MN-Sen: What's going on?

So, Intrade contracts on Franken winning the election in Minnesota have held tight between 30 and 35 for about a week and a half now, which is rather remarkably consistent. In the last two hours, however, the price has shot up to very close to 50.

HuffPo has allegations about Coleman corruption all over their front page, but that wouldn't have any bearing on the election. So if anyone's got any idea about anything else that might be making this happen let me know. If it's just reaction to the allegations, well, just one more bit of evidence that political betting markets aren't efficient.

Election 2008 won't go away

Tomorrow is the long-awaited runoff between spawn of Satan Saxby Chambliss (here's the latest reason to dislike him) and Jim Martin. I'll save the introduction; the Democrats' hope for 60 senators will finally die tomorrow.

And in Minnesota, the same trend continues, wherein every bit of information we get only goes to further show how little information we have. Norm Coleman's lead has expanded ever so slightly, still generally in the 200s. However, he's also been challenging more ballots than Franken, quite possibly (and smartly, though Franken caught on quickly) to fabricate a lead for the news. Coleman's shrewd strategy is to win the first count and the second, and then even if Franken wins the court battle, Coleman can say that the Democratic Secretary of State and State Supreme Court took democracy from the hands of Minnesotans. Intrade contracts have dropped to 25 for Franken, but I'd say this is a pretty 50-50 battle, and there's no way to go any further than 60-40 in either direction.

I said before that I thought Minnesota's would be the closest Senate race, but even I wouldn't have predicted it would be this close.

Franken's chances

I really enjoyed this post on FiveThirtyEight. I know Chris checks every post on that site, but how about everyone else? Is it pointless or helpful to highlight particularly good posts from there?