September 29, 2008

House Race Master Thread

This will be my main thread for posting about elections in the U.S. House of Representatives

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September 29, 2008:


October 22, 2008: (sorry it got flip-turned upside-down)
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2 comments:

  1. ChrisOctober 01, 2008 3:16 PM

    September 29, 2008
    House Update

    My House spreadsheet is still kind of crude (435 individual races don't build themselves into a spreadsheet), but I'm prepared to offer some insight:

    (See image on main post)

    Basically, the only story is that Democrats are on their way to a solid majority in the House. However, it is also significant that "Safe Dems" alone would control majorities in 24 states (for the Republicans, this is only true in 12, effectively putting 14 states "in play"), so even with the most marginal gains outside of the "safe" category, the number of state delegations would favor Democrats in November, and Barack Obama would win an electoral tie.

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  2. ChrisOctober 22, 2008 3:42 PM

    The sheet is still crude but tightening up quickly. Nonetheless, mistakes that were present were generally a wash, and so not a lot changed, really.

    Some things did change. I've moved 18 races into the Safe column (there are still way too many I haven't whittled down yet). Plus, there has been a lot of pro-Democratic movement across the board, with even some established Republicans holding on to their political lives. The main problem is that nearly all polling is commissioned by one of the candidates or their parties, so getting objective information is particularly tough. Hopefully I narrow it down a little more and then be able to take a real in-depth look.

    We do have some exciting news, though. Not that it really matters with the Electoral College going the way it is, but Democrats now seem very well poised to hold the most state delegations in the House. Democrats have 23 states listed as "Safe" with another 4 listed as "Strong," compared with 9 Safe and 5 Strong for the Republicans.

    In individual house races, it looks like newcomer Ethan Berkowitz will be taking down Alaska's representative of 35 years, Don Young. Young narrowly eked out a primary win over a Republican who was heavily favored over Democrat Berkowitz, so it looks like the AK Republicans really shot themselves in the foot on that one.

    There's only been one poll in FL-16 since it came out that Tim Mahoney was involved in a sex scandal - ironic as he was elected to replace Mark Foley, who went down in a sex scandal. Even though the news probably didn't have time to make it into the poll, it looks like the Republicans will be capitalizing on this seat.

    Yeah, that's all I feel like writing.

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