Electoral Vote Report, 10/20

I've also updated the graphs on the right.

Enjoy:

Heads Up!

RCP, Oct 14 - Obama +8.2
RCP, Oct 20 - Obama +4.8

Can we, yet again, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

(Side note: Obama's quick rise came at a rate of almost exactly 1 pt per 3 days. If he loses 1 pt per 3 days for the 15 days until the election, then McCain would hold a 0.2 pt "lead" over Obama. Of course, this is unlikely without a significant crisis, so don't get too worried.)

Extra side note: I'm sure you've read, but:
Old fundraising record: Barack Obama, 2008 (August) - $66 million
New fundraising record: Barack Obama, 2008 (September) - $150 million.

Keep in mind that September's totals include the $10 or $11 million raised in both the twenty-four hours following the RNC, as well as the quasi-infamous Barbra Streisand dinner.

An Interesting Read

Of course I'd heard of Adam Brinckley (sp?) before, if nowhere else than the Report. He's the guy who, in February 2007, started a blog called "Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President." If nothing else, you gotta give the guy credit for his insight.

Anyway, after he was mentioned on 538 this morning, I decided to stop over and start reading it from early August on through the announcement of the pick. Nothing earth-shattering, but an interesting read nonetheless.

Firefox Add-ons

I am always looking for ways to improve my Internet experience, and to that end I decided to share the list of Firefox add-ons that I use:

DownThemAll- download manager;
Foxmarks- bookmarks synchronizer;
Google Preview- inserts a picture of each webpage into Google or Yahoo search results;
Smart Bookmarks Bar- switches the bookmarks toolbar to icons only;
Tab Mix Plus- tab and tab options manager;
Ubiquity- see earlier post about Ubiquity.

Anyone have any great add-ons I am missing? I feel as if I do not see out new ones often enough, so I will be sharing any new ones I get as I come across them.

How much have states been polled?

Nevermind the absolute meanings of the numbers, all that matters is what they are relative to each other. Are the most important states being polled the most?

And if anyone knows enough HTML to get these huge spaces to go away, I'm all ears.

State	Polling Strength
Florida	14.24
Ohio	13.17
Pennsylvania	9.22
North Carolina	9.09
Virginia	9.05
Colorado	7.62
Missouri	7.01
Georgia	6.98
Minnesota	5.57
Michigan	5.26
Wisconsin	4.90
New Mexico	4.83
California	4.70
Nevada	4.48
Oregon	4.48
New Hampshire	4.12
New Jersey	4.03
Indiana	3.89
Massachusetts	3.52
New York	3.46
Iowa	2.96
Washington	2.85
North Dakota	2.66
South Carolina	2.33
Alabama	2.14
Oklahoma	2.09
Connecticut	2.05
Texas	1.99
Delaware	1.98
Kansas	1.88
West Virginia	1.76
Mississippi	1.68
Illinois	1.49
Alaska	1.49
Montana	1.47
Wyoming	1.41
Kentucky	1.29
Vermont	1.26
Maine	1.07
Tennessee	0.90
Arizona	0.70
Nebraska	0.58
Louisiana	0.43
Rhode Island	0.41
Maryland	0.40
Arkansas	0.40
Hawaii	0.36
Idaho	0.33
Utah	0.26
South Dakota	0.24
District of Columbia	0.08

McCain, Obama actually funny at event

If you haven't seen these they're worth watching. Note that each of them does boring pleasantries for the final 3-4 minutes of their respective routines.

McCain One and Two
Obama One and Two

High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute

Story

So, my understanding is that what is at issue here is a big issue. In states throughout the country, most notably Ohio and Florida, Republicans are doing their best to ensure that new voter registrations must match either current state DMV records or current federal Social Security records.

Not a bad idea in theory, but if Bartholomew registers as Bart, my understanding is his application is eligible for rejection. And have you seen your driver's license number? I know it's tough to imagine someone who's job entails keying in that information off of applications to possibly make a mistake, but that would also invalidate your application.

In fairness to the GOP, I'd be pretty pissed if Mickey Mouse got to vote.

Link Dump Repository

Ok, so I sincerely doubt that I have the best ideas about how to go about this, but I think everyone is in agreement (Bart and I spoke briefly on the topic) that we should have a consolidated link resource. So I've taken all the links posted (tagged with "links") and listed them here (I took out a few of my own) and tried to organize them.

If anyone has better ideas of how to go about this, be bold. And remember, anyone can edit any post, as far as I know, so we won't have to go through the comments page, you can just edit this post directly.

Also, theoretically a link can be posted under multiple categories (like Gmail's "labels") but I didn't want to do that without consultation.

Also, I'm not sure how to signal updates to the list because even for me updating the date in the upper right corner is tedious, plus this format constrains discussions.

Humor:
Disappointing Map of America (10/14)
I Witnessed a Murder Today (10/14)
The funniest thing I've ever read about taking a shit (10/03)
Fake tape of McCain terrified by Palin presidency (10/03)
Obama pretends to punch McCain (10/03)
Colbert on Huck/Rudy/Palin @ RNC (first five minutes) (10/03)
Fake Disney Trailer: Hockey mom becomes VP (10/03)
McCain '08, Palin '09 (10/03)
Self-described "Colbert's best Athiest moments" (10/03)
Palin's got that "Bridge to Nowhere" speech down (09/18)
Bush or Batman? (09/12)
Matt Damon on Sarah Palin (09/11)
Garfield Minus Garfield (09/07)
The Nietzsche Family Circus (09/07)
Japanese Mario Fan Art (09/07)
Russian Mario (09/07)
Bowser's Minions (09/07)
Fiscal conservatives (comic)
Peter's Evil Overlord List

Political:
Amusing, but Not Funny, Bob Herbert (10/14)
Conservative Kathleen Parker opposes Palin (10/14)
New Yorker on Joe Biden (10/13)
Wall Street Journal on Obama's tax cuts (10/13)
Obama's tax cuts don't add up (10/10)
Obama will be great president, Frank Schaeffer (10/09)
More conservative love for Obama, David Brooks (10/08)
That One '08 (10/08)
You bought one hell of a party for AIG (10/08)
New website gets my hopes up by tracking the NPVIC (Wiki) (10/08)
Cindy McCain: Obama's is "dirtiest campaign in history" (10/08)
Lessons Learned from Information Sharing (10/07)
Bradley Effect (10/06)
Don't worry about Bradley Effect (10/06)
Obamanomics (10/03)
George "Macaca" Allen heads GOP Minority Outreach program (09/18)
Offshore Drilling is not the answer, NYT (09/11)
Biden responds to RNC (09/05)

Utility:
Free statistical software (10/03)
Another Pandora? (10/03)

Technology:
New morphing drone to be based on pterodactyl (Wiki) (10/08)
Dude designs like, totally futuristic cities and stuff (10/03)

Sports:
Hahahahaha Cubs Suck (10/06)

Other:
Marching band goes all video-gamey (10/03)
Gauss is so awesome (09/05)

News:
NYC bottles tap water (09/18)
Google moves data sites offshore, avoids regulation (09/15)

Mathematics:
Free statistical software (10/03)
Benford's Law (Statistics) (10/03)

Religion:

Sort of Interesting Quiz

Prioritize your issues, give your opinions, read which candidates are similar to you.

I'll leave my scores as a comment.

Being An Adult, 3.0

First, we terrified you with gruesome market horror stories in Episode I.

But then, we came back, and showed you a mortifying tale in Episode II.

As John McCain once said: If you think it's bad now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.


Previous episodes were on 9/17 and 9/30

And yes, it's true that if I'd put all this money in the mattress except for one payment, which I lit on fire and threw in the trash, I'd be richer.

Update: OK, so I just did the math. Since 9/18 one month ago, I've lost $511.01. At a 0% rate of return since 9/18, I would be at $2,880.00, instead I'm at $2,368.99.

Now There's A Thought

When you wake up on the morning of January 20, 2017, I'd say there's a better than 50-50 chance that Barack Obama is still the president. Just soak that in for a second.

Think It's Real?

Apparently Sarah Palin has more in common with W. than I thought.



Update: Creepy. I got an email saying that this post had been posted. When I clicked on it, the ad showing in my Gmail read "Sarah Palin's IQ is 120." (It was an ad for an online IQ test)

Irish Bookie Pays Out on Obama Bets

Told you that there was little reason to worry. This guy's already paying off as if the election was over.

McCain Can't Catch a Break

Just rumors at this point, but Joe the Plumber may be related to Charles Keating.

What are the odds? There's no hard fact at this point and after I saw something about this on Wikipedia I just linked to the first thing that came up when I googled it, so the Daily Kos article I linked to is pretty poor. Nonetheless, bad news for McCain if it's true.

Um...what?

McCain on abortion, at last night's debate:

"Just again, the example of the eloquence of Sen. Obama. He's health for the mother. You know, that's been stretched by the pro-abortion movement in America to mean almost anything. That's the extreme pro-abortion position, quote, 'health.'"

I mean, I know what he's saying - that, if Roe v Wade was struck down, making exceptions for "the health and life of the woman" presents a gray area, and that he views it as a pro-choice (NOT "pro-abortion," John) last-ditch effort to make abortion available - but I think he worded it really poorly. To me, it drives home the point that so many pro-lifers come off as valuing a woman's life less than driving down the number of abortions.

State Offices in Swing States

Work in progress. Using Wikipedia, the VA and WV Supreme Courts were not worth tracking down. NC's justices are elected by popular vote in "non-partisan" ways.

Also, for Supreme Courts, party affiliation reflects the party of the official who appointed the justice (typically Governor), not necessary the justice's own views.

State	Gov	Lt Gov	Sec/State	Att Gen	SC (D)	SC (R)
CO	Dem	Dem	Rep	Rep	5	2
VA	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
FL	Rep	Rep	Rep	Rep	5	2
MO	Rep	Rep	Dem	Dem	4	3
NV	Rep	Rep	Dem	Dem	1	6
OH	Dem	Dem	Dem	Dem	1	6
NC	Dem	Dem	Dem	Dem
IN	Rep	Rep	Rep	Rep	3	2
WV	Dem	None	Rep	Dem

the aftermath

Katie, I think you especially will appreciate this well-crafted euphemism (in bold below) employed by NYT in its article "Candidates Clash Over Character and Policy":

"At times showing anger and at others a methodical determination to make all his points, Mr. McCain pressed his Democratic rival on taxes, spending, the tone of the campaign and his association with the former Weather Underground leader William Ayers, using nearly every argument at his disposal in an effort to alter the course of a contest that has increasingly gone Mr. Obama’s way."

Methodical determination? How about repeating the same disputed points over and over again while Obama attempted to clarify and defend his policies?

Yes, I thought McCain had to reach for "the kitchen sink and the plumber" to try to make his points in this one.

Wow, Massachusetts.

I couldn't help but comment - there is generally a pretty loose correlation between a state's red/blue identity for presidential elections, and how it votes when it comes to Senators/Representatives/State Offices. But each of Massachusetts' 10 districts are rated "Safe Democrat," with only two representatives who have served fewer than 10 years in Congress. Even in the most partisan of states, a clean sweep like this is never seen.

Why I am giving up on John McCain

I know, right? I'm not for John McCain - it's tough to believe. But while I often mindlessly ramble about this sort of thing, this is something I really mean, and am really serious about.

I've said over and over that when it comes to Republicans, John McCain is about as good as they come. He does have a record of true bipartisanship in some areas, he once considered becoming a Democrat, and he's an all-around good guy. He's not the smartest guy ever and didn't demonstrate particular proficiency during his military career, but he really did act with honor amid circumstances under which no one is able to say for sure whether they could act so nobly. When it comes to policy his (long-term) record really does differ significantly from President Bush. Plus, in these economic times, it's tough to push the button for a Democrat pushing larger increases in government spending and smaller net tax cuts.

Because of Barack Obama, John McCain never had a chance at my vote this year. But if it were Kerry against McCain, I can't say for sure I'd color my ballot blue. It would depend on circumstance.

But I believe there's finally enough evidence to say for sure what many of Obama's supporters have said for some time - the old John McCain is gone.

We appear to be in a once-in-a-generation crisis. It's a situation that calls for leadership of historic proportions. It's a situation that calls for politics to take a back burner, and for us to put Country First. That John McCain has juxtaposed these actions with that slogan makes this all the more painful. You see, John McCain is the underdog in this election, and he's playing the underdog playbook pretty well.

But everything from the Palin pick to the attack ads to the unwillingness to tell his radical rally supporters to shut up shows that, for even the slightest chance at a comeback in the election, John McCain is willing to take the country down with him as he slides into defeat, at a time when we need unity more than ever. When he raises Bill Ayres, when Palin speaks of pallin', all they do divide us when we need to be united. All they do is increase distrust for the future president. All they do is make the job of repairing our problems that much more difficult.

The glory of the Old McCain is he was one of the few guys in Washington you could count on to never do exactly what he's doing. And that's why I've finally lost faith in John McCain.

I Hate Dick Morris

The guy regularly lives up to his first name. A former Clinton advisor, he now spends his days on FOX News insinuating about Obama's background.

Today he's come out with his electoral map. Oddly, it shows an Obama landslide, but only a crazy one, with Barack picking up Arizona and Tennessee. Dick Morris, I don't know what you're up to, but I still hate you.

Quick Link

*sighs*

Here's another one worth reading.

I <3 Bob Herbert

This is a great, if somewhat unspecific, op-ed regarding the lack of common sense in the campaign and country right now. A quick, refreshing read.

Amusing, but Not Funny

By BOB HERBERT

Another article John McCain won't read...

We have all made jokes about McCain's unfamiliarity with the Internet, but this article may be the best yet. Not only does this call into question his current decision-making abilities (i.e. this crazy bastard chooses to avoid the Internet), but also his potential for improvement (or at least some form of stop-loss on brainpower) in the future.

The 2008 Voter Turnout Measurement Problem

... just got more complicated.

I hypothesize that with everything we already know about the enthusiasm gap for each party this year, Obama's holding a clear lead in the polls would depress turnout on the Republican side ("we're gonna lose anyway") without having a similar effect on the Democratic side ("I don't care how much it looks like we're gonna win by, we aren't taking any chances this year"). The strength of Obama's ground game (a gamble in some senses) will be of critical interest to future political strategists; the actual effects, however, could be rather difficult to determine.

It's Time to Celebrate!

With a pair of glimmering Quinnipiac polls showing Obama up by 9 points in Colorado, the objective portion of my model has moved Colorado into the "safe" column in my objective table (the one I've been posting is the subjective one, though the numeric lead listed is not). As far as I'm concerned, you can take this as the end of the election.

Update: I posted a new chart for Colorado, but left the old one up, just for comparison.

I was for her before I was against her

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker the latest to turn her back on Sarah Palin.

Eh, I'm bored.

ALL POINTS BULLETIN

Holy crap. If there's an ounce of truth to this the election is over now no matter what happens.

Update: Missouri moves from McCain +1.4 to Obama +1.3 in my model. There hasn't been much polling in Missouri lately so this poll is weighted too heavily (in everyone's model, btw) so look closely for new polling in the state.

Two Obama articles worth reading

New Yorker on Joe Biden
Wall Street Journal on Obama's tax cuts

New Pollan article

I haven't had a chance to read it yet, but this week the NYT Magazine leads with an article by Michael Pollan about what the next president should do with regards to food in the USA.

My friends ...

"... we've got them just where we want them."

Campaign FAIL

EV Scorecard, 10/13

It doesn't work so well as a comment on the Master Thread, so here we go:

A new grammar debate: the serial comma.

Background information.

I would like a bit more arguing on this site, as we tend to agree on politics, the de facto topic of choice for this blog. To that end, I am curious to hear opinions on use of the serial comma. I am strongly in favor of the serial comma as the standard rather than the exception because it is the least likely form to lead to ambiguity. I will even go one step beyond this and argue that in the cases in which the serial comma would lead to ambiguity the sentence should be rephrased, as it is clearly confusing in its current form.

In case you would like to hear a song about the serial comma, check out "Oxford Comma" by Vampire Weekend. The band sounds like a strange combination of Peter Gabriel, The Police, and Paul Simon. Perfect time to use the serial comma.

Update: As it turns out, this is the 100th post on this site. Way to go, everyone. Chris, thanks for keeping this going when the rest of us slack off. I don't know about everyone else, but I appreciate the updates even when I am not posting regularly.

Holy 50%, Batman!

Sweet. Obama's finally polling at 50% over at RCP. To get an idea of how painful it's been to watch for this, click and drag on the graph such that only October's polling is showing. It's been a long wait.

But, as I've said before, hitting 50% in a polling average typically means it's all but over, barring the ole October surprise, which most commentators (and I agree) seem to think already happened with the stock market. Ask yourself the question: if they caught bin Laden today, do you think McCain could actually pull it out? I'm skeptical.

Paul Krugman, Really?

I'll not say much since this is probably a topic you guys have thoughts on, but let me just say that based on the times I've seen him on TV, I wouldn't have guessed Paul Krugman was Nobel Prize kinda stuff. I hold him in pretty mediocre regard, really.

Some refreshing historical perspective

I enjoyed this article. It made me take a step back. Link.

And So It Begins ...

... here we go folks. It's going to be a long election.

Interesting side-effect of adaptation

New Scientist published a blurb that discusses the impact on climate of placing reflective greenhouses in arid parts of Spain. Obviously not the be-all, end-all of global warming, but a nice surprise.

YAY

Breaking News 11:39 AM ET:

Connecticut State Supreme Court Overturns Ban on Same-Sex Marriage

(NYT)


One by one...

Which Obama Will Be President?

Will we see the hard left economic policies of Candidate Obama, or the free-market lover in the New York Times article? I hate articles written in this style, but if it's the first one, some important questions show tough times could be ahead (in my opinion)

Be Careful With The "L" Word

We're all getting excited, and who can blame us? Barack Obama has been trading at almost exactly 50% on Intrade since he locked up the nomination, but has shot up to nearly 80% in the last week and a half. Analysts are saying McCain has no shot. McCain's own campaign is clearly in emergency mode. He even conceded Michigan's 17 EVs.

But this election is not over. History shows that elections trend tighter as the finish approaches. Obama's lead is generally placed at 5-6%. I don't think it's unreasonable to assert that there's a good chance Johnny Mac could scrape back a few points, and bring him down to 3-4%.

And here's the thing - my model shows Obama's lead is less than 2% in quite a few states. In fact, he would only hold on to his core of 264 EVs, plus Colorado and Virginia, where I show him up by 3.0% and 3.3% respectively. Now this gets him to 286 EVs (interestingly, the number GWB carried in '04) which is plenty to win, but not enough to start your party early.

So I'm not trying to scare you, but there are still a few ways this could go wrong. 538 shows that if Obama loses Ohio, he's only got a 2/3 chance at winning the election, and I wouldn't consider Ohio "in the bag" by any means.

Liberally speaking, VA, CO, NV, FL, OH, NC, MO, and IN are still in play. I pity the fool who's got to win every single one of those states; nonetheless, the fat lady's still not ready to go on.

The gods are totally going to strike Frank Schaeffer down...

...because he is seriously tempting fate here.

It's exciting to read, though.

Obama Will Be One of The Greatest (and Most Loved) American Presidents

One more to start the morning...

Iceland going bankrupt?

I really enjoyed reading this article through the lens of basic economic theory. The thing that really stuck with me was dichotomy of reactions: some Icelanders (?) are rushing out and buying Rolexes, hoping to cash out their chips (read: watches) elsewhere; others have been gripped by an impressive calm of reason, as can be best epitomized by this quote from the now-bankrupt Elvis of Iceland: "'What is important at a time like this is not picking out whom to blame,' he said. 'We have a government that is trying to do their best, but we will have to see what they come up with. Maybe it is a new dawn for Iceland.'"

I fear that in the USA we have far more of the former category, with the anti-intellectualism trend winning out by a significant margin. That said, I don't think the USA has seen the worst of its bank-run potential on display yet; just wait for the government to take a controlling stake in many of the major banks. Seriously, we need to get on a discussion about the precedents being set right now, because they are a little scary.

Greenspan's new legacy

I really enjoyed this article. I am too tired to start it now, but I think a discussion about the Fed and the precedent-setting nature of its recent actions would be worthwhile.

Good article

"But there has been a counter, more populist tradition, which is not only to scorn liberal ideas but to scorn ideas entirely. And I'm afraid that Sarah Palin has those prejudices."

"He's phenomenally good at surrounding himself with a team. I disagree with them on most issues, but I am given a lot of comfort by the fact that the people he's chosen are exactly the people I think most of us would want to choose if we were in his shoes."

-David Brooks from Huffington Post

After this I'll be done pulling stupid lefty graphics from Daily Kos, I swear...

...but again, I find this one kinda funny.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/7/235723/393/919/623521

Morning News Rundown

You bought one hell of a party for AIG

New website gets my hopes up by tracking the NPVIC (Wiki)

New morphing drone to be based on pterodactyl (Wiki)
Actually, this is cool. The dino in question could walk on all fours, or just two, or fly.

Cindy McCain: Obama's is "dirtiest campaign in history"

Palin debate flow chart

This is from Daily Kos, which is ....Daily Kos, so obviously break out your nugget of salt, but this is pretty funny.

random link

Sometimes interesting or provoking things come my way at work. I just registered with this program and really found it incredible that it even exists- an organized arm of a governmental project. The service is both efficient, productive, and, get this- useful. Granted, it is only for us DHS employees and affiliates, but still.

Check it out: Lessons Learned

Random thoughts on 1996 election

I did a quick read on the '96 election when I was looking to see Bill's EV total. I got a little curious about how in the hell Bob Dole, who had already been dead for 15 years, got the nomination. I came across two interesting little tidbits along the way:

Bob Dole carried 47 states. Of the remaining four, Pat Buchanan won Missouri, Louisiana, and New Hampshire, none of which have anything in common with any of the other. Steve Forbes won New Mexico. Weird. Also, Buchanan is from Virginia and Forbes is from New York, so neither carried his home state even though he carried other states (can we please call this Al Gore Syndrome?)

Also, Jack Kemp endorsed Steve Forbes over Bob Dole, before Bob Dole made him his running mate.

Oops

If you are set to receive new posts by email then you saw that earlier I reported some pretty exciting scenarios for Obama (anywhere from 318 to 375 EVs). I didn't realize I had accidentally cut the half-life on my polls from 25 to 10 days, so newer polls were more heavily weighted. That may not be an unreasonable estimation given that we had a sudden event, but I'm still going with the more conservative method.

Either way, my latest update is in the EV master thread.

Oh, and one more thought: a few polls out today indicate the race may be tightening slightly. I'll keep you posted.

Predictions for the debate

I saw the cartoon below and immediately became elated because Biden will not have to appear in public ever again before the election.





That said, I was hoping to hear predictions about the debate tomorrow night. I think McCain may attempt to continue the negative streak, but will hit a stone wall (perhaps a Stonewall is more appropriate, as many of us went to NYU) because of both Obama's ability to counter gracefully and also the town-hall style of the debate. Also because of the format, I feel it will be easier for Obama to do well; McCain is a zombie, after all. I don't really have anything else to add on this topic, so I will move on.

Question: why is there no debate closer to the election? Is this simply an effort to prevent a post-debate bump from deciding the election? Or, is it a vast, liberal media plot to prevent John McCain's sparkling personality and graceful way with words from winning over the undecideds and the weak liberals? Thoughts?

Does race really matter?

For a lot of this campaign, I've been worried - sort of closet-worried, actually, because I feel weird talking about it - about the Bradley effect - basically the idea that lots of white people are closet-racists and, when they get the polling booth, will flash back to 9/11, see how much the name on their ballot resembles "Osama," and vote McCain. Or just decide they can't handle a black president.

But this NYTimes article - which, fair warning, rambles a bit - tells me the issue of race is both more complex and less worrisome than I thought. It's a good read.

P.S. Now that the Cubs have choked, I'm even more neurotically worried about Obama, despite the polls. I really thought that this was the year for both of them.

The VP's VP

It's January 20, 2009. [John McCain/Barack Obama] is being sworn is as president. Some guy who's spent his whole life talking about how [white people/black people] are ruining this country grabs his [Assault rifle/Sawed-off shotgun] and kills the president. [Sarah Palin/Joe Biden] is sworn in.

Now, it will matter in one case more than in the other but either way it's still relevant: how does a new VP get chosen? I emailed the guy at electoral-vote.com because he knows lots of stuff like this and talks about it all the time.

Chris
If Obama or McCain die in office, how would Biden/Palin then choose their new VP?

The Votemaster
Biden: by consulting with the Senate, cabinet and others
Palin: by asking the other hockey moms on her kids' teams

Fortunately, the Senate has to confirm the appointment.

Talk about your slow-play

In poker, a slow play is when you get a killer hand early on, but wait to use it to your advantage (by betting big) until the later rounds of betting.

I wondered why Charles Keating hadn't been in the news more, or been part of Obama's campaign. Well now we know: he's got a whole website devoted to the association. I'm so glad to see Democrats with a well-run campaign.

I Called It

So, I'll follow up on this later, but it seems I was Wright in predicting McCain's new campaign strategy (what a knee slapper!) and he's about to go all-negative, all-the-time. It won't work because you can't go negative against candidates with very high approval ratings (both Obama and McCain have had good favorability ratings all season), but it's the only card he's got left and he's right to play it.

Also, a lot of people are saying that John McCain is making a mistake by pulling out of Michigan. If there is a mistake to his Michigan strategy, it's that he didn't pull out sooner. He's never had a real shot at Michigan, but its 17 EVs are tempting. I'll write more about McCain's strategy from an EV perspective soon, but he's just screwed.

Link Dump! (Updated)

Been meaning to do this for weeks. (Now prioritized)

First Tier:
The funniest thing I've ever read about taking a shit.
Obamanomics (already frequented in this group, but whatever)
The Sun has identity issues (just a pic)
Fake tape of McCain terrified by Palin presidency (this is damn funny)
Best 'In Memorium" ever
Only if you'd probably hate Bristol's future husband
IF ONLY
If you keep it open for 10 seconds, you will find it hilarious
Colbert on Huck/Rudy/Palin @ RNC: First five minutes are classic (gotta love Joe L)
Speaking of Joe Lieberman - best line ever? (DNC 2000)
Paraphrase: "Politics is a lot like driving. When you want to go forward, you put it in 'D'. If you want to go backward, you put it in 'R.'"
Fake Disney Trailer: Hockey mom becomes VP
(OK, so I thought it was hilarious, but no one else has yet, just watch it twice)
New Obama ad scares voters - imagine if McCain wins
I think these arguments are B.S., but here's Obama living more modestly than McCain
The REAL ticket (and why to vote against it)
Marching band goes all video-gamey. (kinda cool, even though the performance is subpar)

Second Tier:
Free statistical software (OK, I haven't taken advantage, but you might)
Another Pandora? (I haven't used this, either)
Benford's Law (Statistics)
Textbook Wheel (Goddammit I haven't been to any of these sites)
Testimony on rigging Ohio in 2004 (only worth watching if you really want to)
The "Is-Is" Epidemic (props to Bart, probably already linked here)
McCain anti-earmark ad includes Palin's earmark
Another Obama lolcat site (not that I'm endorsing Katie's friends' competitors)
My favorite tag on Katie's friends' site (told ya)
Rachel Ray accidentally goes flying past PG-13 (kinda funny)
A lil' anti-religion humor
Things you wish you'd thought of in elementary school
Probably not funny without the last line
Only if you're a bit sick in the head
Only if you've ever been "rickrolled"
Self-described "Colbert's best Athiest moments" (I haven't seen 'em all)
A semi-interesting article on Spitzer's prostitute
You can't feel sorry for GWB, but if you wanted to, here's how
BellX1: Linked to Wiki not music, but saw them open for Stars and really liked 'em
NYT a few days ago on bailout, can't remember why I saved it
Not-so-intelligent design (not for squeamish, but now that I put that, you'll look anyway)
(Never realized "squeamish" had so many consecutive vowels)
If Miley Cyrus was Oil, from the Onion (mildly funny)
Dude designs like, totally futuristic cities and stuff

Ubiquity, Firefox, and the future of the Internet

Some of you know that I am a huge advocate of Quicksilver, a launch-bar-like program that allows you to more quickly and easily interact with and manipulate digital information, programs, websites, images, etc. (Unfortunately, this is a Mac-only program. I say unfortunately because some people still use PCs, foolishly)

Firefox is slowly catching up to the newest developments in digital interaction through Ubiquity. I highly recommend everyone check it out as a time-saver (and also as one of those things that makes you look super-cool in front of others).

I'm such a disappointment

The guys from 538 (not Nate) were just down the street from me last night and I didn't go buy them beers. I am so sorry to all of you.

Obama to shift focus to health care

I sort of wondered and hoped all summer if the reason that Barack Obama was spending so little time on the economy (an issue on which the people always side with the Democrats) was so as not to "wear it out" or "use it up" so that he could drive it home in the final months.

It appears that he's doing exactly that with health care (he didn't have much choice on the economy), another issue on which Americans heavily favor Democrats. I think this is a fantastic strategy and I'm really excited, as I was just starting to wonder why they weren't discussing it more.

Here's the story and their latest ad, which is taken straight from the VP debate.

oh also

you guys might enjoy LOLbama.com, creating by a couple of my high school friends. Pure fluff, but some of it's pretty funny. Apologies if I should have posted this in a links section...

"She succeeded by not failing in any obvious way."

(the above is quote from today's New York Times)

Completely outside of my thoughts on the debate itself, I've found the media coverage to be just ...strange.

I've seen the above statement, in one iteration or another, in practically every major newspaper today. Yes, expectations for Palin were stupendously low, and yes, she exceeded them. But is this really all that matters? Lack of a "I read anything that's put in front of me"-level fuck-up?

I'm frustrated because I feel like all I'm reading about the debate is "well, neither of them doomed their ticket." I guess that in some ways, that really is all that it was about, given the VP's Constitutional lack of power (despite all signs to the contrary from Cheney), but they discussed a huge range of topics, and it seems like everyone who didn't watch and relies on the news for their information to inform their decision-making isn't getting much today.

Thoughts?

Somebody help me out

If a president dies and the vice president moves up to the presidency, what are the rules (if any) governing the former VP's new VP pick? That is, what do we or can we know about who Joe Biden and Sarah Palin would choose in the "what-if" scenario?

WTF M.O. your the only swing state still in McCain's Camp.

Seriously.

Bloomberg Seeks Third Term

Me, I'm almost always opposed to the circumvention of rules to keep a current regime in power, but I was curious what those closer to the action thought. It seems he's playing the "Can the city really survive without me?" card, which is a tough hand to go with if it didn't work for Rudy.

Discussion Topic: VP Debate

As much as I love talking to office cohorts about these things, I was hoping for some reasonable input. Gimme some thoughts on anything. Should Gwen Ifill step down? Who's going to win, and what does that mean? What does each side need to do or avoid? Can Biden get himself booted from the ticket by the end of the week? Can Palin?

Personally, I'd like to see them get in a more politically-well-phrased variant of the line "What's the difference between Sarah Palin and George W. Bush? -Lipstick," but I don't know if that's feasible with SuperGaffe at the helm.

Nicolas Sarkozy reads our site

France is putting pressure Gordon Brown to pass a European bailout, something that came up here pretty recently.

OK, I was wrong

So, I've taken a lot of flak from a lot of people because I've always said that I had a lot of respect for William F. Buckley, even though I couldn't name a single issue on which we agreed. I admit, he is kind of a dick, mentioning in 2004 that he respected John Kerry because he was regarded as the second-best debator in the whole university while he attended Yale - before mentioning that it was Buckley himself who was regarded as number one. But his arguments were (mostly) good and command of English among the best I've ever seen, so I read him more than any other conservative columnist.

The short version of the story is that since the third child born to his son Christopher Buckley (Thank You For Smoking) is the product of an out-of-wedlock affair, the 8-year-old with ADHD is being intentionally and explicitly excluded from the parsing of William's $30M estate. I could drone on, but the point is that that's just cold.

States and Probability: A Simple Method

(Note: I don't know why the table starts so far down, feel free to fix it if you can)

OK, so I've been foiled a few times. An earlier version of this post wasn't saved into the comments on the EV Master Thread, and the HTML-intensive nature of this post means I can't make it a comment on that thread.

So as the picture gets complicated (take NC, where everyone in the country thinks it's a toss up but my math still shows it's solid McCain) I like to have a common sense test, so I added a feature that simply counts the number of times each candidate has been ahead or tied in a poll in the given state.

Clearly this method has problems. If a state has two polls, a bad poll from May putting Obama up by 5 and a good poll from October putting McCain up by 5, they will each have 1 "point". So I then added another line to weight each poll by pollster quality and date. Then, I took the percent of times Obama was in the lead under each methodology and I also added the current probability from 538 into the following table. The table is in order by my actual mathematical average.

State	Signs	Signs2	538
DC	100	100	100
HI	100	100	100
VT	100	100	100
MD	100	100	100
DE	100	100	99
NY	96	100	99
MA	89	100	99
RI	100	100	99
IL	100	100	99
CT	100	100	98
CA	100	100	98
OR	95	100	96
IA	96	93	94
ME	100	100	93
NJ	88	100	95
WA	96	100	96
NM	76	84	89
MI	79	88	88
WI	89	99	90
PA	75	92	84
MN	89	94	90
CO	71	72	84
VA	46	51	78
NH	74	70	71
NV	41	28	67
OH	38	31	67
FL	29	33	58
IN	25	24	50
MO	17	3	43
NC	13	25	44
WV	0	0	22
MT	20	11	17
ND	25	13	16
AR	0	0	9
GA	0	0	11
LA	0	0	8
TX	0	0	8
MS	0	0	6
SC	0	0	5
AZ	0	0	7
SD	0	0	6
KY	0	0	3
TN	0	0	2
KS	0	0	3
AK	0	0	5
NE	0	0	2
AL	0	0	1
WY	0	0	1
OK	0	0	0
ID	0	0	1
UT	0	0	1

The Case Against Discussing John McCain's Health

And it's not political. It's just reasonable.

Given his previous skin cancer but otherwise relatively healthy life, we know John McCain's chances of surviving the next 5-10 years peak out at around 2/3 or 67%.

No matter how unhealthy he really is, he's been going around campaigning just about as hard as I could for a year now, so he's got to be reasonably healthy. Say his chances bottom out at around 1/3, or 33%.

So if McCain's chances of survival are between 1/3 and 2/3, that means that the merits of his VP choice are absolutely on the table, but that his death is not to be regarded as certain. And no matter how much else we know or jockey around with when it comes to McCain's health, that previous sentence won't change. So I think everybody should cut the guy a little slack on the health issue.

Scattered Morning Thoughts

The corruption trial of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens (R) moves forward today. Accused of accepting bribes in the form of home improvement work, his honest-to-god defense today is apparently going to be "I asked him to bill me every cent and that darned contractor only charged me X." Good luck, Uncle Ted.

Speaking of Alaska politicians who have no business running for election in 2008 - no, not Don Young, silly, but I've got plenty coming on him, too - Sarah Palin's debate chances are getting better everyday, the way I see it. Why? The moderator of the debate is Gwen Ifill.

Oh, that doesn't tell you the whole story? My fault. Allow me to explain. See, Gwen Ifill is a woman. That's good for us. The right wing can't complain about how sexist the moderator was. However, Gwen Ifill is a black woman. And not just any black woman. She's a black woman who's releasing a book on the day of Obama's (hopeful) inauguration as president that is titled The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama. I mean, seriously? Everything she says is going to get criticized, but thankfully the American public has really turned on Sarah Palin. Gear up the spin machines, this one's gettin' ugly.

Speaking of Palin and the VP debate, it just occurred to me yesterday that I drive by the Field House at Wash U everyday on my way to work (in fact, I have to find a different way tomorrow because of the debate). I wish I could get a seat, but they're reserved for students. Apparently the CPD usually gives out about 150 tickets, and this year 7,500 students registered for them (Wash U has 6,000 undergrads). That's our record, and it's only for the VP debate. Holy cow.

Hey, when's the last time NYU hosted a debate? Because Wash U has been chosen for five straight elections. (Notice the careful phrasing - we didn't host one in 1996 because Bill Clinton decided there were too many so he cancelled)

(And speaking of the debate: I thought this was priceless)

Finally, 538 has an article today about favorability ratings and the debates. I noticed yesterday that there had been a sharp change in favorability ratings in the last couple days, and he shows that Obama didn't gain independents as much as harden his support among Democrats. I thought it highly likely, and later in the article he agreed, that this could be the Hillary Clinton voters (PUMAs) finally coming over to our side (in a separate article it turns out health care was one of his most significant lines - who knew?), which would probably throw the election into - my new favorite phrase - "minor landslide" mode. Perhaps I could use the phrase "Clinton landslide" since it looks like it may mirror Bill's EV figures, but either way, that's the path we're on at the moment.

European Politicians Getting Bailout

Coming back from lunch NPR had a whole slew of politicians from across the pond calling on America to "take responsibility" and pass a bailout. What fortune for them. They get to bash America and call on someone else to do the heavy lifting on something they themselves will benefit from, both directly and indirectly. If they want to talk that kind of talk I'd like to see them chip in. Would the world tell us to "take responsibility" if we got hit by a $700B hurricane?

Misleading Claims by McCain on Obama’s Tax Plans

I knew there was something fishy about McCain's claim in the debate that Obama "wants to raise taxes on people making only $42,000 a year." And I was right. Shocker.

This article in the Times debunks several lies McCain has told about Obama's tax policy, as well as a couple that Obama's made about McCain.

Out of curiosity, what do you guys think of Obama's proposed tax policy? I support it, but have read a lot of mixed reactions....

Space Flight

OK, maybe this is old news by now but the first private spacecraft made orbit the other day. I'm (obviously) a big proponent of private spaceflight and look forward to going into space.

Now if only we could get that Space Elevator thing going.

(I just want to add: when I get depressed about the state of our world, I like to spend 5 minutes reading about the space elevator. It's just so unbelievably cool.)

Senate Race Master Thread

Same as EV Master Thread

Electoral Vote Master Thread

OK, I'm gonna perma-link this post and subsequent would-be posts will be added as comments to this thread.

Also, pictures that go with the posts will just have to go here, because I don't think I can include them as comments.

Pictures:
EVs, 09/11
Colorado, 09/25

Sucks to be an adult 2.0

(Compare to two weeks ago)

It Feels Nice

... to beat Nate Silver by nearly two weeks.
Me. Him.

Discussion Topic: Economy

I'm going to link to this on the right so we can have one discussion thread.

House Race Master Thread

This will be my main thread for posting about elections in the U.S. House of Representatives

Images:

September 29, 2008:


October 22, 2008: (sorry it got flip-turned upside-down)

First Debate

Alright, I'll chip in two cents. I don't know what the spin will do, but here's my read: basically, nobody really "won". Both candidates were pretty good, and both were rather boring.

But that's not what McCain needed. Any sports fan knows that, with his lead surging by any polling standard, Obama wants to run out the clock. And because Obama didn't look naive and because he didn't have a major gaffe, he essentially won because he's up by two touchdowns and a field goal, but now there's eight minutes left on the clock instead of ten. Same score, less time, McCain's in trouble.

(And, since this is the only foreign policy debate, you could argue that this is John's best chance, his only possession with a real shot.)

That's I'll I got.

She's freakin' out, man

Does anyone else get the sense, from the Katie Couric interview and reading about the meeting with Kissinger, that Palin is finally realizing that she's in way over her head?

Minor Improvement

I made it so the table in the corner is now a link to the homepage, so that if you click on it while viewing another page on the site you can just easily go back home. Note that clicking on the title accomplishes the same effect, but for now I've colored it the same color as the background because I wish we had a better one.

Also, just to note, I've invited Warren and Desiree to join us, though I don't know that they'll be contributing often.

I have to root for the Red Sox?!

As the 2008 MLB regular season winds down, we can start to see what the playoff picture will look like.

Boston is a good team - probably better than the Rays - but they appear headed for defeat in the division race. My basic model shows the following:

Red Sox
94 wins - 3%
95 wins - 36%
96 wins - 53%
97 wins - 9%

Rays
96 wins - 3%
97 wins - 39%
98 wins - 51%
99 wins - 7%

This gives Tampa Bay a 95% chance at a clean win in the division. This would set up a 2/3 matchup of Boston at LAA and a 1/4 Minnesota/Chicago White Sox at Tampa.

The Angels will be tough for Boston because they have such a strong pitching staff, but I think the Sox can prevail. To a lesser extent I'd say the same thing about Tampa Bay, but I think that, especially with the second round being a seven-game series in the ALCS, it is Los Angeles that is Boston's larger roadblock to the World Series.

In the National League things are less clear, but I am relatively confident that the NLCS will feature the Chicago Cubs taking down the winner of the NL East (New York/Philadelphia).

So I predict that it will most likely be the Red Sox and the Cubs in the World Series.

This makes things horrible for a Cardinals fan. Although the ecstasy from Tom Brady's knee is still brightening each and every day for me, I can't help but continue to hate Boston and all its teams. Except the Bruins. You can have them.

But this pales in comparison to my hatred for Chicago and its sports teams. The Cardinals-Cubs have the most underrated rivarly in sports, and the Cardinals have something special at stake this year. No team in North American professional sports can boast that their rival has failed to win a championship in more than a century. With the Cubs celebrating the centennial of their 1908 World Series this year, we in St. Louis ask them to hold off for just one more year, so that we can talk the best trash in all of sports.

So, even though the Cubs haven't won a World Series in the same time that the Cardinals were able to win 10 (although the Sox total of 2 in the same span - since 1926 - isn't anything to get excited about), they do present a huge challenge this year. Their run differential is the best in baseball, and their pitching staff is solid, headed by Carlos Zambrano, who recently threw a no-hitter (nevermind that he gave up a grand slam to the Cardinals in his first inning of work following the no-no). All-in-all, if it comes down to Sox-Cubs, I'd put 60% odds on the Cubs, but I'll root as hard as I can for the Sox anyway.

How much valuable corn was wasted 'constructing' this?

I hate you, Mid West.

And I know corn is not realistically valuable. I read Omnivore' Dilemma.

Making the Bible more interesting

I am obviously not a fan of the Bible, but I enjoyed the way it is presented here.

I Love Nate Silver

OK, so the guy's got no data on back-to-back conventions ever, and he still nailed it:

I swear I didn't doctor my graph in any way, except to change the axes. Damn.

Proposal

I think we should have a few running discussions going like, such as, and, one on the economy, or one for links, etc. All such semi-permanent threads should then have links on the permanent link list, and we can just keep one conversation going on pretty easily. Thoughts?

In Case You Didn't See

This is an interesting article about a suit by Bob Barr, who alleges that Obama and McCain both failed to follow the rules and deadlines to appear on the ballot in Texas.

This could be a huge sleeper issue. If it is true, and it seems the court offered little reasoning to back up its ruling against Barr, its implications are enormous. This would mean that neither McCain nor Obama could compete for Texas' 34 EVs. This alone would end the McCain campaign. Obama, however, never had a chance at Texas, so the only struggle would be whether Obama could get to 270 EVs, or whether the contest would go to the House. By that point, I can only imagine the furor.

Imagine if Obama gets fewer than 269 EVs. That means McCain would have won without the Texas issue, so there would be tremendous pressure on the House to elect him anyway. But the House will probably be Democratic. And all of this is without regarding what the popular vote does, which will be fuel for whichever fire wins it. I mean, I've heard a lot about how this election could make 2000 look like babies fighting over candy, but this is a step above all, and I can only assume would result in some pretty seroius rioting.

Thinking in advance

So what happens to the upper-right corner of this blog after the election? I figure we should start considering suggestions now so we have something we are happy with by the time mid-November rolls around. I would love to have more statistics up there, but: 1. don't really have a suggestion for the content; and 2. don't really have the skills to continue it.

Chris, if you will help teach me how to properly use Excel for statistics, I would greatly appreciate it and gladly help with the work that goes into the upper-right box.

He Didn't Listen To Me Earlier

Joe,

We're not asking anymore. No "please" or "thanks" or "no thanks" (or bridges). Stop talking. Now.

-America

Environmental News

You may or may not be aware that I am the environmental czar for my company's St. Louis office. Here is a copy of the email I sent out in that capacity today:

As you probably know, polar ice caps play a very significant role in models and simulations relating to the effects of global climate change. Ice on the earth’s surface helps the planet reflect solar heat instead of absorb it, the same way wearing a white t-shirt keeps you cool in the summer time. Additionally, this melting changes the salinity of our oceans. The effects of this have been linked to global weather patterns and are thought to contribute to extreme weather conditions, such as the intensity of hurricanes. And all of this is in addition to the fact that melting ice caps mean sea levels rise, resulting in potential catastrophes for coastal cities near sea level.

It is imperative, then, that we take note of any reasonable evidence available regarding changes in the polar ice caps.

The tribulations of polar bears are now well documented, with the United States formally listed the species as threatened in May 2008. Their habitats are in peril, and their food supply shrinking. Today, however, has brought the strongest warning yet, as CNN reports that more and more polar bears are resorting to cannibalism to survive. For many, the endangerment of any species is sufficient cause for concern and action. Even those who don’t place a priority on polar bears have cause for concern, however, as the elimination of a major species, particularly a predator at the top of its food chain, has unpredictable effects on the larger ecosystem around them.

What we must take away from this, however, is that the desperation inherent in a major species’ shift toward cannibalism is indicative of much larger problems. The rate at which the ice caps are melting is now more serious than in many previous scenarios and should resonate as a call for action on the issue of climate change. In the coming weeks the Green Team here will be ratcheting up its efforts to help the office go green and increase awareness of actions we can take to be better stewards of our environment. Please continue the things we’ve already started and keep on generating ideas so that we can combat this problem as swiftly and strongly as possible, so that we can prevent this crisis.

FYI

It is National Emergency Preparedness Month

I will provide some more details for you later.

But for now, just take a look at this. I learned of this program today at a lecture I got to attend about bioterrorism preparedness. Very, very interesting.

The Hits Just Keep on Coming

Dear Joe Biden,

Shut the hell up.

Love,
America

The most comforting face available?

How has the Treasury Department not found a better comforting face in a time of crisis? Paulson always looks defeated, usually seems to be ten seconds from crying, and often says unnerving things that create turmoil around the world. Part of this appearance is that he is trying to be a leader in what appears to be one of the worst recessions in this country's history, but something has to be said for getting a soothing face with fewer worry-lines as the face of the government's efforts to stem the downfall of the economy.

Obama's New Ad (Wishful)

Obama: Hello, this is Barack Obama. There's been a lot of discussion in the last month about John McCain's running mate, Governor Palin. We've seen a lot of angry statements come from both sides, and even accusations of sexism. As I've said in the past, Governor's Palin family and her responsibilities as a mother should not be up for discussion in this campaign.

But the American people do need to question the governor's judgment when it comes to policy. And so I ask you the people, where does Governor Palin differ from the failed policies of the current administration? Is there even one issue on which Sarah Palin and George Bush don't agree? By choosing Sarah Palin to join him on his ticket, John McCain has showed us yet again that he doesn't stand for change, he stands for more of the same.

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

Biden Criticizes Obama Ad

Are you kidding me?! Christ, maybe we should withdraw this guy.

Barack's Been Lying

Here's the tough part: I can't decide if I care.

Not That You Need It

But this is a good article on Palin.

Worst State Ever: Alaska quickly narrows South Carolina's lead

Ah, the sweet smell of racism on a summer's day. The tender breeze that flows by calms and soothes. An unspoken understanding amongst neighbors. One of the last places in the country where a hard-working man could take his family to see a neighborhood lynching down at the old oak tree. And of course that glorious banner, the proud symbol a sweet time long past, the Flag of the Confederacy.

Yes, South Carolina is a woeful shame of a state, there is no doubt about it. You know their education system has got to be fantastic, they've got some of the lowest dental premiums in the country (trust me), and in 220 years, they've only given us one thing we were thankful for.

Yet the first seceder's reign as America's worst state is in jeopardy folks, as the keep-to-itself state of Alaska - formerly in the mid-teens of America's worst - has surged forward, threatening the dominance of the Palmetto State (no, I didn't look that up.)

On July 29, 2008, the great state of Alaska felt ashamed when Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican senator, was indicted on corruption charges. With his famous bridge to nowhere quickly becoming more and more infamous, Alaskans were turning. Senator Stevens' bid for re-election would have to come to an end and with the charges announced, polls showed the race was over for Uncle Ted (no relation to Uncle Sam or Uncle Tom).

But things would change. On August 29, 2008, Stevens' good friend and future grandmother Sarah Palin was announced as John McCain's running mate. The time for divisive politics was over. The time for mooseburgers in the White House had come.



And so, just as soon as Stevens' poll numbers had crashed quicker than the 2008 1929 stock market, they rose again with Palin's VP announcement. The Senate race in Alaska is again close. Close as well, is the race for the nation's worst state.