March 19, 2009

Arrogant, Incompetent, and Greedy? I thought Obama was only one of those things ...

(and I mean that in the best way ...)

Just picture someone saying "It's the principle of the thing!" and you've probably got in mind someone who is at least 80 years old, and one way or another could be described by the word "crusty."

Well that's just what's going on with AIG. $165M is a lot of money, but the undeserved portion of that (due to arrogance, incompetence, or greed) is a far smaller number. Generously calling it half, I'll say this $80M is not that much to get worried about, and it's certainly not anything worth upending the structure of our legal system for.

That said, "someone" secretly removed a provision from the stimulus bill that would deal with this issue of AIG bonuses. And no matter which side of the argument you are on, you can bet that when there's a sixth of a billion dollars on the table, Principle can't afford a ticket to the show.

So who might have been a little more than friends with the folks at AIG? Let's check out the top ten list from OpenSecrets.org and see who's been getting the most contributions from AIG in the past 20 years:

Dodd, Chris (D) $281,038

Bush, George W (R) $200,560

Schumer, Charles (D) $111,875

Obama, Barack (D) $110,332

McCain, John (R) $99,249

Baucus, Max (D) $90,000

Kerry, John (D) $85,000

Johnson, Nancy L (R)
$75,400

Sununu, John E (R) $69,049

Clinton, Hillary (D) $61,515

An interesting list, to be sure, but still not the way I like it. Let's find out how much AIG has been shelling out to these guys on an annual basis:

Federal Candidate Total Yrs Annual

Obama, Barack (D) $110,332 4 $27,583

Bush, George W (R) $200,560 8 $25,070

Dodd, Chris (D) $281,038 20 $14,052

Clinton, Hillary (D) $61,515 8 $7,689

Sununu, John E (R) $69,049 12 $5,754

Schumer, Charles (D) $111,875 20 $5,594

McCain, John (R) $99,249 20 $4,962

Baucus, Max (D) $90,000 20 $4,500

Kerry, John (D) $85,000 20 $4,250

Johnson, Nancy (R)
$75,400 18 $4,189

Now look, I'm not out-and-out accusing Barack Obama of being corrupt on this one, though I wouldn't be surprised either. But if you're mad about AIG, it's hard not to take a look at this list and think things through.

And honestly, if you really want to know who I think is behind this "secret revision" in the stimulus bill, my money's on Chris Dodd. That's one corrupt (looking!) dude right there. (Side note) And increasingly, the rumor is that his Senate seat might be in jeopardy, something unheard of for a 34-year, extremely powerful Democratic Congressman from a very blue state.

March 18, 2009

Happy Birthday Bart!

You're 23 now! And old!

Baracketology

UPDATED:
Chris's 2009 NCAA Bracket
Obama's 2009 NCAA Bracket



I just love that the bracket has its own presidential seal.

(And let me add, by the way, that he has Syracuse beating Temple, whereas I have both teams losing before that game even gets played - we'll see who wins this epic showdown of knowhow (of which the president apparently has quite a bit) vs. basic mathematics!)

How do you heal an amputated limb?

I don't want to give too much away, but possibly the most interesting NPR segment I've ever heard aired this morning, about a guy who had his left arm amputated, only to start feeling intense pain in his phantom limb later on. He wasn't crazy - he knew he had no limb, but his brain was sending him signals to the contrary ("my whole arm clenched up really tight and my nails dug into my palm"). I'm not going to say anything else, so go listen here.

(By the way, I re-listened to this at work, and I laughed out loud both times the exchange ending with the doctor saying "how would you do that indeed?" came up at about 3:20)

March 17, 2009

Well played, Missouri

You can argue back and forth about the legitimacy of their actual stances, but I just wanted to shed some light on what appeared to me to be votes that were slightly above-average in principle from Missouri's two senators.

Claire McCaskill has a much easier case to make. She was one of three Democratic senators who voted against Obama's spending bill, along with Evan Bayh and Russ Feingold. She stands out because she and Feingold were the only two Democratic senators not to insert any earmarks into the bill, and both Bayh and Feingold are up for re-election in 2010, while she is not.

Chris Bond - well, I'm doing my best for a Republican ... He's actually in favor of earmarks, but at least he still had the guts to vote for the bill.

This was all part of an article that's generally unrelated, about popular presidents who struggled with issues of unity in their own party.

March 14, 2009

Roundup of Stewart/Cramer reactions

Yes, the whole thing has been overblown. No, it doesn't really matter. Yes, Jon took some cheap shots, easy to do on his home turf. But to be honest, I agree with everything he's ever said about the news media, both the other night with Jim Cramer (the extended version online is worth watching, btw) and a few years ago on Crossfire. The reaction has been great for both pure entertainment purposes and serious analysis of Jon's role in this crazy world.

Highlights:

Andrew Sullivan @ The Atlantic ("what Stewart has done is rip off that little band-aid of faux solidarity for a modicum of ethical and moral accountability")

"Tim F." @ some blog called Balloon Juice ("For a reason that escapes me, people who are paid to understand politics all seem to think that “access” to people with a PR staff will get them some special insight when the only difference between speaking to them anonymously and asking their spokesperson is that the person can lie and most people will never know. Naturally the public would know if you called him on it, but then he wouldn’t take your calls. Catch 22!")

Bruce Watson @ Daily Finance ("[Stewart] is, effectively, America's fool. In the classic context, a fool was the only one in a king's court who could speak the truth because he was also the only one capable of making it palatable")

Megan McArdle, also @ The Atlantic (she has the problem that many do with Stewart - that he can basically say whatever he wants and then retreat to "don't take it seriously; it's a comedy show." I have no problem with this - people should be able to distinguish news from entertainment, even when they begin to resemble each other - but I'd be interested in what you guys think)


Yes yes I want to sleep to Jon Stewart. Whatever, I have no responsibility to be objective here. I will, however, quit plugging Comedy Central for a while.

March 12, 2009

A question for the floor.

Is there any information yet on Obama's effect on US popularity abroad, especially in the Middle East?

March 11, 2009

Shameless plug for my favorite entertainer


NASA is holding a contest to name their newest "orbiting laboratory." Stephen Colbert has launched on effort to have it named after him. His name currently leads the write-in votes, but he has to beat the number of votes for NASA-picked names to win. So go to here, click "suggest your own," and write in "Colbert."

Because an orbiting laboratory sounds awesome. And forcing Fox and other news networks to report that "Colbert is launching into space" would be even awesomer.

March 10, 2009

Planet, Public Information in Peril

I am in the early stages of trying to restart the green initiative in my office. That the public, even the intelligent and well-educated, is poorly informed on global warming is not surprising to me. Friday night, however, I found myself at a trivia event organized by one of my coworkers and attended by many. When fewer than one-in-five was able to identify "The three Rs of recycling" (reduce, reuse, recycle) I realized the problem was much more grave than I thought.

I'm going to put together a presentation, and I know I'll be facing an audience that is, generally, skeptical. If you have information that might be helpful, I'd love to have it. I'm thinking of things like Wikipedia saying that there is no longer any scientific body that disputes global warming (although I find their citation of this statement insufficient) or like a report I saw that said something along the lines of "The 2007 IPCC report's claims were so extreme they were considered ignorable; however, all data thus far on the effects of global warming has exceeded the report's projections." Basically - evidence that might not be the most persuasive, but at the very least is nearly indisputable.

I put this post together in many pieces so it might be incoherent but should still be understandable. I know this is a chore but any help you can give is appreciated, and keep in mind that I'll have an audience of about 50, at most 10 of whom go about their lives any differently than they would were global warming not an issue, so in terms of impact, your efforts might be getting more bang for their buck than almost anything else you do.

Oh, and I forgot to mention - the impetus for this post coming right now was this article, which claims that even under best case scenarios, we're down to a coin flip at saving the planet.

March 09, 2009

Doom and Gloom

I always just skip past the big headline on Drudge, so imagine how depressing it was as a read all the headlines I could see below and then, already depressed, scrolled up to see the headline and image ...

March 04, 2009

Prescience bites us in the ass yet again.

"There is nothing I dread so much as a division of the Republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader and converting measures in opposition to each other."
-John Adams (1790)

In other news, I highly recommend the book John Adams by David McCullough.

Advice

On a lighter note, I like thinking about what cabinet meetings are like for Hillary Clinton after this:

Variations on the theme "Limbaugh Hurts the Nation"

I haven't been posting so much so here's one in the old vain.

To say that what Rush Limbaugh has been doing recently is hurting the country is a rather timeless statement. You could have said it in the early 90's (when Limbaugh was still on the junk and in his prime!), or yesterday, or any time in between.

But now it's a little different. As you probably know, Rush and RNC Chair Michael Steele have had a bit of a skirmish (I love that word) in the media recently, and as a result, Steele is just the latest on a long list of Republicans who have had to apologize to Rush (as Jon Stewart put it, the apology is for "determining that Rush's language is incindiary and ugly," also known as "being familiar with Rush's show").

But this isn't good for anyone. It's certainly not good for Republicans. Cliché as it may be, the Republicans as a party are suffering an identity crisis. They clearly need to move to the center, but most of their centrist Congressman were unseated in November. Add Rush to the mix, and you see the party is clearly on track to lose even more seats in 2010 (you might be able to argue that it's too late to turn this fate around) and is severly hurting their chances for a comeback in 2012, with the White House virtually guaranteed for Obama.**

(Update: I want to clarify: if they keep doing what they're doing, they virtually guarantee the White House for Obama. I am making no prediction about the 2012 presidential race.)

None of this should be particularly suprising, but I would like to argue that this is bad for the nation. The reason is that Democrats are already riding a pretty powerful wave of power that, as I said, will probably only strengthen through 2010. So with our foreign affairs in crisis mode and our economy an order of magnitude worse than that, we've already basically guaranteed that Democrats will retain the White House and both house of Congress through the 2012 elections, meaning Republicans won't have a chance until 2014.

And look: if you have any doubts about how much power the Democrats have right now, just imagine what you'd think and how you'd feel if a newly elected Republican Congress was passing legislation of John McCain's that was of the same magnitude - but a very different direction - than what Obama and the Democrats are doing. And then it becomes clear that, in times like these, weakening the standing of the opposition party is just bad for America.

But then again, Rush has been a specialist in "Bad for America" for quite some time.

March 03, 2009

Bush Supporters Now Wrong About Everything

I don't use large type, save for special occasions.

"First Amendment
speech and press rights
may also be subordinated
to the overriding need
to wage war successfully."
-Office of Legal Counsel, October 23, 2001

Maybe I'm the only fan of both Conan O'Brien and Hunter S. Thompson...

...they're a pretty odd pair. Which is what makes this video, of Conan's visit to Thompson's "compound" (really) to "drink and shoot things," so funny.

For the record, I think the writing on Conan's show - like most late-night shows - was pretty corny and awful, and probably will continue to be. But Conan himself has a really funny personality, which is why his "in the field" segments are his best material. I also really like:

Conan in Finland,

Conan in Ireland, part 1 and part 2,

and Conan plays old-timey baseball

March 01, 2009

Rush Limbaugh you douchebag, part 1 of what I'm sure will be many

From HuffPo: Rush Limbaugh: Of Course I Want Obama to Fail

get ready for such gems as:

"Did the Democrats want the war of Iraq to fail? They certainly did.... They hoped George Bush failed..." [I don't know about you, but I desperately wanted Bush to STOP failing every step of the way]

and

"We are talking about the United States of America... remaining the country we were all born into and reared and grown into. And it is under assault, it has always been under assault. But it has never been under assault like this, from within [by the Democrats]...so what's so wrong with saying I want President Obama to fail?" [um...I guess we can start with hypocrisy...]

UPDATE:

Just read this infuriating Rush quote in Sarah Vowell's Radio On:

"There is no such thing as global warming, ladies and gentlemen...You can trust me, or you can agonize. It's simpler to trust me." [global warming aside that last sentence makes my blood boil [no pun intended].]

Don't worry, no more updates - I realize this could become The Post That Never Ends, because Rush has several hours every day on the radio to say things I hate. I do invite you to share your favorite Rush-isms, though.

Jason Bourne is female

Crazy story in the Times about a young woman with dissociative fugue - what Jason Bourne was supposed to have - who just "walked out of her life" one day. She wandered around for 3 weeks with no ID, phone, or money...

“It’s as if a whole set of information about one’s self, our autobiography, goes off line...”

February 26, 2009

Michael Phelps will be psyched.

The Obama administration has so far shown a willingness to, in many ways, seek out and subsequently ignore controversy, whether the controversy is legitimate or contrived. This willingness has taken many forms, ranging from a nearly $1T stimulus bill to a declaration that the deficit will be halved within the next four year, from the appointment of Judd Gregg to the declared but un-planned closure of Guantanamo. In some cases Obama has argued his case pretty well (think Guantanamo) whether or not he was arguing the correct point; in others he has demonstrated a brashness and confidence unexpected by many observers despite being on the wrong side of the argument (think Judd Gregg). It seems as if Obama has chosen to make the most of the impossible situation he faces by attempting to handle not only the immediate crises (e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan, and the credit market), but also many less-pressing issues that other presidents would have left for later (e.g. the elimination of the Global Gag Rule, the institution of limits on congressional pay, and the recommendation of increased fuel efficiency standards). Obama has thus used the cover of “the worst recession since the Great Depression” to slide through some policies that would have brought down hellfire on the White House during past administrations. (This argument is related to Chris’ point that the stimulus was passed in a manner similar to the Patriot Act.)

It seems as though Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder have decided to open another front in the Obama administration’s backdoor war on outdated, inappropriate, and absurdly expensive policies: Holder declared that federal agents will no longer raid marijuana clubs in states that have passed legislation legalizing medical use of marijuana. [On an embarrassing note: without “The first black […]” leading his name I almost feel as if Holder’s title is missing something.]



Chalk one up for states’ rights. While this is far from legalization of marijuana federally it represents a significant deviation from past policies, and I can only hope that this indicates a shift in focus in the War on Drugs. As the above chart from 538 illustrates, public opinion is slowly moving in favor of the legalization of marijuana (both from the support and opposition sides), a trend I interpret (while hindered in no way by data or fact) to mean that the public as a whole is gradually coming to understand the differences between marijuana, which can lead to mental addictions, and more serious drugs that form both mental and physical addictions and lead to very serious health and general welfare problems (read: crime). As Nate Silver points out, though, it seems likely that, “[…] we'll see other some other once-unthinkable things like legalized gay marriage [before we see legalized marijuana].”

I guess my main point is that the War on Drugs needs to be refocused in two major ways. First of all, the government should exert different efforts for the control of different drugs, with the distribution of funding and resources determined by an honest assessment of the impact of each drug on individuals and the country as a whole. Stated another way, marijuana related arrests should not account for nearly half of all drug arrests (see table below) in a country in which 97 million people have ‘admitted’ to having tried pot.


Source.

The other major change I support is less likely to be implemented, but who knows what this crazy Obama administration will do next? That change is a shift from a supply-side focus to a demand-side focus. Let’s try a mental experiment: imagine if the DEA made a bust in which it confiscated 80% of the heroin in the USA overnight. The next day, as junkies head to the corners, what will happen? Will the ‘drought’ lead users to rehabilitate, to realize the dangers of being a drug addict, to avoid crime and seek out Christ? Or will price go through the roof, likely leading to more drug-related crime as users attempt to scrounge up the necessary cash to buy some of the tiny supply? I think the latter is significantly more likely.

It is certainly easier to publicly justify supply-side programs to limit drug use: the publicity of drug busts; the visibility of border patrol agents; the high recidivism rates of addiction treatment programs; etc. Simply because a course of action is easier and less controversial, though, does not mean it is the best choice. I believe that if the United States wants to seriously attempt to combat the use of dangerous drugs it needs to rethink its classification system and the mechanisms by which it combats drug purchases.

There are a number of potential problems here, I admit. First, assuming demand for a drug falls, prices will fall. When prices fall the suppliers have less incentive to be there (less profit per unit sold), but the users have a greater incentive to use (more units of drug per dollar spent). I think these effects would interact differently based on the drug in question and the level of addiction it creates. Second, drug treatment programs are expensive. I would argue that some of this cost would be offset by the lowered costs associated with the reclassification of some drugs (e.g. if marijuana were not a drug for which one could be jailed, the country would no longer have to pay to jail those arrested with marijuana, or may not even have to arrest those people at all). Again, the net effect is ambiguous in this hypothetical world I have imagined. Lastly, and I am sure I am missing arguments for both sides, opponents of these reforms may argue that by enforcing treatment programs rather than jail time the country is choosing to give criminals a second chance at the expense of those who may have never committed a crime. I imagine an opponent thinking, “Why is that criminal allowed to walk near my child? Why do I pay for his wrong decisions with my fear over my own property and safety?” I have no rebuttal for this except for my own belief that even the best of men can fall prey to addiction and that each and every person who does deserves at least a second chance, if not more.

I hope to one day live in a country in which one mistake on the order of taking a drug does not ruin one’s life permanently. If he feels compelled to continue sneaking legislation through based on false pretenses, let’s hope Obama chooses some of the right legislation to sneak through. I apologize for the length of this ramble. I hope it received at least one drug-addled, "Hooray!" from the crowd.

We're in trouble

This is from an AP article

"The cost of the stimulus bill and the increased bailout support would push the deficit for this year to $1.75 trillion, nearly four times last year's record $455 billion and a percentage of the economy — just over 12 percent — not seen since World War II. The deficit would remain near $1 trillion over the next two years before dropping to $581 billion in 2012 and $533 billion in 2013, the year that Obama has pledged to cut the deficit he inherited in half.
"However, to meet that goal, the administration's budget depends on optimistic projections that the economy, currently in the longest recession in a quarter-century, will come roaring back with economic growth of 3.2 percent next year and 4 percent-plus rates in the following three years, significantly higher than private economists are forecasting."

If it is true that Obama is banking on that kind of growth we are in deep trouble. I would be interested to see an analysis of what 10 years of trillion dollar deficits is going to do to our economy.

February 25, 2009

LOL

Have I linked to LOLbama before? Maybe. If so, feel free to delete this post. Anyway, a couple of my friends make it, and it's full of stuff like this that makes me laugh:


worth a visit

February 24, 2009

Bartleby


As I was composing an email to Carly I had to pause to look up the difference between instinctive and instinctual. As it turns out, "These are synonyms, both meaning 'caused by or characterized by instinct,' but instinctive is much more often employed; instinctual is rare, except in Britain." This definition is taken from The Columbia Guide to Standard American English.

I enjoyed that explanation for its clarity and conciseness, so I explored Bartleby.com, the website on which I found it. Bartleby is a website that hosts online copies of books. Their reference section seems pretty useful. Also, the books are posted in what appears to be HTML, meaning they could easily be copied [by some obviously nefarious character] into a format readable by certain digital reading devices; I'm not encouraging it, just noting it.

Confirmation!

Ron Howard confirmed that work on the Arrested Development movie has begun! Mitchell Hurwitz is writing the script right now. And Jeffrey Tambor has his own solution to the 'Michael Cera is being an ass' problem: "If I have to call him up and say, 'Get on set right now, young man,' he'll be there, the movie is going to happen this year, and Michael Cera is on board. Trust me." I hope Tambor has to hit Cera at least once for his insolence and arrogance.

I kind of want to have a ridiculous celebration party when this comes out. Anyone in?

February 23, 2009

Approval Ratings

A website called PoliticsHome selected "informed Americans" to participate in a series of polls. I don't remember exactly how I got involved, but it definitely involved reading electoral websites a lot.

Anyway, most of their polls have been unremarkable, but here's an interesting one: approval ratings for many notable political figures.

At least I get to enjoy The Dark Knight.

February 22, 2009

Shut UP

Shut UP, Rush Limbaugh (This remark came in the context of trying to understand the motives of Democrats who have disdain for America...),

Shut UP, Richard Shelby ("Well his father was Kenyan and they said he was born in Hawaii, but I haven't seen any birth certificate..."),

Shut UP, Ann Coulter ("I like men, i.e. conservatives...").


No more HuffPost for me today.

Morality and pragmatism in abortion and gay marraige debates

This Times piece sort of states the obvious - that the best way to prevent abortion and keep those from all sides of the political spectrum happy is to prevent unwanted pregnancy - but it's well put, and touches on the same type of pragmatism in gay marriage issues.

Bits I found important/interesting:

"Mr. Obama, like many other pro-choicers, doesn’t like to preach on these issues. He talks about family planning purely in terms of access and affordability. Overseas, that’s a huge challenge. But in this country, the principal cause of abortions isn’t that we can’t get birth control. It’s that we don’t use it...This isn’t a shortage of pills or condoms. It’s a shortage of cultural and personal responsibility. It’s a failure to teach, understand, admit or care that unprotected sex can lead to the creation — and the subsequent killing, through abortion — of a developing human being...Birth control isn’t a sin or an offense against life, as so many girls and Catholic couples have been taught. It’s a loving, conscientious way to prevent the conception of a child you can’t bear to raise and don’t want to abort. It’s an act of responsibility and respect for life."

February 20, 2009

Dreams do come true!



This may not mean anything to anyone else, but I was pretty exiting to read in today's Times about a rescue mission to lead lost whooping cranes home (above). Why? Because it's a real-life version of one of my favorite (crappy) childhood films, Fly Away Home, in which Jeff Daniels flies a bunch of geese South for the winter. My ten-year-old self is VERY excited.



Alex Ovechkin at it again

Our-age phenom Alexander Ovechkin is quickly becoming the NHL's most exciting player.

If you're Bart, you'll remember this stunning goal.  If you're not, watch it:
(It shouldn't be ignored either that he scores against the team coached by Wayne Gretzky)




Anyway, he's at it again with this jaw-dropper from the other night.  The way he steals it is just as awesome as the goal itself, which he scores by shooting it to the goalie's right, his left. (Oh, and the defenseman that he makes look silly is no pushover, he's former #1 draft pick and 3-time all-star Roman Hamrlik)



And in honor of these two goals, ESPN's "Top 10 NHL goals while falling":

February 19, 2009

what Nate's up to

predicting less important things, like the oscars, for new york magazine:

Oscar Predictions You Can Bet On!

February 18, 2009

High Speed Rail ... Fail

Maybe I'm just dense, but let's look at this map of high-speed rail tracks designated under the stimulus:



So, you can get from Kansas City to Cincinnati (through StL) and from Pittsburgh to Montreal (through NYC), but since there's no Cincy-Pitt connection, you couldn't get between those two networks?

Would it have been that hard to connect Tulsa and KC? Orlando and Jacksonville? Houston to Austin?

OK, I've decided. I'm missing something really obvious and I'm going to feel really stupid when you tell me what it is. Maybe HSR isn't for long-distance travel? I don't see why not, but Missourians aren't experts on mass transit ...

Story

February 17, 2009

This is sacrilege.

The Simpsons has a new opening sequence for the first time since 1989. Largely the changes made do not affect the order of the elements of the old introduction (e.g. Bart writes on a chalkboard, Lisa plays a sax solo, and Homer endangers his life in the family's driveway), but rather serve as a yearbook of characters and gags that have been created since the opening was last updated. Overall the changes make this feel like a bad clip show...come to think of it, that is redundant, so let's just call it a clip show.

Interesting Wiki Page

In doing the complete opposite of what Bart and I are trying to do (namely, reduce our number of posts linking to a small number of articles) here is a Wikipedia page I found particularly interesting. Some of the pages on the list seem really random to me, such as RuneScape in the top 10 (I had to look at the article to learn what it is).

Pages with the most revisions - Wikipedia

I've solved the controversy!

Bill Clinton was the first Joaquin Phoenix president.  All other labels are unnecessary.

February 16, 2009

Damn You, Economy

I just got the word: no carbon offset purchases for my office this year. With my term as green czar ending in May, I was hoping to be able to push through this historic legislation.

PS - I'm having a lot of trouble believing/verifying some of the claims made in that article Bart posted about Todd Palin's snowmachine racing. If anyone has an info, let me know.

Dreams From My Campaign

God I'm tired of this crap. I was hoping for some change. Maybe next time we could get this guy to run for president:


February 15, 2009

"Do We Need a New Internet?"

Not quite sure what to say about this, mostly because I know nothing about internet security. I don't like the idea of trading privacy for safety (in any context), but maybe I should be more worried about security in this case...?

February 14, 2009

Free online backup program

Once I find a new job I plan on buying a new computer shortly thereafter, allowing me to convert my current computer into my backup external hard drive. Until that time I am stuck debating about how to best back up my information without spending a bunch of money. A few days ago I found a program named Dropbox that offers 2GB of free online storage and syncs your information automatically. I currently have Dropbox syncing my pictures, documents, and desktop and still have quite a large percentage of my space remaining. Oh, and Dropbox syncs across different platforms and multiple computers. Also, you can access it via the online interface if you are on an unlinked computer.

There are a two major drawbacks:
  1. Space- 2GB really is not that much space. For $100 per year you can have 50GB, but I think if I were paying that much I would expect significantly more storage space and would end up looking for a different program.
  2. Currently the program only backs up files that you actually move to the Dropbox folder on your hard drive. There was no way in hell I was rearranging my file structure for this so I looked for a workaround. What I found is that by using symbolic links you can trick Dropbox into syncing other folders and files. The Dropbox Wiki has a writeup of how to sync folders and files outside of the Dropbox folder using symbolic links. Mac users should check out the section "OS X Specific: Automator," which provides a very simple way of doing this. If you are on a PC I wish you luck in your efforts to make this happen.

Happy V-Day!

I don't really mind not having a boyfriend on Valentine's Day, but I do miss making a "mailbox" out of a shoebox and doilies for the class party.

These are my Valentines to you guys:









Ew ick

No reason to post this other than the ick factor.

A Dad at 13!

February 13, 2009

Horny Manatee, a new venture for NBC

In December 2006 NBC purchased the rights to the domain name HornyManatee.com. Seriously. Conan O'Brien made up the name during a skit on his show, and NBC decided to purchase the domain name to avoid being associated with content of which the network did not approve. So they posted this content instead. Take the tour. I cannot believe how many categories were created. Enjoy.

A quicker set of links

Sorry for all the posts that I have been making that are not much more than lists of links. I will work on cutting back, and not just by making fewer posts with more links. That will start right after I give you a few links:

February 12, 2009

Gross.

I hate Nadya Suleman for her pathetic reasons for having children, her misuse of medical treatments designed to help those with actual medical difficulties, and her complete disregard for the impact her decisions have on others. Now added to the list is the way her stomach looks.

Damn you, disturbingly good anti-abortion ad!

Don't worry, I'm not converting. I just admire the ingenuity of the marketing.



Oh, yeah, and it's totally an unfair use of his image.

... and More Articles!

Hey, if you're going to steal from Bart, why stop at just one?

*********************************************

"Dr. Doom," famously pessimistic NYU economics Professor Nouriel Roubini, argues that the best solution for resolving the toxic asset problem is (temporary) nationalization. Without it, he argues other options result in one of three problems:

If government takes on debt:
1. Overvaluing assets ---> Massive cost to taxpayers
2. Undervaluing assets ---> Risks massive bank failures
If government helps private sector keep debt:
3. Non-transparency and/or overcomplication (see Tax Code, the)

*********************************************

In a rather odd article, scientists have discovered a bacterium in the Russian mammoth graveyard that may extend the duration of human lives in general, as well as the duration of their sex lives.

*********************************************

I only read a little bit of this article, but it seems there's been something of a real-life Catch Me If You Can, with a woman taking on fake lives at Ivy League schools as part of her rouse.

Articles!

A quick article dump to start the day’s blogging activities.

”Sarah Palin's $159,050 Conflict of Interest” - Todd Palin is currently racing a “snow machine” 1,971 miles across Alaska, during which his “Arctic Cat's powerful two-stroke engine will emit the same amount of hydrocarbons as an automobile driving from Chicago to San Francisco and back 150 times.” Fantastic. And it only gets trashier and more polluting. First, the pollution: “[During the race] Todd Palin will release as many cancer-causing and smog-forming pollutants as a Chevy Malibu driven around the Earth at its equator 28 times.” Now, the conflict of interest: the race is sponsored by “[…] the petroleum giants Tesoro and Conoco-Phillips; State Farm, Wells Fargo, Frontier Airlines, Alaska Airlines and the Alaska First National Bank.” You may be saying, “But you are not being fair. Maybe the Palins do not get a shady benefit from this.” Well, Todd is an annual competitor (seemingly surprising for a race with a field of 40 people willing to do this kind of evil to the environment) who has only one four times. “Once after Sarah was elected to the Wasilla City Council, once after she was elected mayor, the year she was appointed to the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission, and the year she was elected governor.” Okay, okay, maybe I jumped the gun. Sorry for trying to shame such an upstanding family.

“Video Games Are Good For Children – EU Report” - Nothing too surprising here, but it is nice to have confirmation of something I believe: An EU panel determined that "’video games can stimulate learning of facts and skills such as strategic thinking, creativity, cooperation and innovative thinking, which are important skills in the information society.’" Yay! An excuse to play more video games!

Unemployment as stimulus -
“A Novel Approach: Using Unemployment Benefits as a Means for Stimulus” – An interesting plan to maximize the benefits created by unemployment payments: instead of paying out cash to an unemployed person for a set amount of time provide that person with a voucher that subsidizes them as an employee. For example, assume Mr. Doe is unemployed and receives $200 each week in unemployment payments ant that were anyone to hire Mr. Doe it would cost that firm $500 each week, a (made-up) prohibitive amount. The likely outcome here is that he remains unemployed. But if Mr. Doe can suddenly walk into an interview and say, “Instead of costing you $500 each week I will only cost you $300 each week and the money that would have been my unemployment check is now paying the other $200 of the salary.” Obviously this has limitations (e.g. what happens when Mr. Doe’s salary is no longer subsidized?), but in the short term this plan creates a greater overall income, implying a greater overall level of consumption, for the same government investment. At the same time it increases the overall production level of the economy.

“Big Satellites Collide 500 Miles Over Siberia” – This story seems pretty ridiculous at first, though it does highlight the very real concern of the volume of junk orbiting Earth. Apparently a non-functional Russian satellite launched in 1993 and described as “[…] out of control” crashed into a commercial satellite launched in 1997, creating thousands of particles that will now orbit Earth waiting to smash into other man-made satellites. I can’t help but think of this as a case of modern space zombies in which each zombie (read: smashed satellite) spends the rest of its time trying to create more zombies (read: smash other satellites). For perspective on the dangers we are facing from orbiting junk only fifty-two years into man’s era of sending crap into space: “[…] orbital debris is now the biggest threat to a space shuttle in flight, surpassing the dangers of liftoff and return to Earth.” I will now officially swear off space flight until we have orbiting Roombas keeping me safe.

“Letting Scientists Off the Leash” - This is an interesting article written by a researcher at Stanford University who discusses the flaws in the way money for research is distributed. His main point is that the typically conservative review boards that approve funding for grant proposals do not fund very imaginative or risky research. This leads to a situation where most of the ideas we are pursuing are those that we are already sure we can turn into a profit, not those that could have a substantially larger impact but at the same time carry larger risks (in that they are more likely than the boring projects to have an outcome different from that discussed when the grant was proposed). I don’t know too much about this, but I do support the idea of devising a more efficient means of identifying and funding riskier and more creative research.

Maybe the funniest Letterman interview I have ever seen.

For those of you who aren't following the story, Joaquin Phoenix recently announced his retirement from acting and the beginning of his new career: rapping! (It's real footage, but the audio is crappy.) At first I was surprised to hear this, but then I saw Joaquin on Letterman and suddenly understood it all. Joaquin must be on a drug, as he acts crazily enough that Letterman ends the interview by saying, "Well, Joaquin, it's too bad you couldn't be here tonight."

February 11, 2009

Modeling

I'm not naive about the relationship between the way someone looks in reality and the way they look on a magazine cover, but I found this to be astonishing ...

Possibly my favorite SI Swimsuit cover ever
I feel like I once borrowed a calculator from this chick at summer camp

Bar Refaeli - Wikipedia

February 10, 2009

February 09, 2009

You Can't Buy Class.

When photographs showing Michael Phelps smoking pot came out, he handled the situation rather maturely. After his fairly reasonable attempts at disappearing the pictures failed (if I remember correctly he offered to write articles for the paper if they agreed to not publish), Phelps immediately admitted the legitimacy of the pictures and apologized for "[...] behavior which was regrettable and demonstrated bad judgment." Phelps did not attempt to change public opinion on marijuana laws, or to gain special treatment by qualifying his actions; rather, Phelps said, "I'm 23 years old and despite the successes I've had in the pool, I acted in a youthful and inappropriate way, not in a manner people have come to expect from me. [...] For this, I am sorry. I promise my fans and the public it will not happen again." I disagree with the furor over Phelps' slip-up, but I do not think this situation could have been handled in a more professional manner. Phelps even went on to say that his suspension of three months was fair and warranted. Class act all around.

I can finally get to my point: a 23 year-old swimmer should not be acting more maturely and with more grace than, I don't know, maybe a Super Bowl-winning receiver or a Gold-Glove winning infielder. This isn't to say that Phelps should lower his standards, but that Plaxico and A-Roid show raise theirs.

Plaxico is not only a jerk who shot himself in the leg in a nightclub because he was holding a gun in the waistband of a pair of sweatpants, but also a person who doesn't pay any bills on time. Seriously. He has been sued at least nine times for unpaid debts since he entered the NFL in 2000. That is an average of once a year if we are generous and include 2009. Once he even paid a debt (only after a court ruling) with a check that bounced! This guy is less than two years into a five-year, $27.25 million contract, which tells me he is just being a dick for no reason. If shooting himself in the leg doesn't change his attitude, I doubt he will ever come to the point where he can be respected in the way that Phelps was and should be again.

My other example is one that is near and dear to my heart, Mr. Alex Rodriguez! I had my own reasons for hating the guy, so I was quite happy when the Red Sox 'lost' the chase for Rodriguez and the Yankees signed him to a record-breaking contract. [My hatred stemmed from both interviews watched on TV and a game I attended where A-Rod, after turning an inning-ending double play while playing for the Rangers, pretended to throw the ball to the crowd, laughed, and then took the ball into the dugout. Dick.] Now that he has finally admitted to using illegal performance enhancing drugs I can relax knowing that if he goes down as one of the best players ever it will be with a giant asterisk next to all of his statistics. I can only hope that the asterisk is composed of three syringes...a guy can dream, can't he?

A much fun as it is to watch sports stars run their names into the ground I truly hope that rookies everywhere are forced to take notes on Phelps' handling of the controversy surrounding his pot smoking. As always, money cannot buy class or grace under pressure, as Michael Vick, A-Rod, and Burress can all tell you.

Coldplay steal the show...and a song.

Long story short, Coldplay seems to have written the song "Viva la Vida" by simply copying the Joe Satriani song "If I Could Fly." Originally Joe Satriani planned to serve Coldplay with a copyright infringement lawsuit at the Grammys by hiring a bunch of servers to scour the venue. In the end, Satriani's lawyer was contacted by a lawyer representing the band who said he would accept the papers without the drama of a Grammy-night hunt for the band.

Here's a YouTube video that plays relevant sections of both Coldplay's "Viva la Vida" and Joe Satriani's "If I Could Fly." Satriani's song is from his 2004 album Is There Love In Space?, while Coldplay's is from their 2008 album Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends.

For reference: the complete Coldplay song; the complete Satriani song.

For those of you interested in the music theory behind this claim here are two videos in which a guy from Creative Guitar Studios in California analyzes the theoretical similarities between the two songs. Video 1. Video 2.

Satriani is suing for any and all profits related to the copyright infringement, and considering the popularity of "Viva la Vida" he stands to gain quite nicely from this (especially when one considers the bump in name recognition for Satriani).

Prelude to: Clinton cheats on spouse in Oval Office, 21st century edition?

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/att00000lg2.gif

February 06, 2009

Buy Ya Own Damn Fries! (Updated)

The only thing that could have won John McCain the presidency.

(Story)
(Story - Better Link)

Other great soundbytes:
That guy
Complicated
Sure, baby
High school chicks, University chicks - it don't matter!

My personal favorite, which I hope was what he said to George W. Bush at 12:01 PM on 1/20.
And then there's you

SAT Time!

Bush : PATRIOT Act :: Obama : Stimulus Bill

I'm becoming more and more convinced that external circumstances allowed both men to pass measures reflective of the more extreme side of their ideology under blankets of fear and urgency, bills that would have had no chance of passing in more normal times.

I'm not saying everyone's gonna be with me on this one, but I've decided that's my view.

February 05, 2009

FYI- The President wrote an article

That's right, we have confirmation that not only can Barack Obama speak, he can also write, an ability that is as yet unconfirmed in our previous commander-in-chief.

Bart's Morning Thoughts (None of them stolen from other posts!)

Walgreens
Gains in efficiency are always impressive, but not this impressive. Walgreens has created a warehouse that is twenty percent more efficient than any of its other plants. Their secret? Disabilities. The warehouse is designed to use the disabilities of workers for gain. For example, a lot of their IT work is done by those with Asperger syndrome because many with the disease become fascinated by technology and can understand it very well. Walgreens was inspired by one of its executives who feared the permanent dependence of his son on caretakers. Now it seems as if the son may be able to not only find work but to excel in it. I hope to see this scaled up soon, because this seems to be the employment equivalent of price discrimination: get the most benefit (read: production) out of each and every person by considering their individual circumstances, desires, and needs. Bravo, Walgreens.

Pakistan
To bring you down from the high provided by that new-age feel-goodery Walgreens I bring you “The Gunmarkets of Pakistan.” (So far as I can tell the guys who made the video consider gunmarkets to be an actual word. Whatever.) The host of the video had his Pakistani mother make a few phone calls to her friends, who were able to arrange for the host to enter the most dangerous regions of Pakistan to buy weapons. The video catalogues the trip to visit the weapons producers of the region (read: villagers making Kalashnikovs by hand).

Dr. Death

Let’s finish off with a slightly less depressing story: Dr. Death has been found, but he is already dead. After escaping Germany in the 1960s (yes, the 1960s, not the 1940s) Dr. Aribert Heim was able to make it to Cairo, where he lived out his life under an adopted name and converted to Islam (Assumedly he converted from Nazism?). The NYT found this out by recovering a briefcase full of Heim’s personal documents and correspondence. It seems this may herald the end of Nazi-hunting, as the Simon Wiesenthal Center considered Heim to be their top target and was about to up the reward for Heim’s capture to $1.3M. It kind of creeps me out when Dr. Death is referred to fondly as “Uncle Tarek.” Let me know if it does the same for you.

Morning Thoughts

I strongly disagree with the President's decision to cap executive pay at $500K for (some) bailout recipients. I certainly think he has the right - you want our money, we make the rules - but I think something like $5 million would have been fine. Like it or not, some of these "executives" are not actually spawn of Satan and some of them are very talented. Why would they work for $500K if they could get $10M elsewhere? Especially if they, say, have taken out a mortgage based on future expectations of salary. And I'll just say it - if you're a powerful, wealthy person living in New York City, $500K is not a lot of money.

So, it's clearly written from the perspective of a whiner, but this article about Obama capping total compensation at $500K when his total compensation is quite a bit higher was actually worth reading.

Glenn Beck is willing to go all-in on Obama being a Communist. The last 15 seconds are classic.

Tim Geithner did know he owed the other half of the Social Security and Medicare taxes (if you don't know, US employers pay half of these taxes and you pay the other half. Americans working for int'l organizations are still on the hook for the whole thing even though their employer won't pay it. Geither claims that missing this was the mistake in question). How do we know he knew? He applied - and received - reimbursement for the taxes from the IMF. He later acknowledged a failure to pay the taxes, but didn't actually pay them until his nomination was dicussed. It's all right here in this brochure. (For the record, I don't put a lot into the "rough estimate of $600B" that the article mentions.)

PS - As I was labeling this post, it just made me realize - I want to make it clear that I know I've switched from using "bailout" to using "stimulus", even though the media's switch was arbitrary/socialist.

PPS - I know I've been a little overboard about this recently, but I stand by my "incorrect" ordering of quotation marks and commas above. I used to refer to the "Government Bailout" but I've never referred to the "Stimulus, Package" so I see no reason to put the comma inside the quotation mark.

PPPS - In the first paragraph I said $500K isn't a lot of money for wealthy, powerful New Yorkers. But it's really not a whole lot of money for anyone. Think of it this way, New Yorkers - the proportion of my income that goes to rent is 5.5% before taxes and 7.4% after taxes. Divide your rent by those numbers to see what your income would be if your rent was the same as it is now but it only took the same amount of your income as mine does. My figures do not include utilities.

February 04, 2009

Tax troubles

This makes me feel as if I should join in on the tax-avoiding fun!

Where is the Stimulus Money Going?

I wanted to know, and Obama's only competition for God-on-Earth (Wikipedia) came to the rescue.

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

Election 2008 Analysis

Ok, so I finally got around to analyzing my election predictions. Here's a table.

I correctly predicted the outcome of 50 of the 51 states, missing Indiana.

StateEVPollProjWinΔpΔaError
DC30.45

66.8285.9219.1
VT31.17

28.1337.018.9
DE33.02

27.9225.00-2.9
NY314.38

27.7426.69-1.1
MD100.73

25.8025.44-0.4
HI40.66

22.6445.2622.6
CA556.64

22.6024.061.5
IL214.14

22.1525.133.0
CT71.92

20.1622.372.2
RI40.76

19.8327.928.1
MA124.16

17.7725.818.0
OR79.62

15.7416.350.6
ME45.87

15.5217.321.8
WA117.03

15.3617.181.8
IA79.67

15.289.53-5.8
NJ159.48

14.1215.571.5
MI179.43

13.8916.472.6
WI1010.78

13.2413.900.7
MN1013.62

9.9110.240.3
NH413.00

9.779.61-0.2
NM57.14

9.4915.135.6
PA2127.15

8.0610.352.3
CO914.57

6.428.952.5
VA1321.06

6.066.300.2
NV513.12

5.7912.496.7
OH2028.72

2.894.541.6
FL2729.05

2.032.820.8
NC1527.25

1.040.33-0.7
MO1124.40

0.23-0.13-0.4
IN1116.09

-0.511.031.5
ND32.67

-2.67-8.63-6.0
GA1515.07

-3.23-5.21-2.0
AZ107.31

-3.61-8.52-4.9
MT35.28

-4.29-2.262.0
SC84.60

-8.64-8.98-0.3
SD32.88

-9.13-8.410.7
AR63.06

-9.29-19.85-10.6
MS63.53

-9.43-13.17-3.7
LA92.26

-10.04-18.63-8.6
WV56.24

-10.60-13.12-2.5
TX342.53

-11.01-11.77-0.8
TN112.31

-12.60-15.07-2.5
AK35.71

-13.62-21.54-7.9
KY88.52

-14.04-16.23-2.2
KS64.03

-16.97-14.962.0
NE50.78

-19.05-14.934.1
AL93.42

-23.08-21.581.5
ID40.71

-23.49-25.43-1.9
UT51.76

-24.63-28.18-3.6
WY33.38

-26.34-32.24-5.9
OK74.25

-26.62-31.29-4.7

Unless otherwise noted, I am omitting DC and HI from my analysis. These states were not only significant leverage points as indicated by severe values of the Cook's D statistic, but also represented significant outliers based on their studentized residuals. Because of this and the dismal amount of polling in both states, I have omitted them. (This, by the way, is how statisticians say "these data really screwed up my model so I took 'em out.")

I missed statewise margin of victory by {3.1 average, 2.2 median}. I was closest to correctly guessing the outcome in New Hampshire (which is just dumb luck; that state was crazy!). I predicted 54.5-44.7; the outcome was 54.1-44.5, a net error of 0.16 points. I was farthest from correctly guessing the outcome in Arkansas (damn PUMAs!) - I predicted a 9.3 pt McCain victory; he won the state by 19.9 pts, an error of 10.56 points.

The regression model treated me nicely.

The first plot shows my prediction line (red) and where each state actually fell (blue).
The second plot shows my prediction (x-axis) with my prediction error (y-axis).
Highlighting +/- 4.00 was arbitrary.



My
regression intercept has a p-value of 0.484, indicating there is absolutely no evidence that my average prediction varied significantly from the average actual outcome.

The model in total has a p-value of 0.000000000000000000000000000000000224, which besides being an awesomely small number, also indicates the probability of beating my model by chance alone.

On the down side, the regression model coefficient of 1.124 had a 95% CI of {1.057, 1.192}. Because 1.000 is not in this interval, this indictates that my model significantly underpredicted the average differential in each state (for either candidate; in other words, I gave Obama too much credit in red states and McCain too much credit in blue states, etc.).

Finally, my model scored an r-square value of 0.960. In other words, if each state's outcome was determined by the results of 100 coin flips, having my model in hand would be analogous to already knowing the outcome of 96 of the flips. Or to use another analogy, it would be like predicting the rankings of teams in baseball standings for a 162-game season while already knowing how the first 156 games turn out.

And just for curiosity's sake, I was joking about being unjustified in removing HI and DC. While it's true I missed them both by large margins (especially HI), it's clear in the picture below why DC (off to the right) is overly influential in determining the line of best fit. (HI is the point at 23, 45).



Had I included the two states, r-squared drops from 0.960 to 0.956 and significance actually decreases (that's good) from 2E-34 to 8E-35.

So that's all I've got. I won't do anything for the Senate, but it looks as though I will be wrong about Coleman winning Minnesota (I can't believe that is still not settled. I don't feel bad about missing it, and to my credit I did predict that it would be the last race decided.)

Finally, I got the absolute percentages for Obama and McCain wrong - I said it would be 53.1-45.9; instead it was 52.9-45.7. But notice that I overshot both numbers (I just took the fact that Kerry and Bush added up to 99.0% and applied the same assumption to Obama and McCain). In terms of share of the 2-party vote, it broke down like this:

Prediction - 53.64 to 46.36
Actual - 53.68 to 46.32

Adding up the two errors, I missed the national vote share by less than one-tenth of one percentage point (0.08%). I'll take it.

Champion of Swimming Games Ignored by SEC

Sorry for the terrible joke, but some dude named Markopolos has been trying to warn the SEC about some $50B fraud for like a decade.

Missouri Reddening?

Robin Carnahan has announced she will run for the Senate seat Kit Bond will be vacating in 2010. A victory would make her Missouri's second-most-attractive senator, behind Cruella Deville.

Missouri is reddening faster than almost any other state. WTF is going on here? In 2004 the Democratic governor was so weak he couldn't even win the primary, ousted by Claire McCaskill. McCaskill, though, still couldn't win the general election.

Two years later Missouri elected McCaskill to the Senate, and two years after that they put a Democrat back in the governor's mansion. With Nate Silver ranking Missouri as the senate seat most likely to flip in 2010, the state could go from 2 Republican senators and a Republican governor just before the 2006 election to having all those seats filled by Democrats after the 2010 election.

That said, President Obama should not focus too much energy on Missouri in his 2012 reelection campaign.

Woman deems absurdly large breasts "not racist enough"

OK, so that's not true, but you've got to read this article.

February 02, 2009

Conservapedia Nuance

It's clear "the trustworthy encyclopedia" is raising the level of debate when it comes to Commerce Secretary-nominee Judd Gregg.

There's no link to this directly but for a few days it should be on the main page: of the Republican whose departure from the Senate could give the Democrats the overblown total of 60 senators, the encyclopedia asks: "Benedict Arnold or Judas?"

(Actually, they had an extra comma in the question. Also, this is one of the few instances when I do agree with the standard rule on quotation mark/punctuation mark ordering)

Fish and Fishes

I recently found myself in yet another debate over the usage of "fish" vs. "fishes" and other similar issues.

Unless I'm mistaken, I'm rather sure that "fish" just refers to more than one fish whereas "fishes" refers to more than one type of fish.

Anyway, I figure that sort of thing has to have a name but I couldn't find one. Anybody got any ideas? In the process I came across interesting words Ichthyology and Isogloss.

Final thought: does the same rule apply to "persons" and "people"?

Punxsutawney Phil: Groundhog Data

How reliable are Phil's predictions?

After a too-long internet search, the best historical weather data I was able to find (I'm happy to do something else if you can find better data) was monthly average temperatures for Portland, OR from 1941 on. Since Phil predicts "early spring" or "six more weeks of winter," I gave February a weight of 4 and March a weight of 2 (number of weeks of those six weeks) and took the average. Not the best method of course, but the best I have available. There were no predictions for 1941 and 1942 and no weather data for 2007 and 2008, so I had 63 data points.

Phil predicts more winter:
Number of times - 53
Mean temperature - 44.38
Variance - 4.94

Phil predicts early spring:
Number of times - 10
Mean temperature - 44.96
Variance - 4.90

Two-sample t-test:
T-statistic: -0.760 with 61 degrees of freedom
One-sided p-value: 0.225

***************************************************

Translation: We say these results are so extreme they would "only" happen one in four times by chance. Which isn't sufficient evidence to claim that there's any relationship between Groundhog's Day predictions and actual outcomes.

Sorry to eat away at your childhood :)

Obama Thus Far: 1.5 Thumbs Up

I would call this a sufficiently good summary of Obama's first 10 or so days.

Super Bowl Ads

Remarkably well done site given that some of the content is less than 12 hours old.

PS - The whole time I watched the ad for the new "Fast and the Furious" movie, I kept waiting for a tagline along the lines of "It's faster. It's furiouser." They let me down.