October 17, 2008

How much have states been polled?

Nevermind the absolute meanings of the numbers, all that matters is what they are relative to each other. Are the most important states being polled the most?

And if anyone knows enough HTML to get these huge spaces to go away, I'm all ears.


StatePolling Strength
Florida14.24
Ohio13.17
Pennsylvania9.22
North Carolina9.09
Virginia9.05
Colorado7.62
Missouri7.01
Georgia6.98
Minnesota5.57
Michigan5.26
Wisconsin4.90
New Mexico4.83
California4.70
Nevada4.48
Oregon4.48
New Hampshire4.12
New Jersey4.03
Indiana3.89
Massachusetts3.52
New York3.46
Iowa2.96
Washington2.85
North Dakota2.66
South Carolina2.33
Alabama2.14
Oklahoma2.09
Connecticut2.05
Texas1.99
Delaware1.98
Kansas1.88
West Virginia1.76
Mississippi1.68
Illinois1.49
Alaska1.49
Montana1.47
Wyoming1.41
Kentucky1.29
Vermont1.26
Maine1.07
Tennessee0.90
Arizona0.70
Nebraska0.58
Louisiana0.43
Rhode Island0.41
Maryland0.40
Arkansas0.40
Hawaii0.36
Idaho0.33
Utah0.26
South Dakota0.24
District of Columbia0.08

McCain, Obama actually funny at event

If you haven't seen these they're worth watching. Note that each of them does boring pleasantries for the final 3-4 minutes of their respective routines.

McCain One and Two
Obama One and Two

High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute

Story

So, my understanding is that what is at issue here is a big issue. In states throughout the country, most notably Ohio and Florida, Republicans are doing their best to ensure that new voter registrations must match either current state DMV records or current federal Social Security records.

Not a bad idea in theory, but if Bartholomew registers as Bart, my understanding is his application is eligible for rejection. And have you seen your driver's license number? I know it's tough to imagine someone who's job entails keying in that information off of applications to possibly make a mistake, but that would also invalidate your application.

In fairness to the GOP, I'd be pretty pissed if Mickey Mouse got to vote.

Link Dump Repository

Ok, so I sincerely doubt that I have the best ideas about how to go about this, but I think everyone is in agreement (Bart and I spoke briefly on the topic) that we should have a consolidated link resource. So I've taken all the links posted (tagged with "links") and listed them here (I took out a few of my own) and tried to organize them.

If anyone has better ideas of how to go about this, be bold. And remember, anyone can edit any post, as far as I know, so we won't have to go through the comments page, you can just edit this post directly.

Also, theoretically a link can be posted under multiple categories (like Gmail's "labels") but I didn't want to do that without consultation.

Also, I'm not sure how to signal updates to the list because even for me updating the date in the upper right corner is tedious, plus this format constrains discussions.

Humor:
Disappointing Map of America (10/14)
I Witnessed a Murder Today (10/14)
The funniest thing I've ever read about taking a shit (10/03)
Fake tape of McCain terrified by Palin presidency (10/03)
Obama pretends to punch McCain (10/03)
Colbert on Huck/Rudy/Palin @ RNC (first five minutes) (10/03)
Fake Disney Trailer: Hockey mom becomes VP (10/03)
McCain '08, Palin '09 (10/03)
Self-described "Colbert's best Athiest moments" (10/03)
Palin's got that "Bridge to Nowhere" speech down (09/18)
Bush or Batman? (09/12)
Matt Damon on Sarah Palin (09/11)
Garfield Minus Garfield (09/07)
The Nietzsche Family Circus (09/07)
Japanese Mario Fan Art (09/07)
Russian Mario (09/07)
Bowser's Minions (09/07)
Fiscal conservatives (comic)
Peter's Evil Overlord List

Political:

Amusing, but Not Funny, Bob Herbert (10/14)
Conservative Kathleen Parker opposes Palin (10/14)
New Yorker on Joe Biden (10/13)
Wall Street Journal on Obama's tax cuts (10/13)
Obama's tax cuts don't add up (10/10)
Obama will be great president, Frank Schaeffer (10/09)
More conservative love for Obama, David Brooks (10/08)
That One '08 (10/08)
You bought one hell of a party for AIG (10/08)
New website gets my hopes up by tracking the NPVIC (Wiki) (10/08)
Cindy McCain: Obama's is "dirtiest campaign in history" (10/08)
Lessons Learned from Information Sharing (10/07)
Bradley Effect (10/06)
Don't worry about Bradley Effect (10/06)
Obamanomics (10/03)
George "Macaca" Allen heads GOP Minority Outreach program (09/18)
Offshore Drilling is not the answer, NYT (09/11)
Biden responds to RNC (09/05)

Utility:
Free statistical software (10/03)
Another Pandora? (10/03)

Technology:
New morphing drone to be based on pterodactyl (Wiki) (10/08)
Dude designs like, totally futuristic cities and stuff (10/03)

Sports:
Hahahahaha Cubs Suck (10/06)

Other:
Marching band goes all video-gamey (10/03)
Gauss is so awesome (09/05)

News:
NYC bottles tap water (09/18)
Google moves data sites offshore, avoids regulation (09/15)

Mathematics:
Free statistical software (10/03)
Benford's Law (Statistics) (10/03)

Religion:

Sort of Interesting Quiz

Prioritize your issues, give your opinions, read which candidates are similar to you.

I'll leave my scores as a comment.

Being An Adult, 3.0

First, we terrified you with gruesome market horror stories in Episode I.

But then, we came back, and showed you a mortifying tale in Episode II.

As John McCain once said: If you think it's bad now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.


Previous episodes were on 9/17 and 9/30

And yes, it's true that if I'd put all this money in the mattress except for one payment, which I lit on fire and threw in the trash, I'd be richer.

Update: OK, so I just did the math. Since 9/18 one month ago, I've lost $511.01. At a 0% rate of return since 9/18, I would be at $2,880.00, instead I'm at $2,368.99.

Now There's A Thought

When you wake up on the morning of January 20, 2017, I'd say there's a better than 50-50 chance that Barack Obama is still the president. Just soak that in for a second.

October 16, 2008

Think It's Real?

Apparently Sarah Palin has more in common with W. than I thought.



Update: Creepy. I got an email saying that this post had been posted. When I clicked on it, the ad showing in my Gmail read "Sarah Palin's IQ is 120." (It was an ad for an online IQ test)

Irish Bookie Pays Out on Obama Bets

Told you that there was little reason to worry. This guy's already paying off as if the election was over.

McCain Can't Catch a Break

Just rumors at this point, but Joe the Plumber may be related to Charles Keating.

What are the odds? There's no hard fact at this point and after I saw something about this on Wikipedia I just linked to the first thing that came up when I googled it, so the Daily Kos article I linked to is pretty poor. Nonetheless, bad news for McCain if it's true.

Um...what?

McCain on abortion, at last night's debate:

"Just again, the example of the eloquence of Sen. Obama. He's health for the mother. You know, that's been stretched by the pro-abortion movement in America to mean almost anything. That's the extreme pro-abortion position, quote, 'health.'"

I mean, I know what he's saying - that, if Roe v Wade was struck down, making exceptions for "the health and life of the woman" presents a gray area, and that he views it as a pro-choice (NOT "pro-abortion," John) last-ditch effort to make abortion available - but I think he worded it really poorly. To me, it drives home the point that so many pro-lifers come off as valuing a woman's life less than driving down the number of abortions.

State Offices in Swing States

Work in progress. Using Wikipedia, the VA and WV Supreme Courts were not worth tracking down. NC's justices are elected by popular vote in "non-partisan" ways.

Also, for Supreme Courts, party affiliation reflects the party of the official who appointed the justice (typically Governor), not necessary the justice's own views.













StateGovLt GovSec/StateAtt GenSC (D)SC (R)
CODemDemRepRep52
VADemRepDemRep
FLRepRepRepRep52
MORepRepDemDem43
NVRepRepDemDem16
OHDemDemDemDem16
NCDemDemDemDem
INRepRepRepRep32
WVDemNoneRepDem

the aftermath

Katie, I think you especially will appreciate this well-crafted euphemism (in bold below) employed by NYT in its article "Candidates Clash Over Character and Policy":

"At times showing anger and at others a methodical determination to make all his points, Mr. McCain pressed his Democratic rival on taxes, spending, the tone of the campaign and his association with the former Weather Underground leader William Ayers, using nearly every argument at his disposal in an effort to alter the course of a contest that has increasingly gone Mr. Obama’s way."

Methodical determination? How about repeating the same disputed points over and over again while Obama attempted to clarify and defend his policies?

Yes, I thought McCain had to reach for "the kitchen sink and the plumber" to try to make his points in this one.

October 15, 2008

Wow, Massachusetts.

I couldn't help but comment - there is generally a pretty loose correlation between a state's red/blue identity for presidential elections, and how it votes when it comes to Senators/Representatives/State Offices. But each of Massachusetts' 10 districts are rated "Safe Democrat," with only two representatives who have served fewer than 10 years in Congress. Even in the most partisan of states, a clean sweep like this is never seen.

Why I am giving up on John McCain

I know, right? I'm not for John McCain - it's tough to believe. But while I often mindlessly ramble about this sort of thing, this is something I really mean, and am really serious about.

I've said over and over that when it comes to Republicans, John McCain is about as good as they come. He does have a record of true bipartisanship in some areas, he once considered becoming a Democrat, and he's an all-around good guy. He's not the smartest guy ever and didn't demonstrate particular proficiency during his military career, but he really did act with honor amid circumstances under which no one is able to say for sure whether they could act so nobly. When it comes to policy his (long-term) record really does differ significantly from President Bush. Plus, in these economic times, it's tough to push the button for a Democrat pushing larger increases in government spending and smaller net tax cuts.

Because of Barack Obama, John McCain never had a chance at my vote this year. But if it were Kerry against McCain, I can't say for sure I'd color my ballot blue. It would depend on circumstance.

But I believe there's finally enough evidence to say for sure what many of Obama's supporters have said for some time - the old John McCain is gone.

We appear to be in a once-in-a-generation crisis. It's a situation that calls for leadership of historic proportions. It's a situation that calls for politics to take a back burner, and for us to put Country First. That John McCain has juxtaposed these actions with that slogan makes this all the more painful. You see, John McCain is the underdog in this election, and he's playing the underdog playbook pretty well.

But everything from the Palin pick to the attack ads to the unwillingness to tell his radical rally supporters to shut up shows that, for even the slightest chance at a comeback in the election, John McCain is willing to take the country down with him as he slides into defeat, at a time when we need unity more than ever. When he raises Bill Ayres, when Palin speaks of pallin', all they do divide us when we need to be united. All they do is increase distrust for the future president. All they do is make the job of repairing our problems that much more difficult.

The glory of the Old McCain is he was one of the few guys in Washington you could count on to never do exactly what he's doing. And that's why I've finally lost faith in John McCain.

I Hate Dick Morris

The guy regularly lives up to his first name. A former Clinton advisor, he now spends his days on FOX News insinuating about Obama's background.

Today he's come out with his electoral map. Oddly, it shows an Obama landslide, but only a crazy one, with Barack picking up Arizona and Tennessee. Dick Morris, I don't know what you're up to, but I still hate you.

October 14, 2008

Quick Link

*sighs*

Here's another one worth reading.

I <3 Bob Herbert

This is a great, if somewhat unspecific, op-ed regarding the lack of common sense in the campaign and country right now. A quick, refreshing read.


Amusing, but Not Funny

Another article John McCain won't read...

We have all made jokes about McCain's unfamiliarity with the Internet, but this article may be the best yet. Not only does this call into question his current decision-making abilities (i.e. this crazy bastard chooses to avoid the Internet), but also his potential for improvement (or at least some form of stop-loss on brainpower) in the future.

The 2008 Voter Turnout Measurement Problem

... just got more complicated.

I hypothesize that with everything we already know about the enthusiasm gap for each party this year, Obama's holding a clear lead in the polls would depress turnout on the Republican side ("we're gonna lose anyway") without having a similar effect on the Democratic side ("I don't care how much it looks like we're gonna win by, we aren't taking any chances this year"). The strength of Obama's ground game (a gamble in some senses) will be of critical interest to future political strategists; the actual effects, however, could be rather difficult to determine.

It's Time to Celebrate!

With a pair of glimmering Quinnipiac polls showing Obama up by 9 points in Colorado, the objective portion of my model has moved Colorado into the "safe" column in my objective table (the one I've been posting is the subjective one, though the numeric lead listed is not). As far as I'm concerned, you can take this as the end of the election.

Update: I posted a new chart for Colorado, but left the old one up, just for comparison.

I was for her before I was against her

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker the latest to turn her back on Sarah Palin.

October 13, 2008

Eh, I'm bored.

ALL POINTS BULLETIN

Holy crap. If there's an ounce of truth to this the election is over now no matter what happens.

Update: Missouri moves from McCain +1.4 to Obama +1.3 in my model. There hasn't been much polling in Missouri lately so this poll is weighted too heavily (in everyone's model, btw) so look closely for new polling in the state.

Two Obama articles worth reading

New Yorker on Joe Biden
Wall Street Journal on Obama's tax cuts

New Pollan article

I haven't had a chance to read it yet, but this week the NYT Magazine leads with an article by Michael Pollan about what the next president should do with regards to food in the USA.

My friends ...

"... we've got them just where we want them."

Campaign FAIL

EV Scorecard, 10/13

It doesn't work so well as a comment on the Master Thread, so here we go:

A new grammar debate: the serial comma.

Background information.

I would like a bit more arguing on this site, as we tend to agree on politics, the de facto topic of choice for this blog. To that end, I am curious to hear opinions on use of the serial comma. I am strongly in favor of the serial comma as the standard rather than the exception because it is the least likely form to lead to ambiguity. I will even go one step beyond this and argue that in the cases in which the serial comma would lead to ambiguity the sentence should be rephrased, as it is clearly confusing in its current form.

In case you would like to hear a song about the serial comma, check out "Oxford Comma" by Vampire Weekend. The band sounds like a strange combination of Peter Gabriel, The Police, and Paul Simon. Perfect time to use the serial comma.

Update: As it turns out, this is the 100th post on this site. Way to go, everyone. Chris, thanks for keeping this going when the rest of us slack off. I don't know about everyone else, but I appreciate the updates even when I am not posting regularly.

Holy 50%, Batman!

Sweet. Obama's finally polling at 50% over at RCP. To get an idea of how painful it's been to watch for this, click and drag on the graph such that only October's polling is showing. It's been a long wait.

But, as I've said before, hitting 50% in a polling average typically means it's all but over, barring the ole October surprise, which most commentators (and I agree) seem to think already happened with the stock market. Ask yourself the question: if they caught bin Laden today, do you think McCain could actually pull it out? I'm skeptical.

Paul Krugman, Really?

I'll not say much since this is probably a topic you guys have thoughts on, but let me just say that based on the times I've seen him on TV, I wouldn't have guessed Paul Krugman was Nobel Prize kinda stuff. I hold him in pretty mediocre regard, really.