this crazy bastard chooses to avoid the Internet), but also his potential for improvement (or at least some form of stop-loss on brainpower) in the future.

The 2008 Voter Turnout Measurement Problem

... just got more complicated.

I hypothesize that with everything we already know about the enthusiasm gap for each party this year, Obama's holding a clear lead in the polls would depress turnout on the Republican side ("we're gonna lose anyway") without having a similar effect on the Democratic side ("I don't care how much it looks like we're gonna win by, we aren't taking any chances this year"). The strength of Obama's ground game (a gamble in some senses) will be of critical interest to future political strategists; the actual effects, however, could be rather difficult to determine.

It's Time to Celebrate!

With a pair of glimmering Quinnipiac polls showing Obama up by 9 points in Colorado, the objective portion of my model has moved Colorado into the "safe" column in my objective table (the one I've been posting is the subjective one, though the numeric lead listed is not). As far as I'm concerned, you can take this as the end of the election.

Update: I posted a new chart for Colorado, but left the old one up, just for comparison.

I was for her before I was against her

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker the latest to turn her back on Sarah Palin.

Eh, I'm bored.

ALL POINTS BULLETIN

Holy crap. If there's an ounce of truth to this the election is over now no matter what happens.

Update: Missouri moves from McCain +1.4 to Obama +1.3 in my model. There hasn't been much polling in Missouri lately so this poll is weighted too heavily (in everyone's model, btw) so look closely for new polling in the state.

Two Obama articles worth reading

New Yorker on Joe Biden
Wall Street Journal on Obama's tax cuts

New Pollan article

I haven't had a chance to read it yet, but this week the NYT Magazine leads with an article by Michael Pollan about what the next president should do with regards to food in the USA.

My friends ...

"... we've got them just where we want them."

Campaign FAIL

EV Scorecard, 10/13

It doesn't work so well as a comment on the Master Thread, so here we go:

A new grammar debate: the serial comma.

Background information.

I would like a bit more arguing on this site, as we tend to agree on politics, the de facto topic of choice for this blog. To that end, I am curious to hear opinions on use of the serial comma. I am strongly in favor of the serial comma as the standard rather than the exception because it is the least likely form to lead to ambiguity. I will even go one step beyond this and argue that in the cases in which the serial comma would lead to ambiguity the sentence should be rephrased, as it is clearly confusing in its current form.

In case you would like to hear a song about the serial comma, check out "Oxford Comma" by Vampire Weekend. The band sounds like a strange combination of Peter Gabriel, The Police, and Paul Simon. Perfect time to use the serial comma.

Update: As it turns out, this is the 100th post on this site. Way to go, everyone. Chris, thanks for keeping this going when the rest of us slack off. I don't know about everyone else, but I appreciate the updates even when I am not posting regularly.

Holy 50%, Batman!

Sweet. Obama's finally polling at 50% over at RCP. To get an idea of how painful it's been to watch for this, click and drag on the graph such that only October's polling is showing. It's been a long wait.

But, as I've said before, hitting 50% in a polling average typically means it's all but over, barring the ole October surprise, which most commentators (and I agree) seem to think already happened with the stock market. Ask yourself the question: if they caught bin Laden today, do you think McCain could actually pull it out? I'm skeptical.

Paul Krugman, Really?

I'll not say much since this is probably a topic you guys have thoughts on, but let me just say that based on the times I've seen him on TV, I wouldn't have guessed Paul Krugman was Nobel Prize kinda stuff. I hold him in pretty mediocre regard, really.

Some refreshing historical perspective

I enjoyed this article. It made me take a step back. Link.

And So It Begins ...

... here we go folks. It's going to be a long election.

Interesting side-effect of adaptation

New Scientist published a blurb that discusses the impact on climate of placing reflective greenhouses in arid parts of Spain. Obviously not the be-all, end-all of global warming, but a nice surprise.

YAY

Breaking News 11:39 AM ET:

Connecticut State Supreme Court Overturns Ban on Same-Sex Marriage

(NYT)


One by one...

Which Obama Will Be President?

Will we see the hard left economic policies of Candidate Obama, or the free-market lover in the New York Times article? I hate articles written in this style, but if it's the first one, some important questions show tough times could be ahead (in my opinion)

Be Careful With The "L" Word

We're all getting excited, and who can blame us? Barack Obama has been trading at almost exactly 50% on Intrade since he locked up the nomination, but has shot up to nearly 80% in the last week and a half. Analysts are saying McCain has no shot. McCain's own campaign is clearly in emergency mode. He even conceded Michigan's 17 EVs.

But this election is not over. History shows that elections trend tighter as the finish approaches. Obama's lead is generally placed at 5-6%. I don't think it's unreasonable to assert that there's a good chance Johnny Mac could scrape back a few points, and bring him down to 3-4%.

And here's the thing - my model shows Obama's lead is less than 2% in quite a few states. In fact, he would only hold on to his core of 264 EVs, plus Colorado and Virginia, where I show him up by 3.0% and 3.3% respectively. Now this gets him to 286 EVs (interestingly, the number GWB carried in '04) which is plenty to win, but not enough to start your party early.

So I'm not trying to scare you, but there are still a few ways this could go wrong. 538 shows that if Obama loses Ohio, he's only got a 2/3 chance at winning the election, and I wouldn't consider Ohio "in the bag" by any means.

Liberally speaking, VA, CO, NV, FL, OH, NC, MO, and IN are still in play. I pity the fool who's got to win every single one of those states; nonetheless, the fat lady's still not ready to go on.

The gods are totally going to strike Frank Schaeffer down...

...because he is seriously tempting fate here.

It's exciting to read, though.

Obama Will Be One of The Greatest (and Most Loved) American Presidents

One more to start the morning...

Iceland going bankrupt?

I really enjoyed reading this article through the lens of basic economic theory. The thing that really stuck with me was dichotomy of reactions: some Icelanders (?) are rushing out and buying Rolexes, hoping to cash out their chips (read: watches) elsewhere; others have been gripped by an impressive calm of reason, as can be best epitomized by this quote from the now-bankrupt Elvis of Iceland: "'What is important at a time like this is not picking out whom to blame,' he said. 'We have a government that is trying to do their best, but we will have to see what they come up with. Maybe it is a new dawn for Iceland.'"

I fear that in the USA we have far more of the former category, with the anti-intellectualism trend winning out by a significant margin. That said, I don't think the USA has seen the worst of its bank-run potential on display yet; just wait for the government to take a controlling stake in many of the major banks. Seriously, we need to get on a discussion about the precedents being set right now, because they are a little scary.

Greenspan's new legacy

I really enjoyed this article. I am too tired to start it now, but I think a discussion about the Fed and the precedent-setting nature of its recent actions would be worthwhile.

Good article

"But there has been a counter, more populist tradition, which is not only to scorn liberal ideas but to scorn ideas entirely. And I'm afraid that Sarah Palin has those prejudices."

"He's phenomenally good at surrounding himself with a team. I disagree with them on most issues, but I am given a lot of comfort by the fact that the people he's chosen are exactly the people I think most of us would want to choose if we were in his shoes."

-David Brooks from Huffington Post

After this I'll be done pulling stupid lefty graphics from Daily Kos, I swear...

...but again, I find this one kinda funny.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/7/235723/393/919/623521

Morning News Rundown

You bought one hell of a party for AIG

New website gets my hopes up by tracking the NPVIC (Wiki)

New morphing drone to be based on pterodactyl (Wiki)
Actually, this is cool. The dino in question could walk on all fours, or just two, or fly.

Cindy McCain: Obama's is "dirtiest campaign in history"

Palin debate flow chart

This is from Daily Kos, which is ....Daily Kos, so obviously break out your nugget of salt, but this is pretty funny.

random link

Sometimes interesting or provoking things come my way at work. I just registered with this program and really found it incredible that it even exists- an organized arm of a governmental project. The service is both efficient, productive, and, get this- useful. Granted, it is only for us DHS employees and affiliates, but still.

Check it out: Lessons Learned

Random thoughts on 1996 election

I did a quick read on the '96 election when I was looking to see Bill's EV total. I got a little curious about how in the hell Bob Dole, who had already been dead for 15 years, got the nomination. I came across two interesting little tidbits along the way:

Bob Dole carried 47 states. Of the remaining four, Pat Buchanan won Missouri, Louisiana, and New Hampshire, none of which have anything in common with any of the other. Steve Forbes won New Mexico. Weird. Also, Buchanan is from Virginia and Forbes is from New York, so neither carried his home state even though he carried other states (can we please call this Al Gore Syndrome?)

Also, Jack Kemp endorsed Steve Forbes over Bob Dole, before Bob Dole made him his running mate.

Oops

If you are set to receive new posts by email then you saw that earlier I reported some pretty exciting scenarios for Obama (anywhere from 318 to 375 EVs). I didn't realize I had accidentally cut the half-life on my polls from 25 to 10 days, so newer polls were more heavily weighted. That may not be an unreasonable estimation given that we had a sudden event, but I'm still going with the more conservative method.

Either way, my latest update is in the EV master thread.

Oh, and one more thought: a few polls out today indicate the race may be tightening slightly. I'll keep you posted.

Predictions for the debate

I saw the cartoon below and immediately became elated because Biden will not have to appear in public ever again before the election.





That said, I was hoping to hear predictions about the debate tomorrow night. I think McCain may attempt to continue the negative streak, but will hit a stone wall (perhaps a Stonewall is more appropriate, as many of us went to NYU) because of both Obama's ability to counter gracefully and also the town-hall style of the debate. Also because of the format, I feel it will be easier for Obama to do well; McCain is a zombie, after all. I don't really have anything else to add on this topic, so I will move on.

Question: why is there no debate closer to the election? Is this simply an effort to prevent a post-debate bump from deciding the election? Or, is it a vast, liberal media plot to prevent John McCain's sparkling personality and graceful way with words from winning over the undecideds and the weak liberals? Thoughts?

Does race really matter?

For a lot of this campaign, I've been worried - sort of closet-worried, actually, because I feel weird talking about it - about the Bradley effect - basically the idea that lots of white people are closet-racists and, when they get the polling booth, will flash back to 9/11, see how much the name on their ballot resembles "Osama," and vote McCain. Or just decide they can't handle a black president.

But this NYTimes article - which, fair warning, rambles a bit - tells me the issue of race is both more complex and less worrisome than I thought. It's a good read.

P.S. Now that the Cubs have choked, I'm even more neurotically worried about Obama, despite the polls. I really thought that this was the year for both of them.

The VP's VP

It's January 20, 2009. [John McCain/Barack Obama] is being sworn is as president. Some guy who's spent his whole life talking about how [white people/black people] are ruining this country grabs his [Assault rifle/Sawed-off shotgun] and kills the president. [Sarah Palin/Joe Biden] is sworn in.

Now, it will matter in one case more than in the other but either way it's still relevant: how does a new VP get chosen? I emailed the guy at electoral-vote.com because he knows lots of stuff like this and talks about it all the time.

Chris
If Obama or McCain die in office, how would Biden/Palin then choose their new VP?

The Votemaster
Biden: by consulting with the Senate, cabinet and others
Palin: by asking the other hockey moms on her kids' teams

Fortunately, the Senate has to confirm the appointment.

Talk about your slow-play

In poker, a slow play is when you get a killer hand early on, but wait to use it to your advantage (by betting big) until the later rounds of betting.

I wondered why Charles Keating hadn't been in the news more, or been part of Obama's campaign. Well now we know: he's got a whole website devoted to the association. I'm so glad to see Democrats with a well-run campaign.

I Called It

So, I'll follow up on this later, but it seems I was Wright in predicting McCain's new campaign strategy (what a knee slapper!) and he's about to go all-negative, all-the-time. It won't work because you can't go negative against candidates with very high approval ratings (both Obama and McCain have had good favorability ratings all season), but it's the only card he's got left and he's right to play it.

Also, a lot of people are saying that John McCain is making a mistake by pulling out of Michigan. If there is a mistake to his Michigan strategy, it's that he didn't pull out sooner. He's never had a real shot at Michigan, but its 17 EVs are tempting. I'll write more about McCain's strategy from an EV perspective soon, but he's just screwed.

Link Dump! (Updated)

Been meaning to do this for weeks. (Now prioritized)

First Tier:
The funniest thing I've ever read about taking a shit.
Obamanomics (already frequented in this group, but whatever)
The Sun has identity issues (just a pic)
Fake tape of McCain terrified by Palin presidency (this is damn funny)
Best 'In Memorium" ever
Only if you'd probably hate Bristol's future husband
IF ONLY
If you keep it open for 10 seconds, you will find it hilarious
Colbert on Huck/Rudy/Palin @ RNC: First five minutes are classic (gotta love Joe L)
Speaking of Joe Lieberman - best line ever? (DNC 2000)
Paraphrase: "Politics is a lot like driving. When you want to go forward, you put it in 'D'. If you want to go backward, you put it in 'R.'"
Fake Disney Trailer: Hockey mom becomes VP
(OK, so I thought it was hilarious, but no one else has yet, just watch it twice)
New Obama ad scares voters - imagine if McCain wins
I think these arguments are B.S., but here's Obama living more modestly than McCain
The REAL ticket (and why to vote against it)
Marching band goes all video-gamey. (kinda cool, even though the performance is subpar)

Second Tier:
Free statistical software (OK, I haven't taken advantage, but you might)
Another Pandora? (I haven't used this, either)
Benford's Law (Statistics)
Textbook Wheel (Goddammit I haven't been to any of these sites)
Testimony on rigging Ohio in 2004 (only worth watching if you really want to)
The "Is-Is" Epidemic (props to Bart, probably already linked here)
McCain anti-earmark ad includes Palin's earmark
Another Obama lolcat site (not that I'm endorsing Katie's friends' competitors)
My favorite tag on Katie's friends' site (told ya)
Rachel Ray accidentally goes flying past PG-13 (kinda funny)
A lil' anti-religion humor
Things you wish you'd thought of in elementary school
Probably not funny without the last line
Only if you're a bit sick in the head
Only if you've ever been "rickrolled"
Self-described "Colbert's best Athiest moments" (I haven't seen 'em all)
A semi-interesting article on Spitzer's prostitute
You can't feel sorry for GWB, but if you wanted to, here's how
BellX1: Linked to Wiki not music, but saw them open for Stars and really liked 'em
NYT a few days ago on bailout, can't remember why I saved it
Not-so-intelligent design (not for squeamish, but now that I put that, you'll look anyway)
(Never realized "squeamish" had so many consecutive vowels)
If Miley Cyrus was Oil, from the Onion (mildly funny)
Dude designs like, totally futuristic cities and stuff

Ubiquity, Firefox, and the future of the Internet

Some of you know that I am a huge advocate of Quicksilver, a launch-bar-like program that allows you to more quickly and easily interact with and manipulate digital information, programs, websites, images, etc. (Unfortunately, this is a Mac-only program. I say unfortunately because some people still use PCs, foolishly)

Firefox is slowly catching up to the newest developments in digital interaction through Ubiquity. I highly recommend everyone check it out as a time-saver (and also as one of those things that makes you look super-cool in front of others).

I'm such a disappointment

The guys from 538 (not Nate) were just down the street from me last night and I didn't go buy them beers. I am so sorry to all of you.

Obama to shift focus to health care

I sort of wondered and hoped all summer if the reason that Barack Obama was spending so little time on the economy (an issue on which the people always side with the Democrats) was so as not to "wear it out" or "use it up" so that he could drive it home in the final months.

It appears that he's doing exactly that with health care (he didn't have much choice on the economy), another issue on which Americans heavily favor Democrats. I think this is a fantastic strategy and I'm really excited, as I was just starting to wonder why they weren't discussing it more.

Here's the story and their latest ad, which is taken straight from the VP debate.

oh also

you guys might enjoy LOLbama.com, creating by a couple of my high school friends. Pure fluff, but some of it's pretty funny. Apologies if I should have posted this in a links section...

"She succeeded by not failing in any obvious way."

(the above is quote from today's New York Times)

Completely outside of my thoughts on the debate itself, I've found the media coverage to be just ...strange.

I've seen the above statement, in one iteration or another, in practically every major newspaper today. Yes, expectations for Palin were stupendously low, and yes, she exceeded them. But is this really all that matters? Lack of a "I read anything that's put in front of me"-level fuck-up?

I'm frustrated because I feel like all I'm reading about the debate is "well, neither of them doomed their ticket." I guess that in some ways, that really is all that it was about, given the VP's Constitutional lack of power (despite all signs to the contrary from Cheney), but they discussed a huge range of topics, and it seems like everyone who didn't watch and relies on the news for their information to inform their decision-making isn't getting much today.

Thoughts?

Somebody help me out

If a president dies and the vice president moves up to the presidency, what are the rules (if any) governing the former VP's new VP pick? That is, what do we or can we know about who Joe Biden and Sarah Palin would choose in the "what-if" scenario?

WTF M.O. your the only swing state still in McCain's Camp.

Seriously.

Bloomberg Seeks Third Term

Me, I'm almost always opposed to the circumvention of rules to keep a current regime in power, but I was curious what those closer to the action thought. It seems he's playing the "Can the city really survive without me?" card, which is a tough hand to go with if it didn't work for Rudy.

Discussion Topic: VP Debate

As much as I love talking to office cohorts about these things, I was hoping for some reasonable input. Gimme some thoughts on anything. Should Gwen Ifill step down? Who's going to win, and what does that mean? What does each side need to do or avoid? Can Biden get himself booted from the ticket by the end of the week? Can Palin?

Personally, I'd like to see them get in a more politically-well-phrased variant of the line "What's the difference between Sarah Palin and George W. Bush? -Lipstick," but I don't know if that's feasible with SuperGaffe at the helm.

Nicolas Sarkozy reads our site

France is putting pressure Gordon Brown to pass a European bailout, something that came up here pretty recently.

OK, I was wrong

So, I've taken a lot of flak from a lot of people because I've always said that I had a lot of respect for William F. Buckley, even though I couldn't name a single issue on which we agreed. I admit, he is kind of a dick, mentioning in 2004 that he respected John Kerry because he was regarded as the second-best debator in the whole university while he attended Yale - before mentioning that it was Buckley himself who was regarded as number one. But his arguments were (mostly) good and command of English among the best I've ever seen, so I read him more than any other conservative columnist.

The short version of the story is that since the third child born to his son Christopher Buckley (Thank You For Smoking) is the product of an out-of-wedlock affair, the 8-year-old with ADHD is being intentionally and explicitly excluded from the parsing of William's $30M estate. I could drone on, but the point is that that's just cold.

States and Probability: A Simple Method

(Note: I don't know why the table starts so far down, feel free to fix it if you can)

OK, so I've been foiled a few times. An earlier version of this post wasn't saved into the comments on the EV Master Thread, and the HTML-intensive nature of this post means I can't make it a comment on that thread.

So as the picture gets complicated (take NC, where everyone in the country thinks it's a toss up but my math still shows it's solid McCain) I like to have a common sense test, so I added a feature that simply counts the number of times each candidate has been ahead or tied in a poll in the given state.

Clearly this method has problems. If a state has two polls, a bad poll from May putting Obama up by 5 and a good poll from October putting McCain up by 5, they will each have 1 "point". So I then added another line to weight each poll by pollster quality and date. Then, I took the percent of times Obama was in the lead under each methodology and I also added the current probability from 538 into the following table. The table is in order by my actual mathematical average.

State	Signs	Signs2	538
DC	100	100	100
HI	100	100	100
VT	100	100	100
MD	100	100	100
DE	100	100	99
NY	96	100	99
MA	89	100	99
RI	100	100	99
IL	100	100	99
CT	100	100	98
CA	100	100	98
OR	95	100	96
IA	96	93	94
ME	100	100	93
NJ	88	100	95
WA	96	100	96
NM	76	84	89
MI	79	88	88
WI	89	99	90
PA	75	92	84
MN	89	94	90
CO	71	72	84
VA	46	51	78
NH	74	70	71
NV	41	28	67
OH	38	31	67
FL	29	33	58
IN	25	24	50
MO	17	3	43
NC	13	25	44
WV	0	0	22
MT	20	11	17
ND	25	13	16
AR	0	0	9
GA	0	0	11
LA	0	0	8
TX	0	0	8
MS	0	0	6
SC	0	0	5
AZ	0	0	7
SD	0	0	6
KY	0	0	3
TN	0	0	2
KS	0	0	3
AK	0	0	5
NE	0	0	2
AL	0	0	1
WY	0	0	1
OK	0	0	0
ID	0	0	1
UT	0	0	1

The Case Against Discussing John McCain's Health

And it's not political. It's just reasonable.

Given his previous skin cancer but otherwise relatively healthy life, we know John McCain's chances of surviving the next 5-10 years peak out at around 2/3 or 67%.

No matter how unhealthy he really is, he's been going around campaigning just about as hard as I could for a year now, so he's got to be reasonably healthy. Say his chances bottom out at around 1/3, or 33%.

So if McCain's chances of survival are between 1/3 and 2/3, that means that the merits of his VP choice are absolutely on the table, but that his death is not to be regarded as certain. And no matter how much else we know or jockey around with when it comes to McCain's health, that previous sentence won't change. So I think everybody should cut the guy a little slack on the health issue.

Scattered Morning Thoughts

The corruption trial of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens (R) moves forward today. Accused of accepting bribes in the form of home improvement work, his honest-to-god defense today is apparently going to be "I asked him to bill me every cent and that darned contractor only charged me X." Good luck, Uncle Ted.

Speaking of Alaska politicians who have no business running for election in 2008 - no, not Don Young, silly, but I've got plenty coming on him, too - Sarah Palin's debate chances are getting better everyday, the way I see it. Why? The moderator of the debate is Gwen Ifill.

Oh, that doesn't tell you the whole story? My fault. Allow me to explain. See, Gwen Ifill is a woman. That's good for us. The right wing can't complain about how sexist the moderator was. However, Gwen Ifill is a black woman. And not just any black woman. She's a black woman who's releasing a book on the day of Obama's (hopeful) inauguration as president that is titled The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama. I mean, seriously? Everything she says is going to get criticized, but thankfully the American public has really turned on Sarah Palin. Gear up the spin machines, this one's gettin' ugly.

Speaking of Palin and the VP debate, it just occurred to me yesterday that I drive by the Field House at Wash U everyday on my way to work (in fact, I have to find a different way tomorrow because of the debate). I wish I could get a seat, but they're reserved for students. Apparently the CPD usually gives out about 150 tickets, and this year 7,500 students registered for them (Wash U has 6,000 undergrads). That's our record, and it's only for the VP debate. Holy cow.

Hey, when's the last time NYU hosted a debate? Because Wash U has been chosen for five straight elections. (Notice the careful phrasing - we didn't host one in 1996 because Bill Clinton decided there were too many so he cancelled)

(And speaking of the debate: I thought this was priceless)

Finally, 538 has an article today about favorability ratings and the debates. I noticed yesterday that there had been a sharp change in favorability ratings in the last couple days, and he shows that Obama didn't gain independents as much as harden his support among Democrats. I thought it highly likely, and later in the article he agreed, that this could be the Hillary Clinton voters (PUMAs) finally coming over to our side (in a separate article it turns out health care was one of his most significant lines - who knew?), which would probably throw the election into - my new favorite phrase - "minor landslide" mode. Perhaps I could use the phrase "Clinton landslide" since it looks like it may mirror Bill's EV figures, but either way, that's the path we're on at the moment.

European Politicians Getting Bailout

Coming back from lunch NPR had a whole slew of politicians from across the pond calling on America to "take responsibility" and pass a bailout. What fortune for them. They get to bash America and call on someone else to do the heavy lifting on something they themselves will benefit from, both directly and indirectly. If they want to talk that kind of talk I'd like to see them chip in. Would the world tell us to "take responsibility" if we got hit by a $700B hurricane?

Misleading Claims by McCain on Obama’s Tax Plans

I knew there was something fishy about McCain's claim in the debate that Obama "wants to raise taxes on people making only $42,000 a year." And I was right. Shocker.

This article in the Times debunks several lies McCain has told about Obama's tax policy, as well as a couple that Obama's made about McCain.

Out of curiosity, what do you guys think of Obama's proposed tax policy? I support it, but have read a lot of mixed reactions....

Space Flight

OK, maybe this is old news by now but the first private spacecraft made orbit the other day. I'm (obviously) a big proponent of private spaceflight and look forward to going into space.

Now if only we could get that Space Elevator thing going.

(I just want to add: when I get depressed about the state of our world, I like to spend 5 minutes reading about the space elevator. It's just so unbelievably cool.)

Senate Race Master Thread

Same as EV Master Thread

Electoral Vote Master Thread

OK, I'm gonna perma-link this post and subsequent would-be posts will be added as comments to this thread.

Also, pictures that go with the posts will just have to go here, because I don't think I can include them as comments.

Pictures:
EVs, 09/11
Colorado, 09/25

Sucks to be an adult 2.0

(Compare to two weeks ago)

It Feels Nice

... to beat Nate Silver by nearly two weeks.
Me. Him.

Discussion Topic: Economy

I'm going to link to this on the right so we can have one discussion thread.

House Race Master Thread

This will be my main thread for posting about elections in the U.S. House of Representatives

Images:

September 29, 2008:


October 22, 2008: (sorry it got flip-turned upside-down)