This Thanksgiving I was down in Jackson, MO, enjoying my grandparents' company and a lovely meal. After Friday breakfast my grandmother handed me a column from the Southeastern Missourian to read, and once the whole table's interest had been piqued, I read it aloud.
It's by David Limbaugh, brother of Rush. Their whole family is from Cape Girardeau, MO, where I was born. You'll all be glad to know that my grandmother informs me that Rush Limbaugh's grandfather, a prominent member of the southeast Missouri community, was both a scholar and a gentleman and would be rolling in his grave if he had half an idea what kind of hate his spawn is spewing.
Anyway, I guess I just wanted to point this article out because it is particularly appalling (and thus worth a read for those with tolerant stomachs), and it also led me to learn that the Limbaugh family is not entirely scum.
December 01, 2008
The new security team
A comparison of the new:
And the old:
Clinton clearly did not get the message that the gravity of state security issues must be met with a firm gravitas that is, preferably, so strong that one can only look at one's own feet. Maybe she missed the memo about shortsightedness; maybe this is the first in a long line of changes to come. Let's hope for the latter.
And the old:
Clinton clearly did not get the message that the gravity of state security issues must be met with a firm gravitas that is, preferably, so strong that one can only look at one's own feet. Maybe she missed the memo about shortsightedness; maybe this is the first in a long line of changes to come. Let's hope for the latter.
Netflix gets more awesome
OK, so I know that the Xbox 360 is not likely to be common hardware among our crowd, but I figured I'd share this nonetheless. When I got on mine the other day (I'm not a big video game player, but I got it on the cheap) I noticed that Xbox Live was doing a cross-promotion thing with Netflix.
So basically the way it works is the movies available for "Instant Watch" I can now watch on the Xbox. I'm excited about this because while instant watch is available for your computer, connecting mine to the TV is kind of a pain, and so I don't really make much of use of it.
The downside: not that many titles are available yet and I did have to buy an Xbox Gold membership ($50 a year allows you to play online - a ripoff, sure, but hey, now I can play Netflix movies and I can play sports games with my friends). And one other thing, which is kind of stupid but mostly hilarious: Mark informs me that Sony Pictures titles are not available for viewing through the Xbox.
So basically the way it works is the movies available for "Instant Watch" I can now watch on the Xbox. I'm excited about this because while instant watch is available for your computer, connecting mine to the TV is kind of a pain, and so I don't really make much of use of it.
The downside: not that many titles are available yet and I did have to buy an Xbox Gold membership ($50 a year allows you to play online - a ripoff, sure, but hey, now I can play Netflix movies and I can play sports games with my friends). And one other thing, which is kind of stupid but mostly hilarious: Mark informs me that Sony Pictures titles are not available for viewing through the Xbox.
Election 2008 won't go away
Tomorrow is the long-awaited runoff between spawn of Satan Saxby Chambliss (here's the latest reason to dislike him) and Jim Martin. I'll save the introduction; the Democrats' hope for 60 senators will finally die tomorrow.
And in Minnesota, the same trend continues, wherein every bit of information we get only goes to further show how little information we have. Norm Coleman's lead has expanded ever so slightly, still generally in the 200s. However, he's also been challenging more ballots than Franken, quite possibly (and smartly, though Franken caught on quickly) to fabricate a lead for the news. Coleman's shrewd strategy is to win the first count and the second, and then even if Franken wins the court battle, Coleman can say that the Democratic Secretary of State and State Supreme Court took democracy from the hands of Minnesotans. Intrade contracts have dropped to 25 for Franken, but I'd say this is a pretty 50-50 battle, and there's no way to go any further than 60-40 in either direction.
I said before that I thought Minnesota's would be the closest Senate race, but even I wouldn't have predicted it would be this close.
And in Minnesota, the same trend continues, wherein every bit of information we get only goes to further show how little information we have. Norm Coleman's lead has expanded ever so slightly, still generally in the 200s. However, he's also been challenging more ballots than Franken, quite possibly (and smartly, though Franken caught on quickly) to fabricate a lead for the news. Coleman's shrewd strategy is to win the first count and the second, and then even if Franken wins the court battle, Coleman can say that the Democratic Secretary of State and State Supreme Court took democracy from the hands of Minnesotans. Intrade contracts have dropped to 25 for Franken, but I'd say this is a pretty 50-50 battle, and there's no way to go any further than 60-40 in either direction.
I said before that I thought Minnesota's would be the closest Senate race, but even I wouldn't have predicted it would be this close.
A different side of Google
This article (which I have only started, but find interesting) discusses the potentially embarrassing/illegal/scary/disappointing role of Google in defining modern free speech. I hope to see angry, swear-riddled rants (preferably in video form, as it is only fitting) discussing this to be posted soon.
November 30, 2008
KENKEN
Check out this new puzzle that the New York Times has begun to publish regularly. Below are the rules and a sample 4x4 KENKEN puzzle. (As a disclaimer: The name of the game seems to always be written in all capital letters. I hate this and copied it only for the sake of accuracy.)
Mission Accomplished!
Bush finally caved and agreed to a timetable for withdrawal. I hope that this is the one independent act of the long-time puppet, an acknowledgment of the true(r) mandate received by Obama.
November 26, 2008
Wal-Mart 2008
RealClearMarkets just posted a really interesting writeup of an updated Wal-Mart effect. In the same way that I am upset by my dependence on Google in the electronic world I am concerned by the increasing dominance of Wal-Mart in the retail sector. Possible discussion topics for people to use as rant starting points: dangers and advantages of a dominant chain in such an important market (remember how large a portion of income is spent on groceries, clothing, and relatively cheap entertainment goods); visceral reactions to Wal-Mart based on domestic and/or international labor issues; a comparison of Wal-Mart's and Google's strategies and popularity.
Another grammar check: If I am going to the house owned by Marcia and Dave am I going to "Marcia and Dave's house" or to "Marcia's and Dave's house"? I argue that the first is grammatically correct but that the second makes a whole hell of a lot more sense based on the fact that it demonstrates the possessive for each individual. Perhaps the entire sentence structure is flawed and should simply be rephrased to avoid confusion.
Another grammar check: If I am going to the house owned by Marcia and Dave am I going to "Marcia and Dave's house" or to "Marcia's and Dave's house"? I argue that the first is grammatically correct but that the second makes a whole hell of a lot more sense based on the fact that it demonstrates the possessive for each individual. Perhaps the entire sentence structure is flawed and should simply be rephrased to avoid confusion.
TV on the Internet
I just read about Sling.com, a new website that streams television shows for free. I haven't really checked it out yet, but the review I read said it is about the same as Hulu.
The sites I know of for watching TV online:
Hulu
Sidereel
Sling
Anyone know of any others?
The sites I know of for watching TV online:
Hulu
Sidereel
Sling
Anyone know of any others?
10 Republicans Who Should Go
I really enjoyed this list of "10 Republicans who should go away."
My personal favorite on the list was Dick Cheney, whose writeup included, "Cheney has always remained largely behind the scenes due to a distinct lack of personality and aura of extreme evil, but wields his influence expertly with his nuanced understanding of the dark arts of politics. Cheney is the epitome of a political hack, a gutless grey blob of a man with a record of detached violence and personal greed."
My personal favorite on the list was Dick Cheney, whose writeup included, "Cheney has always remained largely behind the scenes due to a distinct lack of personality and aura of extreme evil, but wields his influence expertly with his nuanced understanding of the dark arts of politics. Cheney is the epitome of a political hack, a gutless grey blob of a man with a record of detached violence and personal greed."
Billion Dollar Losers
Here's another slideshow, this of the top twenty largest losers in the financial meltdown. While it's hard to feel sorry for anyone who can lose a billion dollars, some of these guys lost substantially more than half their net worth and, well, it's kinda tough not to feel sorry for anyone that happens to.
Presidential Turkey Pardons
This is pretty stupid, but it's worth it just for the pictures of Reagan and Bush 43.
November 25, 2008
President-Elect Obama
By the way, I just want to say I'm thrilled with how Obama is doing so far. I know we don't have that much to go on yet but everything he says has been extremely reasonable, and solution-oriented above politics-oriented. Even his hint that he may wait for the Bush tax cuts to expire instead of repealing them immediately, while a bit to the right of my own economic philsophy - is an encouraging signal that he won't make the even-worse mistake of going too far to the left on the economy. That's all I've got.
Quick Back-Pat Update
Wiki White House
I enjoyed this article about the potential for Obama's version of whitehouse.gov. While most of the listed features are not really feasible (at least not in one large jump), overall I agree that it is time for government to have a mechanism for public response that is more personal than protests and the occasional visit to the voting booth. Perhaps a true democracy will emerge in digital form.
November 24, 2008
Check out this balance, Liberals!
It is a wonderful day for those of us who support the liberal media conspiracy and its subversive, communist goals. One of the most outspoken, principled, and "hard-hitting liberal[s]" of our time will now have his own show. We should all send wonderful letters to Fox News describing our jubilation.
Hilarious for NYU Politics majors
Check out this upcoming History Channel show. The premise is that Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a modern-day Nostradamus. Seriously.
Update: Carly and I just hung out with Steve, so I accidentally wrote Machiavelli instead of Nostradamus. I'm an idiot. My apologies.
Update: Carly and I just hung out with Steve, so I accidentally wrote Machiavelli instead of Nostradamus. I'm an idiot. My apologies.
Utility often seduces me
This short Times piece could have been written by me, and I feel basically the way the writer does: Slightly creeped out by Google's familiarly with my personal information, but unable to resist its handy tools. Any thoughts on this or internet privacy issues in general?
UPDATE: I could/should delete this, considering Carly just posted the same article, but I think it's pretty funny to compare the fact that we posted the same thing and said the same stuff about it within 3 minutes of each other.
UPDATE: I could/should delete this, considering Carly just posted the same article, but I think it's pretty funny to compare the fact that we posted the same thing and said the same stuff about it within 3 minutes of each other.
I enjoyed reading this article. I followed a similar progression to using many of Google's features. And as for a large corporation kind of controlling my life, I believe Carr said it rather well: "If Google owns me, it’s probably because I am in favor of what works"
Cabinet profiles (12/15)
I would like to have one central place with articles profiling potential Cabinet members (and those filling Cabinet-level posts). This will make it easier for me to learn about them. Does anyone agree or disagree? Perhaps I will just create a table in this post that can be edited by anyone who would like to add a link (see below).
General links related to the composition of Obama's Cabinet and/or administration:
General links related to the composition of Obama's Cabinet and/or administration:
- "Well Done" - The New Republic
- "Obama Unveils Team to Tackle 'Historic' Crisis in Economy" - The New York Times
- "Obama Defends Cabinet: The Change Will Come From Me" - Huffington Post
- "The Five Best Jobs Obama Has Yet to Fill" - Politico
- "Obama, Aides Considering Appointing Energy 'Czar'" - The Wall Street Journal
| Cabinet-Level Position | Candidate | Articles |
|---|---|---|
| Vice President | Sen. Joseph Biden | |
| White House Chief-of-Staff | Rep. Rahm Emanuel | |
| Environmental Protection Agency | ||
| Office of Management and Budget | Peter Orszag | |
| National Drug Control Policy | ||
| Trade Representative |
| Other position | Candidate | Articles |
|---|---|---|
| National Security Advisor | Marine General James L. Jones | "Who Is Jim Jones?" - The New Republic |
| Head of White House Economic Council | Lawrence H. Summers | |
| Head of Council of Economic Advisers | Christina D. Romer | |
| Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council | Melody Barnes | |
| White House Social Secretary | Desirée Rogers |
|
advice needed
the headlines are freaking me out - should I close my Citibank checking account and switch over to Chase?
A cheery quote to start the week
John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash: 1929, Intro-XIV:
[...] The phrases are the same: 'The economic situation is fundamentally sound' or simply 'The fundamentals are good.' All who hear these words should know that something is wrong.
November 23, 2008
As promised
For Carly and Bart (and all others, obviously): New Yorker's McCain postmortem. It's balanced and pretty interesting.
Also, I liked this cartoon, from the same issue:
Also, I liked this cartoon, from the same issue:
November 21, 2008
Two interesting articles
This article is about Tom Daschle and the long-term problems that could result if Obama's health plan passes. I don't agree with a lot of it and unfortunately it is largely written from the doomsday perspective of a post-election Republican, but one point that stood out to me was that if the government picks up a program that doesn't work, it'll be like social security - we won't be able to get the people to let it go even if better solutions arise.
This article is about what closing Guantanamo would mean for US foreign/counterterrorism policy, as well as the very relevant question of what exactly we'll be doing with the detainees there.
I'd like to have a conversation going at some point about this sort of stuff, as well as torture. I'm not on the hardcore side, but in my experience, my views on torture lie to the right of most of my friends.
This article is about what closing Guantanamo would mean for US foreign/counterterrorism policy, as well as the very relevant question of what exactly we'll be doing with the detainees there.
I'd like to have a conversation going at some point about this sort of stuff, as well as torture. I'm not on the hardcore side, but in my experience, my views on torture lie to the right of most of my friends.
Healthcare and Wellness
Basically I'm asking if any of you knows any articles or research off the top of your head about incentives to change health behavior and how successful they've been. I'm asking this for this afternoon.
Now, in general, anything about making health care more efficient is appreciated because it's helpful to my job. This afternoon, however, I am supposed to give some sort of report on this stuff.
Basically, Wellness (formerly known as preventative health care) is big in the health industry. It pretty much means any lifestyle changes that can help reduce future costs. This includes everything from making sure you go to the doctor to employers beautifying their stairwells to encourage exercise.
Personally, I think it's a bit early for these ideas, but a couple of things I'm thinking about, because I definitely think they're part of the future of health plans, is:
1) Getting people to eat healthier, but specifically, in a way that would make Michael Pollan proud. I guess ideally it would be something like being able to get an employer-funded 20% discount at Trader Joe's or something like that. I know it's a bit early for the industry, but it's an idea.
2) Something even more in gestation would be an idea like Wii Fit. Now, you kind of have to get beyond the present and think about where exercise video games can be in 10 years. If employers are still footing the bill for health care down the road, I don't think it would be surprising at all to see them show up in more offices. We've got 66 people in our office, so paying $250 for a Wii plus $90 for Wii Fit isn't too expensive if it provides any returns at all ...
Now, in general, anything about making health care more efficient is appreciated because it's helpful to my job. This afternoon, however, I am supposed to give some sort of report on this stuff.
Basically, Wellness (formerly known as preventative health care) is big in the health industry. It pretty much means any lifestyle changes that can help reduce future costs. This includes everything from making sure you go to the doctor to employers beautifying their stairwells to encourage exercise.
Personally, I think it's a bit early for these ideas, but a couple of things I'm thinking about, because I definitely think they're part of the future of health plans, is:
1) Getting people to eat healthier, but specifically, in a way that would make Michael Pollan proud. I guess ideally it would be something like being able to get an employer-funded 20% discount at Trader Joe's or something like that. I know it's a bit early for the industry, but it's an idea.
2) Something even more in gestation would be an idea like Wii Fit. Now, you kind of have to get beyond the present and think about where exercise video games can be in 10 years. If employers are still footing the bill for health care down the road, I don't think it would be surprising at all to see them show up in more offices. We've got 66 people in our office, so paying $250 for a Wii plus $90 for Wii Fit isn't too expensive if it provides any returns at all ...
good article about good TV
Lots of talk about the awesomeness of Arrested, 30 Rock, and Lost here.
Did you guys see last night's 30 Rock? It's amazing how Liz Lemon takes the words right out of my mouth...Carly, I think you especially have heard me give that "why can't I just start a relationship about twelve years in?" diatribe more than once.
Did you guys see last night's 30 Rock? It's amazing how Liz Lemon takes the words right out of my mouth...Carly, I think you especially have heard me give that "why can't I just start a relationship about twelve years in?" diatribe more than once.
Now that's some good JCVD!
Yes! JCVD is doing his best to promote this movie. It turns out that his best includes, among other tactics, hitting on a reporter mid-interview. I love this man. Frankly I cannot wait until Double Team II: Quadruple Team gets the green light. (For those of you out of the mid-1990s-action-film loop, Double Team was unleashed in 1997 and starred JCVD, Dennis Rodman, and Mickey Rourke (Seriously.). Hilarious honors the film has received include "[...] three Golden Raspberry Awards: Worst Supporting Actor (Rodman), Worst New Star (also Rodman) and Worst Screen Couple (Rodman and Van Damme).")
Arrested Development movie
The movie is a little closer to reality, with Ron Howard and Mitchell Hurwitz signing deals.
Competitiveness and Blueness
OK, so I still haven't read the report that Warren posted about state competitiveness. Nonetheless, I opened it, saw the data, and instantly new what my question was.
I've been saying that this whole idea about big shifts in the red-blue map is generally overblown, but when it comes to economic success, there may be some real change (like Colorado and Virginia going blue, and Missouri going red).
So I did a very simple regression on the Overall Index value by Dem margin of victory per state in '08 minus that in '04. (So losing a state by 20 in '04 and by 16 in '08 comes out to be the same as losing a state by 1 in '04 and winning it by 3 in '08, etc.) I first did all the states; then I did it again omitting AK, AR, DE, HI, IL, MA, and TX to eliminate home-state effects (I believe Hillary's one-time candidacy did significantly hurt Obama in Arkansas).
The results are astounding! r^2 of 60%! P-value of 0.000038. There is no doubt that more competitive states saw bigger blue shifts in 2008. A score of 0 in the report corresponds to a red shift of 6.74%. Then, for each add'l point in the index, the state shifts blue by a whopping 3.36%. So all else equal, if Kerry lost a state by 10 points in 2004 but it has a competitiveness index of 5.00 - right at the median, then Barack Obama would have been ever-so-slightly favored to win the state in 2008.
I'll do more with this in the coming weeks.
Oh, and yet another complaint about the electoral college - when the EVs are redistributed following the 2010 census, it's likely that only blue states will lose EVs and only red states will gain them. This happened in 2000 as well - John Kerry played on a tougher map than Al Gore by about 5 EVs.
I've been saying that this whole idea about big shifts in the red-blue map is generally overblown, but when it comes to economic success, there may be some real change (like Colorado and Virginia going blue, and Missouri going red).
So I did a very simple regression on the Overall Index value by Dem margin of victory per state in '08 minus that in '04. (So losing a state by 20 in '04 and by 16 in '08 comes out to be the same as losing a state by 1 in '04 and winning it by 3 in '08, etc.) I first did all the states; then I did it again omitting AK, AR, DE, HI, IL, MA, and TX to eliminate home-state effects (I believe Hillary's one-time candidacy did significantly hurt Obama in Arkansas).
The results are astounding! r^2 of 60%! P-value of 0.000038. There is no doubt that more competitive states saw bigger blue shifts in 2008. A score of 0 in the report corresponds to a red shift of 6.74%. Then, for each add'l point in the index, the state shifts blue by a whopping 3.36%. So all else equal, if Kerry lost a state by 10 points in 2004 but it has a competitiveness index of 5.00 - right at the median, then Barack Obama would have been ever-so-slightly favored to win the state in 2008.
I'll do more with this in the coming weeks.
Oh, and yet another complaint about the electoral college - when the EVs are redistributed following the 2010 census, it's likely that only blue states will lose EVs and only red states will gain them. This happened in 2000 as well - John Kerry played on a tougher map than Al Gore by about 5 EVs.
November 20, 2008
The blog has been assigned a task: find a job!
A warning before I begin: this post will be long-winded, biased, irrelevant to most of your lives, and, frankly, not particularly interesting.
Background:
I am currently a Mathematics Fellow in the NYC Teaching Fellows program. Fellows are required to, among other tasks, find their own full-time teaching position in their subject area. The job search is supposed to be completed over the summer, but those who do not find a full time position before the beginning of the school year are not tossed out of the program, but rather assigned to “help-out” (yes, that phrasing is used in actual Fellows documents) at a school until they are able to find a full-time job. At this point the clock begins ticking, and if a Fellow has not gotten a job by the fifth of December then he/she is no longer a certified teacher and is booted from the program.
I was one of the many who did not find a job over the summer. After moving math books around for three weeks at the school to which I was assigned, I was given a full-time health schedule to teach. Needless to say teaching health is not nearly as appealing to me as teaching math, and that is without even considering the personal costs imposed on me by the knowledge that every day I entered the classroom I was hypocritically preaching healthy decisions to small children.
Today I confirmed what I had long suspected—that my school’s budget has no room to hire me (and in fact must cut approximately $300,000 in already committed funds). My goals in writing this post: 1. Organize my own thoughts and opinions (feelings, I suppose, but I have a strong aversion to the connotations of that word); 2. Outline the limitations I face in moving forward; and 3. Seek suggestions concerning how to proceed.
My thoughts:
Here’s where I now stand: I am very happy that I will not be teaching health for a year, and I am fairly confident that I will not be disappointed when I leave my classroom for the last time. As it turns out I am capable of managing a boatload of rowdy children, but I don’t like it. My time at FIT spent tutoring relatively calm and level (though not normal) people made me forget that I would soon be facing middle-school students. I enjoy the feeling of passing information on to a child, knowing that the home environment will never be able to educate the child in the same way that I could, but that is such a tiny portion of the job that I am quite happy to be handed what I consider to be a form of a Get Out of Jail Free card.
To that end, I am no longer actively looking for a math position and assume that as of December fifth I will be free of all obligations to the Fellows, the Department of Education (DOE), and Brooklyn College (where I will no longer be enrolled as of 5:00pm on that date). For those of you about to argue that I am tossing myself into unemployment during one of the great modern downturns I ask, “What math teacher with a full-time position and any concept of the state of the economy would willingly vacate a position?” As proof I submit: 1. HR people at the Fellows and the DOE nearly laughed when I asked about openings; 2. My principal has heard of only two openings of any kind in the last few weeks; and, 3. The DOE has blocked access to the Open Market Hiring System, supposedly the last resort of a certified, unemployed teacher.
Where to go from here:
I do not know how to proceed from unemployed to happily employed. Happily employed in the sense that not only am I being paid, but I also do not want to die when I wake up and realize I have to go to work (this is how I feel about being a health teacher, which is not a healthy attitude. Har de har har.).
I do not even know in what fields to look for jobs, not because of relative unemployment rates in different industries, but rather because I am unsure of the direction in which I hope to progress in my career. I know that I like mathematics and economics, but I do not know how to turn that into some form of career path.
Any suggestions, input, and/or guidance would be appreciated, but please refrain from the standard chorus of, “Sorry you are losing your job”; remember that I am not upset about that (and that I have coworkers and classmates who will not stop offering false condolences along the lines of “That’s fucked up, man. Really fucked up.” Not helpful.). The people reading this blog know me better than just about any group in the world, so I am relying on all of you to be my career counselors, though I will likely stop by the NYU Office of Career Services sometime very soon.
Background:
I am currently a Mathematics Fellow in the NYC Teaching Fellows program. Fellows are required to, among other tasks, find their own full-time teaching position in their subject area. The job search is supposed to be completed over the summer, but those who do not find a full time position before the beginning of the school year are not tossed out of the program, but rather assigned to “help-out” (yes, that phrasing is used in actual Fellows documents) at a school until they are able to find a full-time job. At this point the clock begins ticking, and if a Fellow has not gotten a job by the fifth of December then he/she is no longer a certified teacher and is booted from the program.
I was one of the many who did not find a job over the summer. After moving math books around for three weeks at the school to which I was assigned, I was given a full-time health schedule to teach. Needless to say teaching health is not nearly as appealing to me as teaching math, and that is without even considering the personal costs imposed on me by the knowledge that every day I entered the classroom I was hypocritically preaching healthy decisions to small children.
Today I confirmed what I had long suspected—that my school’s budget has no room to hire me (and in fact must cut approximately $300,000 in already committed funds). My goals in writing this post: 1. Organize my own thoughts and opinions (feelings, I suppose, but I have a strong aversion to the connotations of that word); 2. Outline the limitations I face in moving forward; and 3. Seek suggestions concerning how to proceed.
My thoughts:
Here’s where I now stand: I am very happy that I will not be teaching health for a year, and I am fairly confident that I will not be disappointed when I leave my classroom for the last time. As it turns out I am capable of managing a boatload of rowdy children, but I don’t like it. My time at FIT spent tutoring relatively calm and level (though not normal) people made me forget that I would soon be facing middle-school students. I enjoy the feeling of passing information on to a child, knowing that the home environment will never be able to educate the child in the same way that I could, but that is such a tiny portion of the job that I am quite happy to be handed what I consider to be a form of a Get Out of Jail Free card.
To that end, I am no longer actively looking for a math position and assume that as of December fifth I will be free of all obligations to the Fellows, the Department of Education (DOE), and Brooklyn College (where I will no longer be enrolled as of 5:00pm on that date). For those of you about to argue that I am tossing myself into unemployment during one of the great modern downturns I ask, “What math teacher with a full-time position and any concept of the state of the economy would willingly vacate a position?” As proof I submit: 1. HR people at the Fellows and the DOE nearly laughed when I asked about openings; 2. My principal has heard of only two openings of any kind in the last few weeks; and, 3. The DOE has blocked access to the Open Market Hiring System, supposedly the last resort of a certified, unemployed teacher.
Where to go from here:
I do not know how to proceed from unemployed to happily employed. Happily employed in the sense that not only am I being paid, but I also do not want to die when I wake up and realize I have to go to work (this is how I feel about being a health teacher, which is not a healthy attitude. Har de har har.).
I do not even know in what fields to look for jobs, not because of relative unemployment rates in different industries, but rather because I am unsure of the direction in which I hope to progress in my career. I know that I like mathematics and economics, but I do not know how to turn that into some form of career path.
Any suggestions, input, and/or guidance would be appreciated, but please refrain from the standard chorus of, “Sorry you are losing your job”; remember that I am not upset about that (and that I have coworkers and classmates who will not stop offering false condolences along the lines of “That’s fucked up, man. Really fucked up.” Not helpful.). The people reading this blog know me better than just about any group in the world, so I am relying on all of you to be my career counselors, though I will likely stop by the NYU Office of Career Services sometime very soon.
Watching the Dow
2000 pt drop from 13,000 to 11,000
May 16 to July 14 (59 days)
2000 pt drop from 11,000 to 9,000
September 26 to October 28 (32 days)
2000 pt drop from 9,600 to 7,600
November 4 to November 20 (16 days)
Of course, there's wiggle room on the dates, but the idea is clear.
(PS: Here's another indicator: I was about to create a new label for the current recession, until I realized that it's likely to be synonymous with the current label "economy" for the life of this blog.)
And here's a link.
May 16 to July 14 (59 days)
2000 pt drop from 11,000 to 9,000
September 26 to October 28 (32 days)
2000 pt drop from 9,600 to 7,600
November 4 to November 20 (16 days)
Of course, there's wiggle room on the dates, but the idea is clear.
(PS: Here's another indicator: I was about to create a new label for the current recession, until I realized that it's likely to be synonymous with the current label "economy" for the life of this blog.)
And here's a link.
Being a Minnesota Electoral Judge
I found this to be a really interesting exercise. When does a vote count?
Electoral College
Today's Times editorial claims that,
The Electoral College is more than just an antiquated institution: it actively disenfranchises voters and occasionally (think 2000) makes the candidate with fewer popular votes president. American democracy would be far stronger without it.
I'm inclined to agree.
But what do you guys think? I'm really interested, I don't know nearly enough about it, but I've yet to hear an especially convincing argument for the E.C. ...
The Electoral College is more than just an antiquated institution: it actively disenfranchises voters and occasionally (think 2000) makes the candidate with fewer popular votes president. American democracy would be far stronger without it.
I'm inclined to agree.
But what do you guys think? I'm really interested, I don't know nearly enough about it, but I've yet to hear an especially convincing argument for the E.C. ...
State Competitiveness Report
Thought everyone might find this interesting. I think we would all agree more or less with their methodology, or at least find it interesting. It was put together by a free-market think tank and uses metrics that one would expect from such an organization. Bart and Carly, I'm sure you will not object considering Massachusetts came in first.
The Report
The Report
Very Interesting Article
I received this article in a listserv email from my department - the 2 doctors involved were residents in the department for which I work.
I realize some may find it depressing or hard to read/swallow, but it is worth reading all the way through, even just to understand the US' stance on torture under the Bush administration.
I realize some may find it depressing or hard to read/swallow, but it is worth reading all the way through, even just to understand the US' stance on torture under the Bush administration.
November 19, 2008
Let's make the best of the bailout...
...by letting China do it for us!. The author goes on to point out that any offer from a Chinese firm could put US legislators in a tough spot where they must decide between: 1. Denying China something it really wants while at the same time ignoring a legitimate bid for a company in a capitalist market in favor of either bankrupting the company or financing it with taxpayer money; and 2. Allowing the Chinese to acquire some of the American Brand. Tough spot for them. It should be interesting to see how ideology holds up with the Chinese making a play along these lines.
McCain wins Missouri
(Update: Here's a newer story)
At least one website is saying that McCain's lead in Missouri is now larger than the number of remaining ballots.
The article was posted yesterday and listed McCain ahead by 4355 votes with 3159 remaining.
Currently, the MO SoS page lists McCain ahead by 3602 votes. By subtraction, there are 1458 ballots remaining, though it could be fewer if more ballots have been thrown out.
As much as I would love a recount, I would consider the chances of Obama requesting one to be near zero, even if he wouldn't have to pay for it (not sure if he would or not).
Side notes: Turnout is up 7% from 2.73M in 2004 to 2.93M in 2008. Bush won the Show-Me-State 53.3 to 46.1 in 2004, a margin of 7.20%. McCain has won the state by approximately 49.4 to 49.3, a margin of 0.12%.
At least one website is saying that McCain's lead in Missouri is now larger than the number of remaining ballots.
The article was posted yesterday and listed McCain ahead by 4355 votes with 3159 remaining.
Currently, the MO SoS page lists McCain ahead by 3602 votes. By subtraction, there are 1458 ballots remaining, though it could be fewer if more ballots have been thrown out.
As much as I would love a recount, I would consider the chances of Obama requesting one to be near zero, even if he wouldn't have to pay for it (not sure if he would or not).
Side notes: Turnout is up 7% from 2.73M in 2004 to 2.93M in 2008. Bush won the Show-Me-State 53.3 to 46.1 in 2004, a margin of 7.20%. McCain has won the state by approximately 49.4 to 49.3, a margin of 0.12%.
Fun With Numbers
I know two more of these, but I came across this one today for the first time:
Prove: 1+1=0
Assume: sqrt(-1) = i and that sqrt(a*b) = sqrt(a)*sqrt(b)
Proof:
1 + 1 = 1 + 1
1 + 1 = 1 + sqrt(1)
1+ sqrt(1) = 1 + sqrt[(-1)*(-1)]
1 + sqrt[(-1)*(-1)] = 1 + sqrt(-1)*sqrt(-1)
1 + sqrt(-1)*sqrt(-1) = 1 + (i)*(i)
1 + (i)*(i) = 1 + (i)^2
1 + (i)^2 = 1 + (-1)
1 + (-1) = 1 - 1
1 - 1 = 0
So:
1+1 = 0
Prove: 1+1=0
Assume: sqrt(-1) = i and that sqrt(a*b) = sqrt(a)*sqrt(b)
Proof:
1 + 1 = 1 + 1
1 + 1 = 1 + sqrt(1)
1+ sqrt(1) = 1 + sqrt[(-1)*(-1)]
1 + sqrt[(-1)*(-1)] = 1 + sqrt(-1)*sqrt(-1)
1 + sqrt(-1)*sqrt(-1) = 1 + (i)*(i)
1 + (i)*(i) = 1 + (i)^2
1 + (i)^2 = 1 + (-1)
1 + (-1) = 1 - 1
1 - 1 = 0
So:
1+1 = 0
God, space is awesome - UPDATED
I found this article really interesting, even though it's kind of not. I just really like descriptions of what it's like to be an astronaut, since my childhood dream will never be realized.
UPDATE: Also awesome! The below photo is the first of our planet framed by the surface of the Moon, taken in '66 and just recently digitized. Read about it here.
UPDATE: Also awesome! The below photo is the first of our planet framed by the surface of the Moon, taken in '66 and just recently digitized. Read about it here.
Romney cedes 2012?
I guess you NYT people saw this, but Mitt Romney, who idiot pundits liked to say could have carried Michigan because he graduated high school there in 1965, has an article out today in which he says that the automakers should be allowed to fail.
As a politician who currently holds no office and one assumes is still aspiring towards one, why on earth would you say something like that? What if it happens? Thousands of jobs will be lost, even if the greater long-term interest is actually served. You alienate blue-collar workers, who are becoming more important to the Republican party in the new economy (young white-collar workers did mean that Colorado, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina were actual shifts in the map this year, just as older, less-educated Missouri also shifted to the right). You certainly aren't gaining any votes by making this proclamation. I could go on, but I guess you guys get the point. Right or wrong, I don't see how coming out with this helps you at all. I suppose there's a chance the majority of Americans favor letting them fail (only with some sort of line about how they've been digging their own grave, which I suppose is fair) but they won't be too happy about it if they get what they want and unemployment spikes. It just seems like a no-win statement.
As a politician who currently holds no office and one assumes is still aspiring towards one, why on earth would you say something like that? What if it happens? Thousands of jobs will be lost, even if the greater long-term interest is actually served. You alienate blue-collar workers, who are becoming more important to the Republican party in the new economy (young white-collar workers did mean that Colorado, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina were actual shifts in the map this year, just as older, less-educated Missouri also shifted to the right). You certainly aren't gaining any votes by making this proclamation. I could go on, but I guess you guys get the point. Right or wrong, I don't see how coming out with this helps you at all. I suppose there's a chance the majority of Americans favor letting them fail (only with some sort of line about how they've been digging their own grave, which I suppose is fair) but they won't be too happy about it if they get what they want and unemployment spikes. It just seems like a no-win statement.
Obama's Increasing Influence
Ha! I go over to RCP and who's praising one of Obama's most recent policy proposals? ESPN blowhard Michael Wilbon. Turns out that after a solid decade of annual debate over the validity of the BCS, the current college football postseason system, Obama is turning the college football world upside with what amounts to a single sentence, uttered twice. Wow.
Bush, Kennedy, or Other! (Follow-Up)
In an earlier post I asked the following question:
"In which family did a member kill a significant other in a car accident?"
While I was clearly trying to invoke Ted Kennedy at Chappaquiddick, if you'll give me some wiggle room, the answer is actually Laura Bush. Technically she wasn't a Bush yet and technically it's only a rumor that she and the other guy were dating, but like 23/6, I like to go with the rumor. She ran a stop sign but was not charged.
"In which family did a member kill a significant other in a car accident?"
While I was clearly trying to invoke Ted Kennedy at Chappaquiddick, if you'll give me some wiggle room, the answer is actually Laura Bush. Technically she wasn't a Bush yet and technically it's only a rumor that she and the other guy were dating, but like 23/6, I like to go with the rumor. She ran a stop sign but was not charged.
(Still) I hate Huckabee
With the inept John McCain having won the Republican nomination, then Huckabee charismatically appearing on the Colbert Report, and even with his own show, it becomes easy to sort of like former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
But let's not forget he's nuts. He suggested of the Bible and the Constitution that we use the perfect text to fix the imperfect one. I could go on, but he was on the View and, well, I'll leave it to you.
But let's not forget he's nuts. He suggested of the Bible and the Constitution that we use the perfect text to fix the imperfect one. I could go on, but he was on the View and, well, I'll leave it to you.
Pirates!
This video answers a question Carly had about the reasons for the high piracy rate around Somalia.
Obama uses sentences
I liked this article because it was funny, but also because it reminded me that Obama actually is the President-elect.
Quantum of Solace unacceptable deviation (Updated)
I don't want to ruin anything for anyone, but I just want to say that I saw Quantum of Solace and was quite disappointed.
Let me say first, it's not a terrible movie. The fact that the plot is darn near impossible to follow is its main problem. The action scenes are awesome, and Daniel Craig delivers as the new James Bond.
The problem is that, even though this is quickly becoming cliché, the new James Bond is entirely too similar to his initial-sake, Jason Bourne. Because that's exactly what this movie felt like (even a lot of the Bourne crew worked on Quantum).
The cheap puns, the light wit, the shoot-at-the-camera opening - all gone. Hardly any stealth involved. No gadgetry. Even to say that there was a love scene in the movie is being more generous than I'm willing to go.
Now, I'm a little biased because I've been going through a bunch of the old Bond movies recently, but this movie abandons nearly all the themes that unite the previous installments. It abandons everything Bond, better or worse, and makes it into just another action movie, albeit a decent one. All I'm saying is, when I go to the movies to see a Bond movie, that's what I want. I could have stayed at home and watched Mission: Impossible or a Bourne movie.
Finally, the one element I will sort of defend them on is the title. The title Quantum of Solace is awful, obviously, but it is the name of an old Bond story, not merely something they pulled out of their butts to sound cool in the 21st century.
Update: trivia note: director Marc Foster also directed Monster's Ball, Finding Neverland, Stranger than Fiction, and the Kite Runner.
Let me say first, it's not a terrible movie. The fact that the plot is darn near impossible to follow is its main problem. The action scenes are awesome, and Daniel Craig delivers as the new James Bond.
The problem is that, even though this is quickly becoming cliché, the new James Bond is entirely too similar to his initial-sake, Jason Bourne. Because that's exactly what this movie felt like (even a lot of the Bourne crew worked on Quantum).
The cheap puns, the light wit, the shoot-at-the-camera opening - all gone. Hardly any stealth involved. No gadgetry. Even to say that there was a love scene in the movie is being more generous than I'm willing to go.
Now, I'm a little biased because I've been going through a bunch of the old Bond movies recently, but this movie abandons nearly all the themes that unite the previous installments. It abandons everything Bond, better or worse, and makes it into just another action movie, albeit a decent one. All I'm saying is, when I go to the movies to see a Bond movie, that's what I want. I could have stayed at home and watched Mission: Impossible or a Bourne movie.
Finally, the one element I will sort of defend them on is the title. The title Quantum of Solace is awful, obviously, but it is the name of an old Bond story, not merely something they pulled out of their butts to sound cool in the 21st century.
Update: trivia note: director Marc Foster also directed Monster's Ball, Finding Neverland, Stranger than Fiction, and the Kite Runner.
Cheney, Gonzo indicted in TX
This sounds to me like the sort of thing that will go away quickly; nonetheless, the vice president and former attorney general have nonetheless been indicted in a south Texas county.
The charges against the vice president relate to a conflict of interest stemming from a group of privately owned prisons he is invested in, and allegedly visited for the purpose of assaulting inmates. Gonzoles is essentially charged with using his post at the DoJ to stop investigation into the matter.
The charges against the vice president relate to a conflict of interest stemming from a group of privately owned prisons he is invested in, and allegedly visited for the purpose of assaulting inmates. Gonzoles is essentially charged with using his post at the DoJ to stop investigation into the matter.
Science finally lives up to expectations!
I just read about a team of European doctors who recently completed a successful windpipe transplant surgery. The important part is that the donor windpipe "[...] was stripped of its donor’s cells [...]" and coated in the recipient's stem cells. Since the surgery the patient has had to take no immunosuppressant drugs and her body has had no immune-system reaction to the transplant other than the healing of the surgical wounds.
Is it just me or has anyone else been waiting for this since Dolly was cloned? (I would like to note that at the time of Dolly's birth I still lived in Las Vegas and was ten years old.) When I first heard about Dolly I assumed we would be cloning humans and body parts inside of the decade basing this on a vague assumption along the lines of: the process of cloning a sheep has to overlap at least 99% with the process of cloning a person. Aside from eventually being told of the various ethical reasons for the ban on the cloning of humans I do not today know all that much more about the science of procedures like this. I took the obligatory high-school classes, but did not enjoy them much and didn't really learn too much.
Today I simply do not know enough about the science behind this work to comprehend why progress is so slow, and that leads me to frustration over what I perceive to be the relatively slow pace of development. I suppose that in this way my ignorance usually forces me to underestimate and subsequently ignore the value of achievements like this, so I am posting this as part of an effort to slowly educate myself a bit.
Is it just me or has anyone else been waiting for this since Dolly was cloned? (I would like to note that at the time of Dolly's birth I still lived in Las Vegas and was ten years old.) When I first heard about Dolly I assumed we would be cloning humans and body parts inside of the decade basing this on a vague assumption along the lines of: the process of cloning a sheep has to overlap at least 99% with the process of cloning a person. Aside from eventually being told of the various ethical reasons for the ban on the cloning of humans I do not today know all that much more about the science of procedures like this. I took the obligatory high-school classes, but did not enjoy them much and didn't really learn too much.
Today I simply do not know enough about the science behind this work to comprehend why progress is so slow, and that leads me to frustration over what I perceive to be the relatively slow pace of development. I suppose that in this way my ignorance usually forces me to underestimate and subsequently ignore the value of achievements like this, so I am posting this as part of an effort to slowly educate myself a bit.
November 18, 2008
Guess who said it, Part II
I liked what Katie did, so here's another:
If you're going to go in and try to topple Saddam Hussein, you have to go to Baghdad. Once you've got Baghdad, it's not clear what you do with it. It's not clear what kind of government you would put in place of the one that's currently there now. Is it going to be a Shia regime, a Sunni regime or a Kurdish regime? Or one that tilts toward the Baathists, or one that tilts toward the Islamic fundamentalists? How much credibility is that government going to have if it's set up by the United States military when it's there? How long does the United States military have to stay to protect the people that sign on for that government, and what happens to it once we leave?
I'll put the answer in the comments.
If you're going to go in and try to topple Saddam Hussein, you have to go to Baghdad. Once you've got Baghdad, it's not clear what you do with it. It's not clear what kind of government you would put in place of the one that's currently there now. Is it going to be a Shia regime, a Sunni regime or a Kurdish regime? Or one that tilts toward the Baathists, or one that tilts toward the Islamic fundamentalists? How much credibility is that government going to have if it's set up by the United States military when it's there? How long does the United States military have to stay to protect the people that sign on for that government, and what happens to it once we leave?
I'll put the answer in the comments.
Guess who said it
...then see if you can make any sense of it. I'm not having much luck.
"My concern has been the atrocities there in Darfur and the relevance to me with that issue as we spoke about Africa and some of the countries there that were kind of the people succumbing to the dictators and the corruption of some collapsed governments on the continent, the relevance was Alaska’s investment in Darfur with some of our permanent fund dollars."
"My concern has been the atrocities there in Darfur and the relevance to me with that issue as we spoke about Africa and some of the countries there that were kind of the people succumbing to the dictators and the corruption of some collapsed governments on the continent, the relevance was Alaska’s investment in Darfur with some of our permanent fund dollars."
Lieberman retains committee chair
I'll be brief, but let me just say I may be the only left-leaning sorta-pundit in the country who thinks this is a good idea. The basics of my argument (I'm so tired of typing) would be:
(1) why usher in an era of bipartisanship and unity by kicking someone out for insufficient loyalty
(2) it's certainly not beyond possibility (though it is beyond probability) that the Dems can get 60
(3) even if they don't get 60, the Republicans will not be able to keep the team together well so every vote counts
(4) the guy really is not a Republican. He really isn't. Get over it.
(With regard to point 3, I was trying to find an excellent article I read yesterday about Republican infighting in the Senate - not over philosophy, but over committee assignments, especially with powerful Republican Ted Stevens on the outs one way or the other. If the Democrats ended up with 59 seats to the Republicans' 41, any one of those Republicans can say to Majority Leader McConnell "you best give me that committee assignment or I'll make the next two years as tough as possible for you.")
(Also, despite my phrasing, I don't mean to say that I think you're dumb if you disagree so don't be discouraged, but this the way I see it.)
(1) why usher in an era of bipartisanship and unity by kicking someone out for insufficient loyalty
(2) it's certainly not beyond possibility (though it is beyond probability) that the Dems can get 60
(3) even if they don't get 60, the Republicans will not be able to keep the team together well so every vote counts
(4) the guy really is not a Republican. He really isn't. Get over it.
(With regard to point 3, I was trying to find an excellent article I read yesterday about Republican infighting in the Senate - not over philosophy, but over committee assignments, especially with powerful Republican Ted Stevens on the outs one way or the other. If the Democrats ended up with 59 seats to the Republicans' 41, any one of those Republicans can say to Majority Leader McConnell "you best give me that committee assignment or I'll make the next two years as tough as possible for you.")
(Also, despite my phrasing, I don't mean to say that I think you're dumb if you disagree so don't be discouraged, but this the way I see it.)
Serious question: anyone want to go see Star Trek in May?
I never thought I would be at all interested in seeing the new Star Trek movie, but after seeing a trailer and looking at the cast list I changed my opinion. Seriously, check out this trailer. The cast includes Zacary Quinto (Sylar/Gabriel from Heroes) as Spock, Simon Pegg (the skinnier British guy from Hot Fuzz and Shawn of the Dead) as Scotty, Eric Bana (star of Munich) as the villain Nero, and John Cho (Harold of Harold and Kumar) as Sulu. The main drawback of the casting: Tyler Perry makes a cameo appearance.
Warren and Katie may yet get me into Battlestar Gallactica.
Warren and Katie may yet get me into Battlestar Gallactica.
November 17, 2008
Rebuilding the Republican Brand
Oh, what I would do to not hear that phrase anymore!
First, the Republicans lost one election. They're 0-for-1 in the last one, but 2-for-the-last-3, 5-for-8, 7-for-11, and 9-for-15. In a two-team sport, that ain't bad.
Second, they weren't going to win this one no matter what they did. America arbitrarily decided in early 2006 that they were tired of the war, which cost them the 2006 elections. Epic presidential incompetence and an also-epic financial collapse doomed the GOP in 2008.
But liberals beware. When Republicans say that America is still a center-right nation, they're right. The only thing they need to do any differently is make sure they have an intelligent-sounding candidate at the wheel.
In easy times, it's not difficult to turn gay marriage into an end-of-the-world issue, because everything else is going OK. With somebody like Mitt Romney in charge the last four years (to erase the competency problem) and particularly the last four months (for the sake of the economy) Democrats would not have waltzed to the White House. They didn't win because people suddenly demand an end to the death penalty or harsher CAFE standards. They won largely as a referendum on the current government.
So the Republicans' return is a two-step program. (1) Choose somebody smart, like people who aren't named W. or Palin. (2) Dust off the 2004 playbook. John McCain didn't really talk about gay marriage or abortion. He didn't make us believe that electing Barack Obama meant we'd get hit by terrorists again. Those things wouldn't have won him the election, but they would have helped. And if the Republicans want to come back in 2010, or 2012, or 2016, they better have the right game plan.
(And they're not bad strategists, so for God's sake don't count them out.)
First, the Republicans lost one election. They're 0-for-1 in the last one, but 2-for-the-last-3, 5-for-8, 7-for-11, and 9-for-15. In a two-team sport, that ain't bad.
Second, they weren't going to win this one no matter what they did. America arbitrarily decided in early 2006 that they were tired of the war, which cost them the 2006 elections. Epic presidential incompetence and an also-epic financial collapse doomed the GOP in 2008.
But liberals beware. When Republicans say that America is still a center-right nation, they're right. The only thing they need to do any differently is make sure they have an intelligent-sounding candidate at the wheel.
In easy times, it's not difficult to turn gay marriage into an end-of-the-world issue, because everything else is going OK. With somebody like Mitt Romney in charge the last four years (to erase the competency problem) and particularly the last four months (for the sake of the economy) Democrats would not have waltzed to the White House. They didn't win because people suddenly demand an end to the death penalty or harsher CAFE standards. They won largely as a referendum on the current government.
So the Republicans' return is a two-step program. (1) Choose somebody smart, like people who aren't named W. or Palin. (2) Dust off the 2004 playbook. John McCain didn't really talk about gay marriage or abortion. He didn't make us believe that electing Barack Obama meant we'd get hit by terrorists again. Those things wouldn't have won him the election, but they would have helped. And if the Republicans want to come back in 2010, or 2012, or 2016, they better have the right game plan.
(And they're not bad strategists, so for God's sake don't count them out.)
Win Differential and Overtime Losses
Sorry ladies, this probably won't be too interesting. Go read this instead.
I was checking on the NHL standings this morning. Now, the Blues weren't expected to have a great year, so when they started 4-1-0 everyone got excited. Now we're 6-8-2 and only 1 pt ahead of Florida for the worst record in the league.
Anyway, as I was looking at the standings I got curious about overtime losses and how frequently they occur.
Background: in the NHL tied games would go to a five minute overtime. If anyone scored, they instantly won the game. Otherwise, it ended in a tie. Since a win gets you 2 pts, a loss 0 pts, and a tie is worth 1 pt, essentially both teams would hedge their bets and more-or-less run out the clock so as to keep their hard-earned point. Among its many initiatives to make the game more interesting, the NHL now gives 2 pts to a team that wins in OT but 1 pt to a team that loses in OT to facilitate "trying" to win, and has also added a post-OT shootout so that no game can end in a tie.
So I was looking at the standings, wondering if anything made some teams more likely to rack up OTL's than others, and if I could find it without looking very hard for data. I thought it was reasonable that teams with about the same number of wins as losses would simply go to OT more often, and thus lose in OT more often. So I took all the data from the three years this rule has been in effect and regressed OTL against the absolute value of (W-L).
Nothing says it more clearly than this picture. There is no correlation. The p-value is 0.954. R-sq, the measure of how much of the variability in one variable is explained by the other, is 0.00003. So teams around .500 have the same number of OTLs as teams at the bottom or top of the standings.
Now here's where I got perplexed. Just for kicks I ran the same regression, just without the absolute value. So now the question is whether better teams have more OTLs or fewer OTLs.
Clearly, there is a strong relationship here. It turns out that the p-value is 0.04, though the r-sq is still only 0.05. The equation is OTL = 9.65 - 0.04*(W-L). So better teams have fewer OTLs.
Unfortunately, it took me until I was preparing this last graph to realize that of course they do! Because W means wins but L means regulation losses. Or put another way, "OTWs" are included in W.
So say every team played 100 games with 45 wins, 45 losses, and 10 going to OT. Half the teams go 7-3 for the year in OT and half the teams go 3-7. So half the teams have a record of 52-45-3 and half the teams have a record of 48-45-7.
So the two data points are {(7,3) and (3,7)}. In other words, even when I cooked the data to come out even it didn't, so my model can't be used.
So I screwed up and put a confounding variable in my model. Oh well. If I figure out an easy fix I'll update, but at this point I'm not scrapping the whole post.
I was checking on the NHL standings this morning. Now, the Blues weren't expected to have a great year, so when they started 4-1-0 everyone got excited. Now we're 6-8-2 and only 1 pt ahead of Florida for the worst record in the league.
Anyway, as I was looking at the standings I got curious about overtime losses and how frequently they occur.
Background: in the NHL tied games would go to a five minute overtime. If anyone scored, they instantly won the game. Otherwise, it ended in a tie. Since a win gets you 2 pts, a loss 0 pts, and a tie is worth 1 pt, essentially both teams would hedge their bets and more-or-less run out the clock so as to keep their hard-earned point. Among its many initiatives to make the game more interesting, the NHL now gives 2 pts to a team that wins in OT but 1 pt to a team that loses in OT to facilitate "trying" to win, and has also added a post-OT shootout so that no game can end in a tie.
So I was looking at the standings, wondering if anything made some teams more likely to rack up OTL's than others, and if I could find it without looking very hard for data. I thought it was reasonable that teams with about the same number of wins as losses would simply go to OT more often, and thus lose in OT more often. So I took all the data from the three years this rule has been in effect and regressed OTL against the absolute value of (W-L).
Nothing says it more clearly than this picture. There is no correlation. The p-value is 0.954. R-sq, the measure of how much of the variability in one variable is explained by the other, is 0.00003. So teams around .500 have the same number of OTLs as teams at the bottom or top of the standings.
Now here's where I got perplexed. Just for kicks I ran the same regression, just without the absolute value. So now the question is whether better teams have more OTLs or fewer OTLs.
Clearly, there is a strong relationship here. It turns out that the p-value is 0.04, though the r-sq is still only 0.05. The equation is OTL = 9.65 - 0.04*(W-L). So better teams have fewer OTLs.
Unfortunately, it took me until I was preparing this last graph to realize that of course they do! Because W means wins but L means regulation losses. Or put another way, "OTWs" are included in W.
So say every team played 100 games with 45 wins, 45 losses, and 10 going to OT. Half the teams go 7-3 for the year in OT and half the teams go 3-7. So half the teams have a record of 52-45-3 and half the teams have a record of 48-45-7.
So the two data points are {(7,3) and (3,7)}. In other words, even when I cooked the data to come out even it didn't, so my model can't be used.
So I screwed up and put a confounding variable in my model. Oh well. If I figure out an easy fix I'll update, but at this point I'm not scrapping the whole post.
November 14, 2008
Moving On
I apologize for the extent to which I hijacked the site for political rantings the last couple months. But now that the election is over I think we're all in agreement about the desire to have general discussions on a variety of interesting topics, political or not.
To that end, well, I need something to do. So if you have anything I can research, or analyze, or whatever, gimme some ideas. Does the stock market do better when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties? Do the long travel distances mean that sports teams in the West get more of a home-field advantage? I dunno, I'll take anything.
To that end, well, I need something to do. So if you have anything I can research, or analyze, or whatever, gimme some ideas. Does the stock market do better when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties? Do the long travel distances mean that sports teams in the West get more of a home-field advantage? I dunno, I'll take anything.
"The Post Free-Market Era"
I keep reading articles about what Obama needs to do to fix the economy that seem to cite capitalism's obituary. I'm still a strong marketeer but perhaps I'm too stuck in the theory to accept the new state of the world. As far as capitalists go I've always leaned left, but been a capitalist nonetheless.
So my real question is, is this crisis a blow to the heart of capitalism? I know "the people" are calling for regulation left and right, but is this the sort of thing that has economists going "yeah, it's time to accept that markets need more regulation to function properly" or are they saying "this certainly isn't good but keeping markets free is the best way out"?
(And referring to an earlier grammar post, I am unapologetic about omitting the two pre-quotation-mark commas as well as putting my question mark outside the quotation mark.)
So my real question is, is this crisis a blow to the heart of capitalism? I know "the people" are calling for regulation left and right, but is this the sort of thing that has economists going "yeah, it's time to accept that markets need more regulation to function properly" or are they saying "this certainly isn't good but keeping markets free is the best way out"?
(And referring to an earlier grammar post, I am unapologetic about omitting the two pre-quotation-mark commas as well as putting my question mark outside the quotation mark.)
This is just the beginning...
The Green Revolution!
On a more serious note, it's about time something is done about the ridiculousness of Times Square energy consumption. On election night, ABC was so proud of itself for having commandeered all of the fancy billboards and screens in Times Square. Bart aptly noted the unbelievable excess of this in regards to energy consumption. Well, at least one billboard is starting to change...hopefully this will catch on, and quickly.
On a more serious note, it's about time something is done about the ridiculousness of Times Square energy consumption. On election night, ABC was so proud of itself for having commandeered all of the fancy billboards and screens in Times Square. Bart aptly noted the unbelievable excess of this in regards to energy consumption. Well, at least one billboard is starting to change...hopefully this will catch on, and quickly.
Jon Stewart is totally my boyfriend, part a bajillion
Who saw his interview with Bill O'Reilly last night? It was EPIC.
I don't know how to post videos from the web, and this dumbass computer won't even load comedycentral.com's video page, but go there! Watch it! Revel!
I don't know how to post videos from the web, and this dumbass computer won't even load comedycentral.com's video page, but go there! Watch it! Revel!
New gameshow: Bush, Kennedy, or other!
I would really like to see a gameshow that asks contestants to listen to stories of idiocy and decide whether the stupid acts were committed by a Bush (W. Bush and Jeb leading the charge), a Kennedy (Ted, Arnold, and the various Juniors!), or a mere mortal (a la these guys). Just a thought.
P.S.- I always feel compelled to specify exactly which Bush we are talking about even though there is rarely confusion; this is simply a personal enjoyment of exactitude. That said, my fallback of 'W' has been taken by Oliver Stone. My solution: I will refer to our current president as either Walker Bush or W. Bush, assuming that not many will confuse either of those monikers with Herbert Walker Bush or H.W. Bush. I just really don't want to give Stone any more press than necessary because I can't even elevate that guy to hit or miss; having seen five of his movies I would only consider Platoon to be a good movie (the others I am thinking of are: Alexander, JFK, Any Given Sunday, and The Doors).
P.S.- I always feel compelled to specify exactly which Bush we are talking about even though there is rarely confusion; this is simply a personal enjoyment of exactitude. That said, my fallback of 'W' has been taken by Oliver Stone. My solution: I will refer to our current president as either Walker Bush or W. Bush, assuming that not many will confuse either of those monikers with Herbert Walker Bush or H.W. Bush. I just really don't want to give Stone any more press than necessary because I can't even elevate that guy to hit or miss; having seen five of his movies I would only consider Platoon to be a good movie (the others I am thinking of are: Alexander, JFK, Any Given Sunday, and The Doors).
we're getting old
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, CHRIS!
ps, I'm slightly disturbed by Bush's the shocker. While being a wildly inappropriate gesture for the president to make, I struggle with the smile on his face. What's he thinking? Does he know what he's doing? Does everyone else in the crowd know what they have made him do? Is he happy to have the opportunity to pose in shocker position? As I said, I am struggling with it. Stupid Arizona State, and the "fake sport" of track!
ps, I'm slightly disturbed by Bush's the shocker. While being a wildly inappropriate gesture for the president to make, I struggle with the smile on his face. What's he thinking? Does he know what he's doing? Does everyone else in the crowd know what they have made him do? Is he happy to have the opportunity to pose in shocker position? As I said, I am struggling with it. Stupid Arizona State, and the "fake sport" of track!
Almost Makes You Miss Him
Unfortunately they're calling this the "ASU Pitchfork" (they're the Sun Devils) but as the article aptly puts it, I think he's just doing it on purpose.
Secretary of State Clinton?
I've been saying for a while that I liked this idea a lot. I mean, who was more experience, more contacts, etc.? The only problem? I meant the other Clinton.
Hillary Clinton is apparently being thrown around as a possible secretary of state. I, for one, don't buy it. I don't see how that helps Obama govern. I don't see how that helps Hillary get done things that she wants to get done. I don't see how it helps anybody. If she gets a cabinet post I'd think it would be Health and Human Services or something like that.
I do like Bill Richardson as secretary of state. Not sure how I'd feel about John Kerry - of course, I did want him to be president once.
Hillary Clinton is apparently being thrown around as a possible secretary of state. I, for one, don't buy it. I don't see how that helps Obama govern. I don't see how that helps Hillary get done things that she wants to get done. I don't see how it helps anybody. If she gets a cabinet post I'd think it would be Health and Human Services or something like that.
I do like Bill Richardson as secretary of state. Not sure how I'd feel about John Kerry - of course, I did want him to be president once.
Car talk
I can't remember in which thread Chris asked about opinions on the possibility of a bailout for the automakers in the USA, so I decided to start a new thread.
Overall I think the bailout is necessary. Because the credit markets have dried up completely the major automakers would be unable to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy, which requires the company to continue operating during the proceedings. Without access to credit they would be forced to stop operating, which drops them into chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as total liquidation. I would love to support the free-market argument right now, but I am not sure that the efficiency gains that would be brought about by the death of these dinosaurs of companies, these iconic names of America, would offset the negative effects of the layoffs, the further drop in (The Conference Board's index of) consumer confidence (already at its lowest level since the index was created in 1967), and the ripple effects felt by supporting industries (e.g. car sales lots).
All that said, I really wish I could see domestic car companies die because of their stupid decisions (e.g. non-military Hummers). But allowing these companies to die as the economy heads into a recession may significantly increase the likelihood that the recession becomes a depression, a risk I do not think this country should take, particularly as the 'untouchable' Eurozone declares itself to be in a recession.
Overall I think the bailout is necessary. Because the credit markets have dried up completely the major automakers would be unable to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy, which requires the company to continue operating during the proceedings. Without access to credit they would be forced to stop operating, which drops them into chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as total liquidation. I would love to support the free-market argument right now, but I am not sure that the efficiency gains that would be brought about by the death of these dinosaurs of companies, these iconic names of America, would offset the negative effects of the layoffs, the further drop in (The Conference Board's index of) consumer confidence (already at its lowest level since the index was created in 1967), and the ripple effects felt by supporting industries (e.g. car sales lots).
All that said, I really wish I could see domestic car companies die because of their stupid decisions (e.g. non-military Hummers). But allowing these companies to die as the economy heads into a recession may significantly increase the likelihood that the recession becomes a depression, a risk I do not think this country should take, particularly as the 'untouchable' Eurozone declares itself to be in a recession.
November 13, 2008
Awesome NYT County Maps
I feel like this has come up here before but in case it hasn't - I can't stop looking at this map. It's like the coolest thing ever.
This is a comparison of the 2008 Obama-McCain margin with the 2004 Kerry-Bush margin by county. So blue counties got bluer (even if they're red counties) and red counties got redder (even if they're blue counties).
Arizona's mildly redder, no surprise there. I'll say this: while my initial reaction was "hey, everybody turned on the Republicans - except the racists in the south," it looks a bit more complicated. First of all, many poor and/or black people have had to move away from southern Louisiana, explaining part of the shift there. Also, Arkansas clearly has a problem, but keep in mind that it is the (original) home state of a former Obama rival (what was her name again?) and so there could quite understandably be some bitterness there. If you count out those two regions, you're left with what is closer to being Appalachia than the South. So when it comes to racism, maybe coal mines are the new cotton fields?
For comparison, here's the 2008 Obama-McCain margin against the 1992 Clinton-Bush margin: (And even more reason not to call 2008 a presidential landslide)
This is a comparison of the 2008 Obama-McCain margin with the 2004 Kerry-Bush margin by county. So blue counties got bluer (even if they're red counties) and red counties got redder (even if they're blue counties).
Arizona's mildly redder, no surprise there. I'll say this: while my initial reaction was "hey, everybody turned on the Republicans - except the racists in the south," it looks a bit more complicated. First of all, many poor and/or black people have had to move away from southern Louisiana, explaining part of the shift there. Also, Arkansas clearly has a problem, but keep in mind that it is the (original) home state of a former Obama rival (what was her name again?) and so there could quite understandably be some bitterness there. If you count out those two regions, you're left with what is closer to being Appalachia than the South. So when it comes to racism, maybe coal mines are the new cotton fields?
For comparison, here's the 2008 Obama-McCain margin against the 1992 Clinton-Bush margin: (And even more reason not to call 2008 a presidential landslide)
My 'Holy crap my life will be changed by this' moment of the week
Thanks to The Economist for informing me about how WiFi will be improved in the near future. The use of White Space frequencies between television channels may lead to "[...] unlimited access to WiFi hotspots that stretched for miles instead of a few hundred feet, provided unbroken connections even deep inside buildings, and offered broadband speeds ten times faster than today’s wimpy connections [...]"
I highly recommend you read through the end of the article because the last few paragraphs highlight Google's manipulation of the FCC to Google's own advantage. Yet another step toward Leviathan Google running the country using Internet polls, search trends (as mentioned by Carly in her post about tracking the flu), and wireless phone usage.
I highly recommend you read through the end of the article because the last few paragraphs highlight Google's manipulation of the FCC to Google's own advantage. Yet another step toward Leviathan Google running the country using Internet polls, search trends (as mentioned by Carly in her post about tracking the flu), and wireless phone usage.
Don't burn tobacco; burn Jews!
Before reading this Wikipedia page I had no idea that Hitler hated anything more than minorities. It is also nice to see that not only did Hitler carry out one of the worst genocides in history, but he managed to turn smoking into a taboo based on discriminatory views on women, using the argument that "Women who smoked were considered to be vulnerable to premature aging and loss of physical attractiveness; they were viewed as unsuitable to be wives and mothers in a German family." I hate it when evil people get some things right (the non-smoking thing, not the sexism thing).
Hitler was evil, but had this one good campaign (I know that one could argue that the reconstruction of a German identity was a good thing, but for the sake of a comedic argument let's assume this was his only good campaign). Who best epitomizes the reverse of this? That is, which good person in a very public position has openly endorsed, supported, and/or led a campaign based on ignorant hatred? I am struggling to come up with a decent example of the type of person about which I am thinking. Any thoughts?
Hitler was evil, but had this one good campaign (I know that one could argue that the reconstruction of a German identity was a good thing, but for the sake of a comedic argument let's assume this was his only good campaign). Who best epitomizes the reverse of this? That is, which good person in a very public position has openly endorsed, supported, and/or led a campaign based on ignorant hatred? I am struggling to come up with a decent example of the type of person about which I am thinking. Any thoughts?
AK-Senate
In case you hadn't heard, 60,000 ballots later Mark Begich now has a slight 814 vote lead over Uncle Ted Stevens in Alaska. There still remain many ballots to be counted, but Intrade contracts have gone up to about 95 for the Dems to take the seat.
That would be 58 on the books, with MN and GA remaining.
That would be 58 on the books, with MN and GA remaining.
Talk about a bad year for Republicans...
Losing the presidency sucks, but it happens fairly regularly for each major party; losing ground in the House and Senate also sucks, but also has precedent and should not be too painful. The losses that hurt the most (in terms of confidence and mood, not political influence) are the ones like this, where a "teenybopper" takes an elected position from your party.
Post-Election Analysis: House Edition
So how did things go in the House? As of right now we have 255 Dems and 174 Republicans with 6 races undecided. I predicted (split the tossups) 258-177, so right now I'm not looking too bad.
Now, I didn't really stake much on the House races because there just wasn't much information available. I did the best I could to put predictions together based on information from Wikipedia, polls, CQ politics, etc. Interestingly, of the races still undecided, all of them were classified as "Safe" or "Strong" as opposed to "Weak" or "Tossup".
I probably could have put together a better graph, but here we can see that I predicted 253 seats to go to Dems. 245 went to Dems, 4 to Reps, and 4 undecideds. I predicted 172 seats to Republicans. 166 went to Reps, 4 went to Dems, and 2 undecideds. Dems won 6 of the 10 tossups.
There are six remaining races. Ethan Berkowitz will gain on Don Young in AK, but unlike the senate race, the Republican here may have too large of a lead to overcome. Bill "Cold Hard Cash" Jefferson is in a tossup in LA-02. LA-04 is also a tossup. CA-04 features a race that was tight all year, while OH-15 and VA-05 are tossups where every single poll was lead by the same candidate, a Democrat and Republican respectively.
Now, I didn't really stake much on the House races because there just wasn't much information available. I did the best I could to put predictions together based on information from Wikipedia, polls, CQ politics, etc. Interestingly, of the races still undecided, all of them were classified as "Safe" or "Strong" as opposed to "Weak" or "Tossup".
I probably could have put together a better graph, but here we can see that I predicted 253 seats to go to Dems. 245 went to Dems, 4 to Reps, and 4 undecideds. I predicted 172 seats to Republicans. 166 went to Reps, 4 went to Dems, and 2 undecideds. Dems won 6 of the 10 tossups.
November 12, 2008
That's right
NYU Medical Center receives $200 million gift.
Working here, I could share many, many details about this particular announcement. I could also make many suggestions about what that money should fund, as opposed to what it will fund. Actually, that is part of my job...
Working here, I could share many, many details about this particular announcement. I could also make many suggestions about what that money should fund, as opposed to what it will fund. Actually, that is part of my job...
Some Preliminary Analysis
Unfortunately there is still not enough data to do the analysis I'd like to do - I mean, we've still got one state and two senate races that are too close to call (Georgia's senate race is not over because of the upcoming runoff - the first election, however, undoubtedly was won by Chambliss).
Here's what I know so far. My best projection was Obama 53.1 to McCain 45.9. This was done by a straight-line projection from their polling average, which means that I allocated more of the undecideds to Obama than McCain; I guessed McCain would edge Obama on undecideds but did not take the time to adjust the model. Nonetheless, with 126M votes recorded, the totals thus far of Obama 52.7 McCain 46.0 are not very far from my predictions.
One question of interest is how much of the error in my predictions was tied to how much polling was done in a state. So I did a simple (but nonlinear) regression of Absolute Error against Polling Strength (the sum of each poll's weight, which comes from its age and the reliability of its pollster).
The results fit pretty tightly. I'll try to keep this simple for the non-statistical folks.
Polling Strength (PS) ranged from 0.16 in DC, HI, and MD to 12.95 in MO, with a median of 2.0 and a mean of 3.16. (So Missouri is the farthest blue dot to the right)
Absolute Error (AE) ranged from 0.2% in NH to 22.5% in HI with a median of 2.25% and a mean of 3.8%. (So Hawaii is the highest blue dot from the bottom)
The regression equation is: AE = 4.65 - 1.66*ln(PS)
So MO's expected error is 0.4% and DC's is 7.7%
The p-value on this result is 0.0005. For the non-stat crowd, statisticians never say they've proven anything. What they do say however, is that this result is so extreme you would only see it 1 in 2,000 times by chance. 1 in 20 is generally the rule for significance, so this is a highly significant result. Finally r^2 is 0.25, meaning one quarter of the variability in the model's error is attributable solely to how much polling was done.
*************************
Wow, I really made that more boring than I thought I could.
What is most striking to me is that graph, where I think the line fits pretty well. The takeaway from this is that when people say polls are useless, this is meant as evidence that that's not true, provided you have a good set of polls and not just one or two. Hawaii, for example, had very little polling and the last poll conducted there was way off the mark. My prediction error was 22.5% including it and 4.4% excluding it. In states with more polls this sort of problem could not have arisen.
I'll have data that's actually interesting once more data comes in.
Here's what I know so far. My best projection was Obama 53.1 to McCain 45.9. This was done by a straight-line projection from their polling average, which means that I allocated more of the undecideds to Obama than McCain; I guessed McCain would edge Obama on undecideds but did not take the time to adjust the model. Nonetheless, with 126M votes recorded, the totals thus far of Obama 52.7 McCain 46.0 are not very far from my predictions.
One question of interest is how much of the error in my predictions was tied to how much polling was done in a state. So I did a simple (but nonlinear) regression of Absolute Error against Polling Strength (the sum of each poll's weight, which comes from its age and the reliability of its pollster).
The results fit pretty tightly. I'll try to keep this simple for the non-statistical folks.
Polling Strength (PS) ranged from 0.16 in DC, HI, and MD to 12.95 in MO, with a median of 2.0 and a mean of 3.16. (So Missouri is the farthest blue dot to the right)
Absolute Error (AE) ranged from 0.2% in NH to 22.5% in HI with a median of 2.25% and a mean of 3.8%. (So Hawaii is the highest blue dot from the bottom)
The regression equation is: AE = 4.65 - 1.66*ln(PS)
So MO's expected error is 0.4% and DC's is 7.7%
The p-value on this result is 0.0005. For the non-stat crowd, statisticians never say they've proven anything. What they do say however, is that this result is so extreme you would only see it 1 in 2,000 times by chance. 1 in 20 is generally the rule for significance, so this is a highly significant result. Finally r^2 is 0.25, meaning one quarter of the variability in the model's error is attributable solely to how much polling was done.
*************************
Wow, I really made that more boring than I thought I could.
What is most striking to me is that graph, where I think the line fits pretty well. The takeaway from this is that when people say polls are useless, this is meant as evidence that that's not true, provided you have a good set of polls and not just one or two. Hawaii, for example, had very little polling and the last poll conducted there was way off the mark. My prediction error was 22.5% including it and 4.4% excluding it. In states with more polls this sort of problem could not have arisen.
I'll have data that's actually interesting once more data comes in.
google, saving the world
I was very impressed with Google's developments in epidemiological tracking systems, given that people I talk to on a daily basis are frustrated with the difficulties in disseminating crucial and timely information. Google is ahead of the game- possibly 10 days ahead of the CDC! (That is an unbelievable number. Way to go, Google.)
I highly recommend checking out some of their other projects at google.org.
I highly recommend checking out some of their other projects at google.org.
Obama the Artist
Maybe this just goes to show how much of an Obama maniac I am, but I actually really like this doodle by the president-elect. Here's the story.
Left to right: Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid, Dianne Feinstein, Ted Kennedy
Left to right: Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid, Dianne Feinstein, Ted Kennedy
What to do about the Big 3
Well this is an active morning at the message board. So here's my question: what should we do with GM, Ford, and Chrysler?
I don't want to poison the well or whatever the phrase is, so I'll hold off a bit before commenting.
I don't want to poison the well or whatever the phrase is, so I'll hold off a bit before commenting.
Heads Up
In case you hadn't heard, apparently Jamie Gorelick is on the shortlist for Attorney General, but there is no shortage of controversy around her. Just keepin' the people informed.
My Plea to President Obama
Mr. President-Elect,
We are clearly in difficult times. This is no secret. What is of note is the number of problems we face whose solutions are clear but unpopular. Now may not be the time to make tax cuts more progressive. Defense spending must be slashed (or shifted to defense). Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security all pose huge problems into the future.
I don't feel like there would be major disagreement on how to handle these problems if you got a bunch of big-name economists together and had them craft the ideal solutions. What such solutions would be, however, is wildly unpopular.
But you have a unique opportunity. You have a decisive majority in Congress and could still reach 60 seats in the Senate. And you're young. Like, super young.
So do what we need done. Do what's not popular. Solve our crises. The worst case scenario is that you lose the election in 2012. But that's cool. Like I've said before, you could go chill in the Senate for 20 more years, and run in 2032 still younger than John McCain is now. Even if it costs you the next election, do what we need done.
Unless Sarah Palin wins the nomination.
We are clearly in difficult times. This is no secret. What is of note is the number of problems we face whose solutions are clear but unpopular. Now may not be the time to make tax cuts more progressive. Defense spending must be slashed (or shifted to defense). Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security all pose huge problems into the future.
I don't feel like there would be major disagreement on how to handle these problems if you got a bunch of big-name economists together and had them craft the ideal solutions. What such solutions would be, however, is wildly unpopular.
But you have a unique opportunity. You have a decisive majority in Congress and could still reach 60 seats in the Senate. And you're young. Like, super young.
So do what we need done. Do what's not popular. Solve our crises. The worst case scenario is that you lose the election in 2012. But that's cool. Like I've said before, you could go chill in the Senate for 20 more years, and run in 2032 still younger than John McCain is now. Even if it costs you the next election, do what we need done.
Unless Sarah Palin wins the nomination.
President Who?
I think it is absolutely remarkable how much we are hearing about President-Elect Obama's plan to fix the economy, or what he is saying about the economy today, or who is economic advisors are. There is an across-the-board concession that there is nothing President Bush can or will do to solve this that I would have never predicted. I assumed we'd hear little about him as the campaign heated up, but even now that it's over people don't give a hoot what the guy's up to. It even seems like Republicans wish Obama could just take over tomorrow. Heck, it kind of even seems like President Bush wishes he could leave. Everything he says just rings of "ya know, I'm outta here in two weeks anyway."
As an aside, when I look at him these days, for some reason I always get this feeling in my gut where I feel a little sorry for him. Of course, when I look back at all the crap he's pulled I'm snapped back to life, but it just seems like deep down he's got some sort of sad puppy look about him. Am I crazy? Anybody else getting this?
As an aside, when I look at him these days, for some reason I always get this feeling in my gut where I feel a little sorry for him. Of course, when I look back at all the crap he's pulled I'm snapped back to life, but it just seems like deep down he's got some sort of sad puppy look about him. Am I crazy? Anybody else getting this?
TroopTube?
I had no idea the Department of Defense put restrictions on their international servers, though I suppose it makes sense, especially with their reasoning of bandwidth issues. And now they've made up their own video site...TroopTube. And it may actually be technologically advancing:
"But the startup's real forte is making sure searches on the site turn up the best video results. Delve's system turns a video's sound into a text transcript. It pares unimportant words like "this" and "that," then compares what's left against a massive database of words commonly uttered in proximity to each other, collected from crawling hundreds of millions of Web pages.
The result: Even if speech recognition software trips on the one word someone is searching for, there's a good chance Delve can still deliver relevant results."
The result: Even if speech recognition software trips on the one word someone is searching for, there's a good chance Delve can still deliver relevant results."
...I'm a federal employee, paid by the DoD...and I access youtube on my computer! Don't tell anyone
November 11, 2008
November 10, 2008
Nate Silver = Doogie Howser (but with math)?
"By kindergarten, he could multiply two-digit numbers in his head. By 11, he was conducting multivariate analysis to figure out if the size of a baseball stadium affects attendance (it doesn’t). By age 13, he was using statistics to manage a fantasy baseball team. When his parents refused to buy him computer games, he taught himself the Basic programming language and created his own."
Daa-yum. Go Nate. Not so much Keith.
to me, "Generation O" sounds vaguely dirty...
There's a lot of sweeping statements in here about "young people today" ("they love checklists" was pretty spot-on for me) and general feel-goodery about Obama, but...honestly, it made me feel good. Read it, pat yourself on the back, and enjoy what little of the honeymoon period we've got left.
Oh yeah, and then there's this: http://change.gov/, which is referenced in the article. Haven't had much time to check it out yet myself, but I plan to, and I'm interested in your reactions.
Oh yeah, and then there's this: http://change.gov/, which is referenced in the article. Haven't had much time to check it out yet myself, but I plan to, and I'm interested in your reactions.
requisite weekly NYTimes Magazine article link
This one's pretty long a little wonky (although what other type do I post, really?), but really fascinating in terms of checks & balances and executive power issues in the Bush era.
Also, if you're feeling a little too hopeful lately and are looking for some comforting, vilifying reminders of why to hate GWB a little more, this is your ticket.
Also, if you're feeling a little too hopeful lately and are looking for some comforting, vilifying reminders of why to hate GWB a little more, this is your ticket.
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