September 30, 2008

Senate Race Master Thread

Same as EV Master Thread
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3 comments:

  1. ChrisSeptember 30, 2008 11:34 AM

    September 26, 2008
    2008 Senate Election

    So, I've spent my time, and quite a bit of it, discussing the presidential election. I figured it was probably about time to report on what I'm seeing in the Senate (there's a House update coming too, but 51 states for president and 35 states for senate are both way easier than the 435 races in the House).

    Quick overview:
    Democratic held seats: 39
    Republican held seats: 26
    Up for election: 35 (12 D, 23 R)

    You may recall that 2006 was a remarkable election because Democrats captured the Senate even though nearly all the races were for seats already held by Democrats. This year, clearly, the opposite is true and the Republicans are in big trouble.

    All of the currently held Dem seats are safe (AR, DE, IA, IL, LA, MA, MI, MT, RI, SD, and WV) except for NJ, but that is very close to being safe as well.

    The Republicans will hold 13 safely (AL, GA, ID, KS, ME, MS-2, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, WY-1, and WY-2). Note that MS and WY are both holding special elections this year.

    So the "Safe" Senate is Democrats 53, Republicans 39.

    The Democrats have a majority locked up and they know it, so their sights are set on the unlikely filibuster-proof 60-seat majority.

    They are currently moderately ahead in AK (though we saw a few days ago this is slipping), CO, and NH. These seats aren't safe, but they're reasonable to hold in the (D) column for now. Also, despite some initial hiccups, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell now appears headed for re-election. D 56, R 40.

    So assuming Dems hold on to their leads, they need to pick up the four remaining races. After some nice polling today, NC Senator Elizabeth Dole (yes, she's his wife) has seen her once-insurmountable lead be surmounted. She still has a narrow lead in my average, but there is a clear trend toward Democrat Kay Hagan, and shrewd Senatorial strategist Chuck Schumer has plenty of cash to spend on her. NC is a tossup with a possible Dem trend.

    In Oregon the story is basically the same, except the Republican incumbent enjoyed a smaller initial lead, but the Democratic trend, while existent, is less pronounced. Oregon is a tossup, but less likely to fall into the 'D' column because Obama won't be putting the same resources into Oregon that he will be in North Carolina.

    Minnesota's race is the most interesting, with freshman senator Norm Coleman trying to hold his seat against Al Franken. The self-proclaimed "only New York Jew in this Minnesota Senate Race who was raised in Minnesota" is having difficulties narrowing the gap on Coleman. Minnesota leans R.

    Finally, Mississippi Senate appointee Roger Wicker, who filled the spot left by Trent Lott's resignation, has had difficulty fending off Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove, though Wicker has been pulling away recently. Mississippi 1 leans R.

    So that's that. The Democrats will cruise to 54 seats and could easily end up with 56. To get to 57 will be difficult, however, and 60, while possible, seems pretty unlikely.

    The four closest races:
    Minnesota - R +3.96
    Mississippi 1 - R +5.63
    North Carolina - R +1.89
    Oregon - R + 1.24

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  2. ChrisOctober 15, 2008 9:59 AM

    October 15, 2008
    Senate Election Update

    We've seen some interesting structural changes in the Senate race in the last few weeks. Most of the background is in the previous comment so I'll cut to the chase.

    The "Safe" count is now Dem 53 Rep 38 (was 53-39) after some quick tightening in the Georgia race.

    CO and NH both gave Dems scares for a minute, but with the economic downturn, they're pretty safe. 55-38.

    That leaves 7 seats and the Democrats need 5 for the 60-seat "supermajority." Democrats have made big gains in North Carolina and Oregon, and with Ted Stevens trial coming up, I'd say Alaska tilts Democrat as well, probably bringing it to 58-38.

    The last four are tough to call. Republicans have healthy leads in GA and KY but they are slimming quickly as well. They also hold a slight lead in MS. Minnesota remains a tossup, where the already-brutal battle between Norm Coleman and Al Franken has been complicated by Independent Dean Barkley, who is polling around 20%.

    So today I would say that we are looking at 58-41 with one true-coin-flip toss up.

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  3. ChrisOctober 28, 2008 11:08 AM

    October 28, 2008

    I'll be brief because there's not a lot to say.

    Ted Stevens' conviction brings the Dems to 56 Safe seats. NC and OR have little chance of flipping, bringing them to 58.

    Al Franken has the slightest of slight leads in MN, but Nate is of the opinion that when third-party candidate Dean Barkley fails to see his 20% materialize at the polls, more of those votes will go Dem. Call it 59.

    The Democrats will probably, though not definitely, win 59 seats. Getting to 60 is much more difficult.

    They have three possible routes.
    (1) Win the special election in Mississippi, where Roger Wicker (R) is ahead by 2.71 on seven consecutive polls dating back to May.
    (2) Unseat Georgian senator and Spawn of Satan Saxby Chambliss, who is enjoying a 3.89 pt lead and hasn't trailed in a single poll all year, though the 16-pt lead he had in September and the 20-pt lead from June are fond memories for him.
    (3) Defeat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Obama probably has no ground game in a state that spanked him in the primaries and has no hopes of turning blue. McConnell's lead looked weak for a period, but he has rebounded to a 4.43 pt lead and hasn't trailed a poll since May.

    60 seats looks like quite the fantasy. And the kicker is that normally I'd place my money on Georgia because Obama may have a serious ground game there, but if no candidate wins a majority it goes to a runoff election, where Obama will have no impact (though his money may help).

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