Showing posts with label EVs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EVs. Show all posts
November 04, 2008
Election Projection, Final Version
(Basically, I updated the graphic with the new poll data and backed out on leaning Missouri to Obama)
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama.(Very) Weak Obama. Weak McCain.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech.(Very) Weak McCain.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up showsObama 364, McCain 174 Obama 353, McCain 185 with Obama 353 McCain 185 Obama 364, McCain 174 and Obama 375 McCain 163 being the second- and third-most likely scenarios.
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 353-185 differs from the graphic's 364-174.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up shows
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 353-185 differs from the graphic's 364-174.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Election Projection, Beta Version
(The numbers here are subject to change as the day goes on)
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama. (Very) Weak Obama.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech. (Very) Weak McCain.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up shows Obama 364, McCain 174 with Obama 353 McCain 185 and Obama 375 McCain 163 being the second- and third-most likely scenarios.
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 364-174 differs from the graphic's 375-163.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama. (Very) Weak Obama.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech. (Very) Weak McCain.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up shows Obama 364, McCain 174 with Obama 353 McCain 185 and Obama 375 McCain 163 being the second- and third-most likely scenarios.
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 364-174 differs from the graphic's 375-163.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
October 31, 2008
I Call Ohio for Obama
This is a tough call. Ohio's a big prize - you don't want to blow that one.
In many ways this race seems close. It's currently Obama 48.9, McCain 44.8. Obama slightly underperformed Nate's model in the primaries.
But here's why I called it. I currently project Obama to win by 3.75 pts. That's a lot of ground to make up, and it's not like it's only a statistical fluke - it represents a weighted average of 83 polls, including 30 in October. What really did it for me was recent polling.
Obama hasn't trailed in a single non-partisan poll (there have been 14) since October 19. His latest leads are 4, 4, 9, 4, 7, 3, 5, 7, 11, and 10. It's tough to argue with those numbers, and tough for McCain to overcome them.
Obama will now be working from a core of 311 EVs on election night.
In many ways this race seems close. It's currently Obama 48.9, McCain 44.8. Obama slightly underperformed Nate's model in the primaries.
But here's why I called it. I currently project Obama to win by 3.75 pts. That's a lot of ground to make up, and it's not like it's only a statistical fluke - it represents a weighted average of 83 polls, including 30 in October. What really did it for me was recent polling.
Obama hasn't trailed in a single non-partisan poll (there have been 14) since October 19. His latest leads are 4, 4, 9, 4, 7, 3, 5, 7, 11, and 10. It's tough to argue with those numbers, and tough for McCain to overcome them.
Obama will now be working from a core of 311 EVs on election night.
October 29, 2008
EV Report, 10/29/08
Not much to report, but I'll be out of the office Thursday and Monday, leaving only today, Friday, and Election Day for me to chip in the ol' two cents.
I added a column which is Obama's proportion in the weighted signs test. Again, my signs test is just how many polls each candidate has led in, straight up. The weighted signs test weights each poll by pollster and date, so newer better polls count more. It actually passes a common sense test for the probability of an Obama victory in nearly all states.
As reported earlier, NV finally meandered over to the safe column. Missouri and North Carolina definitely lean Obama but aren't locked up. And I still hate you Indiana.
Actually, the third column may not have been there earlier. That's the sum of the poll weights in a state. The higher the number, the higher the level of good, recent polling in the state.
I added a column which is Obama's proportion in the weighted signs test. Again, my signs test is just how many polls each candidate has led in, straight up. The weighted signs test weights each poll by pollster and date, so newer better polls count more. It actually passes a common sense test for the probability of an Obama victory in nearly all states.
As reported earlier, NV finally meandered over to the safe column. Missouri and North Carolina definitely lean Obama but aren't locked up. And I still hate you Indiana.
Actually, the third column may not have been there earlier. That's the sum of the poll weights in a state. The higher the number, the higher the level of good, recent polling in the state.
October 24, 2008
Weekend Update: 11 Days to Go
(My 100th post)
Click on the image to view full size.
The reason Indiana seems out of place is that its polling has been quite erratic, I've heard little about Obama's ground game there, and it's polling strength is the weakest of any state on the list from Missouri to North Carolina.
Actually, interestingly NV, MO, and IN are nearly identical in their polling strength, which is far weaker than that of OH, FL, and NC, which are also nearly identical.
I have two October polls for North Dakota and nineteen for North Carolina.
Click on the image to view full size.
The reason Indiana seems out of place is that its polling has been quite erratic, I've heard little about Obama's ground game there, and it's polling strength is the weakest of any state on the list from Missouri to North Carolina.
Actually, interestingly NV, MO, and IN are nearly identical in their polling strength, which is far weaker than that of OH, FL, and NC, which are also nearly identical.
I have two October polls for North Dakota and nineteen for North Carolina.
Let Me Be Very Clear: This Election Is Over (UPDATED)
(Addition is at the bottom)
There are a lot of people making a lot of predictions about this election. What gives me more clout than everybody else? Nothing. But hey, I am the only kid you know tracking this stuff on a spreadsheet everyday.
McCain got his ass kicked yesterday. Excuse the French, but if I were a McCain supporter, yesterday is the day I would have finally admitted to myself that there is no chance.
The University of Wisconsin, whose track record gives me nothing to worry about (a month ago they had Obama up by 1 in WI and tied in MN) showed Obama with big leads, which I've listed here, followed by Kerry's margin of victory in 2004:
These numbers are huge. It's an average increase of 16 pts over Bush's numbers. You know how close the 2004 election was, and in that election huge states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all came down to the wire, though they all went for Kerry (plus Ohio, which went for Bush). To see those Kerry states not even be a worry is great for peace of mind, but better for campaign spending allocations. McCain pulling out of Michigan meant he was free to spend money on other states, but it also meant Obama was free to spend money on other states, too. But now I'm rambling; let's get back to the point.
Obama's core of 286 is still intact, with Colorado (Obama +5.3) remaining the closest state in the set. With leads of >2 pts, Obama has all but locked up Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Missouri and Indiana also give him leads of more than 2 points but have seen less polling, and Florida is just a whisper away. This all adds up to 375 EVs.
I list 160 of McCain's 163 EVs as safe, with an epic Obama ground game possibly giving him a shot at North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, or West Virginia. But Obama pulled most of his resources out of the first three a while back, and never really invested in West Virginia.
I'd say of the 375 EVs listed above, Indiana is Obama's toughest battle. But make no mistake, he's got 364 all but locked up. I'd estimate he does finish at 375, but it's still a little early for exact predicitons.
***********************************************
So, that means Obama's going to win in a landslide, right? Well, depends how you define landslide. It turns out that, looking at elections from a historical perspective, close elections are the exception and not the rule. Bush failed to win 300 EVs twice. Going back, the last times that happened were Jimmy Carter (1976), Woodrow Wilson (1916), and William McKinley (1900) - when there were only 447 total EVs.
So for reference, here's a list of electoral vote totals from past elections:
Update:
In 1824 John Quincy Adams became president even though Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more electoral votes.
In 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency even though his opponent Samuel J. Tilden received a majority of the popular vote.
In 1888 Benjamin Harrison ended Grover Cleveland's bid for re-election even though Cleveland won a plurality of the popular vote. Cleveland of course won his third bid for the presidency in the following election, making him the second of three presidents to win a plurality of the national popular vote three times (after Andrew Jackson, before Franklin Roosevelt).
In 2000 - well, let's just not go there.
There are a lot of people making a lot of predictions about this election. What gives me more clout than everybody else? Nothing. But hey, I am the only kid you know tracking this stuff on a spreadsheet everyday.
McCain got his ass kicked yesterday. Excuse the French, but if I were a McCain supporter, yesterday is the day I would have finally admitted to myself that there is no chance.
The University of Wisconsin, whose track record gives me nothing to worry about (a month ago they had Obama up by 1 in WI and tied in MN) showed Obama with big leads, which I've listed here, followed by Kerry's margin of victory in 2004:
| State | Obama | Kerry |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 13 | -1 |
| Illinois | 30 | 10 |
| Indiana | 10 | -21 |
| Michigan | 22 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 19 | 4 |
| Ohio | 12 | -2 |
| Pennsylvania | 10 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 12 | 1 |
These numbers are huge. It's an average increase of 16 pts over Bush's numbers. You know how close the 2004 election was, and in that election huge states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all came down to the wire, though they all went for Kerry (plus Ohio, which went for Bush). To see those Kerry states not even be a worry is great for peace of mind, but better for campaign spending allocations. McCain pulling out of Michigan meant he was free to spend money on other states, but it also meant Obama was free to spend money on other states, too. But now I'm rambling; let's get back to the point.
Obama's core of 286 is still intact, with Colorado (Obama +5.3) remaining the closest state in the set. With leads of >2 pts, Obama has all but locked up Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Missouri and Indiana also give him leads of more than 2 points but have seen less polling, and Florida is just a whisper away. This all adds up to 375 EVs.
I list 160 of McCain's 163 EVs as safe, with an epic Obama ground game possibly giving him a shot at North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, or West Virginia. But Obama pulled most of his resources out of the first three a while back, and never really invested in West Virginia.
I'd say of the 375 EVs listed above, Indiana is Obama's toughest battle. But make no mistake, he's got 364 all but locked up. I'd estimate he does finish at 375, but it's still a little early for exact predicitons.
***********************************************
So, that means Obama's going to win in a landslide, right? Well, depends how you define landslide. It turns out that, looking at elections from a historical perspective, close elections are the exception and not the rule. Bush failed to win 300 EVs twice. Going back, the last times that happened were Jimmy Carter (1976), Woodrow Wilson (1916), and William McKinley (1900) - when there were only 447 total EVs.
So for reference, here's a list of electoral vote totals from past elections:
| Year | President | EVs | Out Of |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1788 | George Washington | 69 | 69 |
| 1792 | George Washington | 132 | 132 |
| 1796 | John Adams | 71 | 139 |
| 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | 73 | 138 |
| 1804 | Thomas Jefferson | 162 | 176 |
| 1808 | James Madison | 122 | 175 |
| 1812 | James Madison | 128 | 217 |
| 1816 | James Monroe | 183 | 217 |
| 1820 | James Monroe | 228 | 231 |
| 1824 | John Quincy Adams | 84 | 261 |
| 1828 | Andrew Jackson | 178 | 261 |
| 1832 | Andrew Jackson | 219 | 286 |
| 1836 | Martin Van Buren | 170 | 294 |
| 1840 | William Henry Harrison | 234 | 294 |
| 1844 | James K. Polk | 170 | 275 |
| 1848 | Zachary Taylor | 163 | 290 |
| 1852 | Franklin Pierce | 254 | 296 |
| 1856 | James Buchanan | 174 | 296 |
| 1860 | Abraham Lincoln | 180 | 303 |
| 1864 | Abraham Lincoln | 212 | 233 |
| 1868 | Ulysses S. Grant | 217 | 294 |
| 1872 | Ulysses S. Grant | 286 | 352 |
| 1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes | 185 | 369 |
| 1880 | James A. Garfield | 214 | 369 |
| 1884 | Grover Cleveland | 219 | 401 |
| 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | 233 | 401 |
| 1892 | Grover Cleveland | 277 | 444 |
| 1896 | William McKinley | 271 | 447 |
| 1900 | William McKinley | 292 | 447 |
| 1904 | Theodore Roosevelt | 336 | 476 |
| 1908 | William Howard Taft | 321 | 483 |
| 1912 | Woodrow Wilson | 438 | 531 |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | 277 | 531 |
| 1920 | Warren G. Harding | 404 | 531 |
| 1924 | Calvin Coolidge | 382 | 531 |
| 1928 | Herbert Hoover | 444 | 531 |
| 1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 472 | 531 |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 523 | 531 |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 449 | 531 |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 432 | 531 |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman | 303 | 531 |
| 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 442 | 531 |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 457 | 531 |
| 1960 | John F. Kennedy | 303 | 537 |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 486 | 538 |
| 1968 | Richard Nixon | 301 | 538 |
| 1972 | Richard Nixon | 520 | 538 |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | 297 | 538 |
| 1980 | Ronald Reagan | 489 | 538 |
| 1984 | Ronald Reagan | 525 | 538 |
| 1988 | George H. W. Bush | 426 | 538 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | 370 | 538 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | 379 | 538 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | 271 | 538 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | 286 | 538 |
Update:
In 1824 John Quincy Adams became president even though Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more electoral votes.
In 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency even though his opponent Samuel J. Tilden received a majority of the popular vote.
In 1888 Benjamin Harrison ended Grover Cleveland's bid for re-election even though Cleveland won a plurality of the popular vote. Cleveland of course won his third bid for the presidency in the following election, making him the second of three presidents to win a plurality of the national popular vote three times (after Andrew Jackson, before Franklin Roosevelt).
In 2000 - well, let's just not go there.
October 20, 2008
October 10, 2008
Be Careful With The "L" Word
We're all getting excited, and who can blame us? Barack Obama has been trading at almost exactly 50% on Intrade since he locked up the nomination, but has shot up to nearly 80% in the last week and a half. Analysts are saying McCain has no shot. McCain's own campaign is clearly in emergency mode. He even conceded Michigan's 17 EVs.
But this election is not over. History shows that elections trend tighter as the finish approaches. Obama's lead is generally placed at 5-6%. I don't think it's unreasonable to assert that there's a good chance Johnny Mac could scrape back a few points, and bring him down to 3-4%.
And here's the thing - my model shows Obama's lead is less than 2% in quite a few states. In fact, he would only hold on to his core of 264 EVs, plus Colorado and Virginia, where I show him up by 3.0% and 3.3% respectively. Now this gets him to 286 EVs (interestingly, the number GWB carried in '04) which is plenty to win, but not enough to start your party early.
So I'm not trying to scare you, but there are still a few ways this could go wrong. 538 shows that if Obama loses Ohio, he's only got a 2/3 chance at winning the election, and I wouldn't consider Ohio "in the bag" by any means.
Liberally speaking, VA, CO, NV, FL, OH, NC, MO, and IN are still in play. I pity the fool who's got to win every single one of those states; nonetheless, the fat lady's still not ready to go on.
But this election is not over. History shows that elections trend tighter as the finish approaches. Obama's lead is generally placed at 5-6%. I don't think it's unreasonable to assert that there's a good chance Johnny Mac could scrape back a few points, and bring him down to 3-4%.
And here's the thing - my model shows Obama's lead is less than 2% in quite a few states. In fact, he would only hold on to his core of 264 EVs, plus Colorado and Virginia, where I show him up by 3.0% and 3.3% respectively. Now this gets him to 286 EVs (interestingly, the number GWB carried in '04) which is plenty to win, but not enough to start your party early.
So I'm not trying to scare you, but there are still a few ways this could go wrong. 538 shows that if Obama loses Ohio, he's only got a 2/3 chance at winning the election, and I wouldn't consider Ohio "in the bag" by any means.
Liberally speaking, VA, CO, NV, FL, OH, NC, MO, and IN are still in play. I pity the fool who's got to win every single one of those states; nonetheless, the fat lady's still not ready to go on.
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