October 02, 2008

WTF M.O. your the only swing state still in McCain's Camp.

Seriously.

1 comment:

  1. Well, alright, we've got a few issues here. For one, the states included over there are hand-picked by me, so it's not an objective list.

    Also, Missouri may be a toss up right now, but only because Obama is way ahead nationally. Missouri is polling far below the median, so even if Obama wins Missouri, it would be reasonable to call it a red state.

    But here's the real point. As I've mentioned before, the red-blue map is changing such that the effect of social issues or "culture wars" is diminishing and economic factors are becoming more important. Colorado (R+8 in 2000, R+4 in 2004) and Virginia (R+8, R+6) are prime examples of states that are quickly moving toward higher-tech, higher-education, better paying jobs and where younger demographics are doing better than ever. North Carolina (R+13,R+12) is this way to some extent, but also has a very large financial services sector, which is why it has really moved in the last few days.

    But then there are states like Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that aren't part of the modern economy, that aren't sending kids to get great educations, and that are still stuck in blue-collar (read: unemployed) professions. I know Missouri, for one, is aging much faster than the median state, and so these states are getting redder. If the election in 2012 is reasonably close, for example, Ohio will not be in play. Of course, I hope by then the electoral college will have been dismantled, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

    And finally, this response wouldn't be appropriate without a counterattack, so I'll just ask this: do you really want me to see what New Jersey's voting history would look like if I took out metro New York? Didn't think so.

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