European Politicians Getting Bailout

Coming back from lunch NPR had a whole slew of politicians from across the pond calling on America to "take responsibility" and pass a bailout. What fortune for them. They get to bash America and call on someone else to do the heavy lifting on something they themselves will benefit from, both directly and indirectly. If they want to talk that kind of talk I'd like to see them chip in. Would the world tell us to "take responsibility" if we got hit by a $700B hurricane?

Misleading Claims by McCain on Obama’s Tax Plans

I knew there was something fishy about McCain's claim in the debate that Obama "wants to raise taxes on people making only $42,000 a year." And I was right. Shocker.

This article in the Times debunks several lies McCain has told about Obama's tax policy, as well as a couple that Obama's made about McCain.

Out of curiosity, what do you guys think of Obama's proposed tax policy? I support it, but have read a lot of mixed reactions....

Space Flight

OK, maybe this is old news by now but the first private spacecraft made orbit the other day. I'm (obviously) a big proponent of private spaceflight and look forward to going into space.

Now if only we could get that Space Elevator thing going.

(I just want to add: when I get depressed about the state of our world, I like to spend 5 minutes reading about the space elevator. It's just so unbelievably cool.)

Senate Race Master Thread

Same as EV Master Thread

Electoral Vote Master Thread

OK, I'm gonna perma-link this post and subsequent would-be posts will be added as comments to this thread.

Also, pictures that go with the posts will just have to go here, because I don't think I can include them as comments.

Pictures:
EVs, 09/11
Colorado, 09/25

Sucks to be an adult 2.0

(Compare to two weeks ago)

It Feels Nice

... to beat Nate Silver by nearly two weeks.
Me. Him.

Discussion Topic: Economy

I'm going to link to this on the right so we can have one discussion thread.

House Race Master Thread

This will be my main thread for posting about elections in the U.S. House of Representatives

Images:

September 29, 2008:


October 22, 2008: (sorry it got flip-turned upside-down)

First Debate

Alright, I'll chip in two cents. I don't know what the spin will do, but here's my read: basically, nobody really "won". Both candidates were pretty good, and both were rather boring.

But that's not what McCain needed. Any sports fan knows that, with his lead surging by any polling standard, Obama wants to run out the clock. And because Obama didn't look naive and because he didn't have a major gaffe, he essentially won because he's up by two touchdowns and a field goal, but now there's eight minutes left on the clock instead of ten. Same score, less time, McCain's in trouble.

(And, since this is the only foreign policy debate, you could argue that this is John's best chance, his only possession with a real shot.)

That's I'll I got.

She's freakin' out, man

Does anyone else get the sense, from the Katie Couric interview and reading about the meeting with Kissinger, that Palin is finally realizing that she's in way over her head?

Minor Improvement

I made it so the table in the corner is now a link to the homepage, so that if you click on it while viewing another page on the site you can just easily go back home. Note that clicking on the title accomplishes the same effect, but for now I've colored it the same color as the background because I wish we had a better one.

Also, just to note, I've invited Warren and Desiree to join us, though I don't know that they'll be contributing often.

I have to root for the Red Sox?!

As the 2008 MLB regular season winds down, we can start to see what the playoff picture will look like.

Boston is a good team - probably better than the Rays - but they appear headed for defeat in the division race. My basic model shows the following:

Red Sox
94 wins - 3%
95 wins - 36%
96 wins - 53%
97 wins - 9%

Rays
96 wins - 3%
97 wins - 39%
98 wins - 51%
99 wins - 7%

This gives Tampa Bay a 95% chance at a clean win in the division. This would set up a 2/3 matchup of Boston at LAA and a 1/4 Minnesota/Chicago White Sox at Tampa.

The Angels will be tough for Boston because they have such a strong pitching staff, but I think the Sox can prevail. To a lesser extent I'd say the same thing about Tampa Bay, but I think that, especially with the second round being a seven-game series in the ALCS, it is Los Angeles that is Boston's larger roadblock to the World Series.

In the National League things are less clear, but I am relatively confident that the NLCS will feature the Chicago Cubs taking down the winner of the NL East (New York/Philadelphia).

So I predict that it will most likely be the Red Sox and the Cubs in the World Series.

This makes things horrible for a Cardinals fan. Although the ecstasy from Tom Brady's knee is still brightening each and every day for me, I can't help but continue to hate Boston and all its teams. Except the Bruins. You can have them.

But this pales in comparison to my hatred for Chicago and its sports teams. The Cardinals-Cubs have the most underrated rivarly in sports, and the Cardinals have something special at stake this year. No team in North American professional sports can boast that their rival has failed to win a championship in more than a century. With the Cubs celebrating the centennial of their 1908 World Series this year, we in St. Louis ask them to hold off for just one more year, so that we can talk the best trash in all of sports.

So, even though the Cubs haven't won a World Series in the same time that the Cardinals were able to win 10 (although the Sox total of 2 in the same span - since 1926 - isn't anything to get excited about), they do present a huge challenge this year. Their run differential is the best in baseball, and their pitching staff is solid, headed by Carlos Zambrano, who recently threw a no-hitter (nevermind that he gave up a grand slam to the Cardinals in his first inning of work following the no-no). All-in-all, if it comes down to Sox-Cubs, I'd put 60% odds on the Cubs, but I'll root as hard as I can for the Sox anyway.

How much valuable corn was wasted 'constructing' this?

I hate you, Mid West.

And I know corn is not realistically valuable. I read Omnivore' Dilemma.

Making the Bible more interesting

I am obviously not a fan of the Bible, but I enjoyed the way it is presented here.

I Love Nate Silver

OK, so the guy's got no data on back-to-back conventions ever, and he still nailed it:

I swear I didn't doctor my graph in any way, except to change the axes. Damn.

Proposal

I think we should have a few running discussions going like, such as, and, one on the economy, or one for links, etc. All such semi-permanent threads should then have links on the permanent link list, and we can just keep one conversation going on pretty easily. Thoughts?

In Case You Didn't See

This is an interesting article about a suit by Bob Barr, who alleges that Obama and McCain both failed to follow the rules and deadlines to appear on the ballot in Texas.

This could be a huge sleeper issue. If it is true, and it seems the court offered little reasoning to back up its ruling against Barr, its implications are enormous. This would mean that neither McCain nor Obama could compete for Texas' 34 EVs. This alone would end the McCain campaign. Obama, however, never had a chance at Texas, so the only struggle would be whether Obama could get to 270 EVs, or whether the contest would go to the House. By that point, I can only imagine the furor.

Imagine if Obama gets fewer than 269 EVs. That means McCain would have won without the Texas issue, so there would be tremendous pressure on the House to elect him anyway. But the House will probably be Democratic. And all of this is without regarding what the popular vote does, which will be fuel for whichever fire wins it. I mean, I've heard a lot about how this election could make 2000 look like babies fighting over candy, but this is a step above all, and I can only assume would result in some pretty seroius rioting.

Thinking in advance

So what happens to the upper-right corner of this blog after the election? I figure we should start considering suggestions now so we have something we are happy with by the time mid-November rolls around. I would love to have more statistics up there, but: 1. don't really have a suggestion for the content; and 2. don't really have the skills to continue it.

Chris, if you will help teach me how to properly use Excel for statistics, I would greatly appreciate it and gladly help with the work that goes into the upper-right box.

He Didn't Listen To Me Earlier

Joe,

We're not asking anymore. No "please" or "thanks" or "no thanks" (or bridges). Stop talking. Now.

-America