How reliable are Phil's predictions?
After a too-long internet search, the best historical weather data I was able to find (I'm happy to do something else if you can find better data) was monthly average temperatures for Portland, OR from 1941 on. Since Phil predicts "early spring" or "six more weeks of winter," I gave February a weight of 4 and March a weight of 2 (number of weeks of those six weeks) and took the average. Not the best method of course, but the best I have available. There were no predictions for 1941 and 1942 and no weather data for 2007 and 2008, so I had 63 data points.
Phil predicts more winter:
Number of times - 53
Mean temperature - 44.38
Variance - 4.94
Phil predicts early spring:
Number of times - 10
Mean temperature - 44.96
Variance - 4.90
Two-sample t-test:
T-statistic: -0.760 with 61 degrees of freedom
One-sided p-value: 0.225
***************************************************
Translation: We say these results are so extreme they would "only" happen one in four times by chance. Which isn't sufficient evidence to claim that there's any relationship between Groundhog's Day predictions and actual outcomes.
Sorry to eat away at your childhood :)
Showing posts with label Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weather. Show all posts
February 02, 2009
January 28, 2009
January 15, 2009
It's cold
So, we're all freakin' out here in the StL because it's really cold today. In terms of wind chill, the high today is supposed to be -16. But check out this map - barely above -35 in anywhere in Iowa and below -45 in most of Minnesota.
And yet Saskatchewan (spelled it right the first try!) is chillin' at -10, and Alberta won't even go below zero and parts of British Columbia won't go below freezing! This is crap.
And yet Saskatchewan (spelled it right the first try!) is chillin' at -10, and Alberta won't even go below zero and parts of British Columbia won't go below freezing! This is crap.
October 31, 2008
Election day weather
In hopes of finding even more reasons to be excited for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning I decided to check the national weather forecast for Tuesday. Here is the Weather Underground map for mid-day Tuesday:
And here is the hilariously useless and patriotic map from AccuWeather:
In the end it seems as if weather won't be too much of a factor in terms of its impact on voter turnout. On the east coast there is not too much in the way of precipitation, but perhaps the Georgia senate race and the southernmost part of North Carolina will see unexpected voter patterns. Assuming Chris' predictions come true (especially Ohio) the weather on the west coast may be irrelevant, with its impact overwhelmed by the impact of the returns from the east coast.
So as it turns out this post says nothing. At least we now know that Earth has one more layer than previously known: a gigantic American flag that stretches north to south from Canada to Mexico and east to west from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Finally we know the true boundaries of manifest destiny. Thank you, AccuWeather.
And here is the hilariously useless and patriotic map from AccuWeather:
In the end it seems as if weather won't be too much of a factor in terms of its impact on voter turnout. On the east coast there is not too much in the way of precipitation, but perhaps the Georgia senate race and the southernmost part of North Carolina will see unexpected voter patterns. Assuming Chris' predictions come true (especially Ohio) the weather on the west coast may be irrelevant, with its impact overwhelmed by the impact of the returns from the east coast.
So as it turns out this post says nothing. At least we now know that Earth has one more layer than previously known: a gigantic American flag that stretches north to south from Canada to Mexico and east to west from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Finally we know the true boundaries of manifest destiny. Thank you, AccuWeather.
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