Super-simple preliminary analysis and back-patting

OK, first a back pat. This is the second consecutive presidential election where I went to bed perfect. Now, last time I went to sleep 48-for-48 and woke up 48-for-51 (I called all three remaining states - IA, NM, and OH, and thus the presidency - for Kerry).

Last night I was 47-for-47, with MT, MO, IN, and NC hanging in the balance. It looks this time as though I went 50-for-51, getting MT, MO, and NC but missing on IN. As I said for months, Indiana was the toughest of swing states, although Missouri finished closer than any other state. So perfection came and teased me. It was that Dr. Pepper vending machine in the desert in that episode of Family Guy; I am left only with the bitter taste of RC Cola.

But seriously, let's go back to how awesome I am. Ohio was supposed to be the motherlode, the decider. CNN pandered to Ohio nonstop, even filling their debate focus groups with Ohio voters. Pollster.com called it a tossup, some even predicted it would go for McCain. Me? I put it in the Safe Obama column.

I don't know what the experience was like for you, but where I was, the call of Ohio for Obama came really out-of-nowhere and didn't have the right effect. If we had any idea they were about to call it, we would have all been watching closely popped the champagne then. But instead it just came off like any other state, which we dutifully colored blue before moving on. And also, I nailed Florida, even though some people had their doubts.

I didn't do senate races in 2004 but I did in 2006, and I got 'em all. And that wasn't an easy race. So taking an-actually-perfect record into the '08 senate race how'd I do? Well, even the networks don't know, but so far I'm 31-for-31, with GA, AK, OR, and MN left. Technically the race in MN is over, but there will be a recount. In Oregon, my guy Merkley is a whisper behind with mostly Democratic areas left to count. In Georgia, unless something really crazy goes down with the early votes (which is possible - plus, Bart asked me yesterday to predict one state that would go all crazy on us, and I said Georgia) Chambliss will take that seat, putting me at 34-for-34.

And then there's freaking Alaska.

Alaska, you are the worst state ever. Don Young was reelected despite involvement with Jack Abramoff and VECO, which works with pipelines in Alaska and has plead guilty to bribing Alaskan politicians. VECO was also behind the construction on Ted Stevens' house that resulted in him being convicted of seven felony counts. (His defense was simple: "They didn't convict me."). Yet Uncle Ted got reelected, too? And now Sarah Palin might be a couple months away from promotion to the United States Senate? God I hate you, Alaska.

Interestingly, the polling was way off in Alaska. No state outperformed my model for McCain as much as Alaska did (12-13 pts) and similar results were seen in the House and Senate races. In fact, of the 25 presidential polls in Alaska, the result seen last night outperformed 24 of them, with one Rasmussen poll from Sep 9 being the exception. I hate to sound partisan here, but with this much disparity and this much corruption, is it possible the votes counted weren't the same as the votes cast?

High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute

Story

So, my understanding is that what is at issue here is a big issue. In states throughout the country, most notably Ohio and Florida, Republicans are doing their best to ensure that new voter registrations must match either current state DMV records or current federal Social Security records.

Not a bad idea in theory, but if Bartholomew registers as Bart, my understanding is his application is eligible for rejection. And have you seen your driver's license number? I know it's tough to imagine someone who's job entails keying in that information off of applications to possibly make a mistake, but that would also invalidate your application.

In fairness to the GOP, I'd be pretty pissed if Mickey Mouse got to vote.

State Offices in Swing States

Work in progress. Using Wikipedia, the VA and WV Supreme Courts were not worth tracking down. NC's justices are elected by popular vote in "non-partisan" ways.

Also, for Supreme Courts, party affiliation reflects the party of the official who appointed the justice (typically Governor), not necessary the justice's own views.

State	Gov	Lt Gov	Sec/State	Att Gen	SC (D)	SC (R)
CO	Dem	Dem	Rep	Rep	5	2
VA	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
FL	Rep	Rep	Rep	Rep	5	2
MO	Rep	Rep	Dem	Dem	4	3
NV	Rep	Rep	Dem	Dem	1	6
OH	Dem	Dem	Dem	Dem	1	6
NC	Dem	Dem	Dem	Dem
IN	Rep	Rep	Rep	Rep	3	2
WV	Dem	None	Rep	Dem

And So It Begins ...

... here we go folks. It's going to be a long election.