Are You Kidding Me?!

OK, so this isn't her fault, but I can still be angry.

Last night Sarah Palin dropped a ceremonial first puck at an NHL game for the second time. After getting the usual treatment from the ever-unfriendly crowd in Philadelphia two weeks ago, this time she found herself in much friendlier St. Louis, where the Blues were hosting the Kings.

Unfortunately, as the Blues' all-star goaltender Manny Legace (pronounced legacy) stepped out onto the ice before the game, an official accidentally shifted the carpet laid out for Governor Palin and Legace fell, resulting in a minor hip injury.

Legace is out tonight, but the Blues are up 3-0 in the waning moments of the second period. He should be back for next Thursday's game against the poorly-named Carolina Hurricanes. Nevertheless, Sarah Palin continues to ruin everything she's associated with.

UPDATE: Five minutes into the third period, and just over four periods into his career (and on the way to a shutout in his first career start), Blues backup Ben Bishop has left the game with an injury. Fan-freakin'-tastic.

What if the whole world could vote in the USA election?

The Economist posted an interesting applet that shows how each country of the world is leaning in the upcoming election.

PoliticsHome Presidential Jury Panel

I'm not exactly sure what this is going to turn out to be, but I'm gonna give it a shot.  It'll be a ten-minute survey each week evaluating the new president.  Just passing the word.

I'm leaving, but ...

I just wanted to say real quick: doesn't Bloomberg's battle for a third-term end any hopes he has of the presidency, and perhaps governor and other such offices. I can't imagine a presidential opponent wouldn't make this power grab a huge issue. But I'm outta here.

Weekend Update: 11 Days to Go

(My 100th post)

Click on the image to view full size.

The reason Indiana seems out of place is that its polling has been quite erratic, I've heard little about Obama's ground game there, and it's polling strength is the weakest of any state on the list from Missouri to North Carolina.

Actually, interestingly NV, MO, and IN are nearly identical in their polling strength, which is far weaker than that of OH, FL, and NC, which are also nearly identical.

I have two October polls for North Dakota and nineteen for North Carolina.

Grammar Time

"After nearly two years of a grueling and ugly campaign, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has proved that he is the right choice to be the 44th president of the United States."

-New York Times

OK, so basically my understanding was that you can say "Barack Obama proved ..." or "Barack Obama has proven," but not "has proved." Am I crazy?

(Side note: I want to have a discussion about quotation marks and commas sometime)

Also, now that I've been staring at the word 'proven' for the last two minutes, my brain is now quite sure I can't possibly be spelling it right. Really stare at that and try to convince yourself it's pronounced the way it is (then again, maybe it's just the font that is used when you create a post).

*************************

Here's another question, one on which I'm sure I'll run into some opposition. So, the conventional wisdom is that if you're discussing a noun that begins with a vowel, you precede it with "an" as opposed to "a," as in "an obligation."

But my understanding is that whether it begins with a vowel is irrelevant; it's whether it begins with a vowel sound. I guess this distinction isn't directly important to my point, which was going to be that I can't stand hearing the phrase "an historical," as in, "from an historical perspective."

Perhaps if you live in England, where "I have to hunt to be happy" turns into "I 'ave to 'unt to be 'appy" you could say an historical, but otherwise, my understanding is it's just plain wrong. Nonetheless, it's something I hear very well-educated people say on a regular basis, so again, maybe I'm missing something. Thoughts?

I'm reverting some of the changes (UPDATED)

I just don't like them, and the "reactions" don't seem to be working anyhow. Feel free to tinker with anything you'd like though.

Update:
Did you know when creating a post, if you hit the "show all" button after the line where you enter labels it will show you all the labels used thus far? 'Cuz I didn't.

I know, I know, I shouldn't let this stuff bother me...

During last night's NBC News interview with Brian Williams:

WILLIAMS: Who is a member of the elite?

PALIN: Oh, I guess just people who think that they're better than anyone else. And-- John McCain and I are so committed to serving every American. Hard-working, middle-class Americans who are so desiring of this economy getting put back on the right track. And winning these wars. And America's starting to reach her potential. And that is opportunity and hope provided everyone equally. So anyone who thinks that they are-- I guess-- better than anyone else, that's-- that's my definition of elitism.

WILLIAMS: So it's not education? It's not income-based? It's--

PALIN: Anyone who thinks that they're better than someone else.

WILLIAMS: --a state of mind? It's not geography?

PALIN: 'Course not.

WILLIAMS: Senator?

MCCAIN: I-- I know where a lot of 'em live. (LAUGH)

WILLIAMS: Where's that?

MCCAIN: Well, in our nation's capital and New York City. I've seen it. I've lived there. I know the town. I know-- I know what a lot of these elitists are. The ones that she never went to a cocktail party with in Georgetown. I'll be very frank with you. Who think that they can dictate what they believe to America rather than let Americans decide for themselves.

*

Firstly: Fuck you, John.

Secondly: Sounds like the 9/11 terrorists really screwed up attacking the two outposts of "fake America," huh? We probably shouldn't have even bothered picking up the pieces downtown, as the centers of this country's government and finance clearly don't matter as much as off-the-radar mining towns.

Thirdly: I don't know anyone in New York or DC who wants to "dictate what they believe to America rather than let Americans decide for themselves." In fact, I think that most of us would rather McCain, Palin and their friends kept what they believe about our bodies, our significant others, and our money to themselves and let us decide for ourselves.

Fourthly: Does anyone work at that campaign? Is elitism geographic or not? Get your stories straight.

Let Me Be Very Clear: This Election Is Over (UPDATED)

(Addition is at the bottom)

There are a lot of people making a lot of predictions about this election. What gives me more clout than everybody else? Nothing. But hey, I am the only kid you know tracking this stuff on a spreadsheet everyday.

McCain got his ass kicked yesterday. Excuse the French, but if I were a McCain supporter, yesterday is the day I would have finally admitted to myself that there is no chance.

The University of Wisconsin, whose track record gives me nothing to worry about (a month ago they had Obama up by 1 in WI and tied in MN) showed Obama with big leads, which I've listed here, followed by Kerry's margin of victory in 2004:

State	Obama	Kerry
Iowa	13	-1
Illinois	30	10
Indiana	10	-21
Michigan	22	3
Minnesota	19	4
Ohio	12	-2
Pennsylvania	10	3
Wisconsin	12	1

These numbers are huge. It's an average increase of 16 pts over Bush's numbers. You know how close the 2004 election was, and in that election huge states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all came down to the wire, though they all went for Kerry (plus Ohio, which went for Bush). To see those Kerry states not even be a worry is great for peace of mind, but better for campaign spending allocations. McCain pulling out of Michigan meant he was free to spend money on other states, but it also meant Obama was free to spend money on other states, too. But now I'm rambling; let's get back to the point.

Obama's core of 286 is still intact, with Colorado (Obama +5.3) remaining the closest state in the set. With leads of >2 pts, Obama has all but locked up Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Missouri and Indiana also give him leads of more than 2 points but have seen less polling, and Florida is just a whisper away. This all adds up to 375 EVs.

I list 160 of McCain's 163 EVs as safe, with an epic Obama ground game possibly giving him a shot at North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, or West Virginia. But Obama pulled most of his resources out of the first three a while back, and never really invested in West Virginia.

I'd say of the 375 EVs listed above, Indiana is Obama's toughest battle. But make no mistake, he's got 364 all but locked up. I'd estimate he does finish at 375, but it's still a little early for exact predicitons.

***********************************************

So, that means Obama's going to win in a landslide, right? Well, depends how you define landslide. It turns out that, looking at elections from a historical perspective, close elections are the exception and not the rule. Bush failed to win 300 EVs twice. Going back, the last times that happened were Jimmy Carter (1976), Woodrow Wilson (1916), and William McKinley (1900) - when there were only 447 total EVs.

So for reference, here's a list of electoral vote totals from past elections:

Year	President	EVs	Out Of
1788	George Washington	69	69
1792	George Washington	132	132
1796	John Adams	71	139
1800	Thomas Jefferson	73	138
1804	Thomas Jefferson	162	176
1808	James Madison	122	175
1812	James Madison	128	217
1816	James Monroe	183	217
1820	James Monroe	228	231
1824	John Quincy Adams	84	261
1828	Andrew Jackson	178	261
1832	Andrew Jackson	219	286
1836	Martin Van Buren	170	294
1840	William Henry Harrison	234	294
1844	James K. Polk	170	275
1848	Zachary Taylor	163	290
1852	Franklin Pierce	254	296
1856	James Buchanan	174	296
1860	Abraham Lincoln	180	303
1864	Abraham Lincoln	212	233
1868	Ulysses S. Grant	217	294
1872	Ulysses S. Grant	286	352
1876	Rutherford B. Hayes	185	369
1880	James A. Garfield	214	369
1884	Grover Cleveland	219	401
1888	Benjamin Harrison	233	401
1892	Grover Cleveland	277	444
1896	William McKinley	271	447
1900	William McKinley	292	447
1904	Theodore Roosevelt	336	476
1908	William Howard Taft	321	483
1912	Woodrow Wilson	438	531
1916	Woodrow Wilson	277	531
1920	Warren G. Harding	404	531
1924	Calvin Coolidge	382	531
1928	Herbert Hoover	444	531
1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	472	531
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	523	531
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	449	531
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	432	531
1948	Harry S. Truman	303	531
1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	442	531
1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	457	531
1960	John F. Kennedy	303	537
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	486	538
1968	Richard Nixon	301	538
1972	Richard Nixon	520	538
1976	Jimmy Carter	297	538
1980	Ronald Reagan	489	538
1984	Ronald Reagan	525	538
1988	George H. W. Bush	426	538
1992	Bill Clinton	370	538
1996	Bill Clinton	379	538
2000	George W. Bush	271	538
2004	George W. Bush	286	538

Update:
In 1824 John Quincy Adams became president even though Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more electoral votes.

In 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency even though his opponent Samuel J. Tilden received a majority of the popular vote.

In 1888 Benjamin Harrison ended Grover Cleveland's bid for re-election even though Cleveland won a plurality of the popular vote. Cleveland of course won his third bid for the presidency in the following election, making him the second of three presidents to win a plurality of the national popular vote three times (after Andrew Jackson, before Franklin Roosevelt).

In 2000 - well, let's just not go there.

you guys may have already seen or read about this - it was a little while ago - but it's great speech by labor leader and former AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka about Obama, race, and labor unions. Trumka's a really fascinating guy anyway...

http://blip.tv/file/1327725

Breaking News: MN-06

(If nothing special happens, then the title of this post is a link to the story in question)

McCarthy-wannabe Michele Bachmann just got the smackdown from the GOP. Even though she is ahead in a non-safe race, they've pulled all their ad money from her. I doubt they want her to lose so much as want to distance themselves from her, but even then. Wow. Never heard of this before.

Why McCain Will Lose

I mean, seriously. Just look at those last three pictures.

New Features

I'm playing around with "Blogger in Draft," so if you see some new features or something that looks funky, don't worry. Feel free to play around with it yourself.

Update: The "reactions" thing would be a cool idea if you could change it on a post-by-post basis.

Where Do You Get Your News?

I've got a variety of reasons for asking, but I'm looking to improve on my news sources a bit. There's the political ones, and typically I used Yahoo for general news because it was sufficient without doing anything wrong. Well now it's ugly as hell, and I'd like some help.

Here, I'll start. I tend to mostly go to RCP, HuffPo, and Drudge. A few others here and there, but that's the bulk of it (mostly because of the election).

pretty cool

courtesy of 30reasons.org

McCain's Best Strategy

Look, let's face it. John McCain is starting down the barrel of an electoral gun. You're his campaign manager. What are you going to do?

First of all, for two months McCain should have been making sure that America knew it was McCain-Palin against Obama-Wright. Or Wright-Obama. Take your pick.

But beyond that, it's clear now that the Sarah Palin pick is disastrous. She's now quite unpopular and, at $150,000, rather expensive. C'mon Maverick, grow some nads. Drop Sarah Palin.

Now, unfortunately the religious extremist joining McCain on the ticket has really excited the base. Were it a month ago McCain could go back and pick Lieberman or Ridge and still pass Electoral Politics 101. But it's not a month ago.

However, something happened in the last month: an epic economic meltdown. If only there was a VP candidate who frames himself as strong on the economy and a staunch conservative. I know it's brash; I know it's extreme. But John McCain has no options left. Mitt Romney for Vice President.

That's all I've got.

It's Over: Poll Shows Obama Up By 8 Points ...

... on family values!!!

Warren: We're not all that bad

It's been a long campaign, and there is little doubt that the enthusiasm for Obama's campaign is unprecedented in history. Nonetheless, it is Missouri that is solely responsible for record turnout at Obama's rallies, as his 100,000 spectators in St. Louis and 75,000 in Kansas City this past Saturday were a one-day record for his campaign.

And although there was some earlier worry that perhaps there's something wrong with the Show-Me State (if you think about it, it's not that bad of a nickname, really), I'd also like to add that Missouri's polling average has leapfrogged that of nearly every other swing state, and now Obama's lead puts Missouri first in line to be the next "Safe Obama" state.

I mean, seriously. Look how many freakin' people there are:
(And by the way, that's the arch on the right in the top picture)

Because You Should Re-Read It On Occasion

Hey, the first paragraph no longer ends by saying Obama would be the first "affirmative action president"!

Barack Obama - Conservapedia

What the Hell is the McCain Campaign Doing?

I refer you to the chart I posted yesterday. Now, if you start at the bottom and go up, McCain has to get every state up to and including Colorado to win this election (never heard that before ...).

So here's his new strategy. He does have the wisdom and foresight to abandon New Mexico and, yes, Iowa. Believe it or not, Mr. "I'm gonna give you a little straight talk - I oppose ethanol subsidies" McCain isn't going to win Iowa.

I'm sorry. But really?! You guys really figured that out? You're down 12.3 pts as of yesterday, and out of 28 polls in the state, you've been losing in 27 and tied in 1. Why the hell has that campaign spent a single dollar since September in Iowa?

OK, so congratulations, they've finally seen the light. They're abandoning Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. Wait, what?! Yes folks, the McCain campaign is giving up on Colorado.

Now let's look at our chart. If McCain wins all the states up to but not including Colorado, he of course falls short, with 265 EVs. So he's got to pick them up somewhere right?

So, his strategy is (say it quickly in your head), while defending Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, and Georgia, to make a play for Pennsylvania.

I'm sorry for my tone this morning, but I can't for the life of me understand what the hell they're thinking! If I were a Republican I'd be writing things right here that would certainly get me fired from my job. This is much worse than watching Kerry lie down and take those Swift Boat attacks. I mean, I guess they're looking at electoral votes, but come on! If you're going after a state where you're down 9 points why not go all out? You're down 18 in California ... twice the deficit, but more than twice the electoral votes, right?

The bottom line is that in many ways I would have been a better strategist than these loons. McCain took months to try to frame Obama, and finally the best he did was Paris Hilton. He failed Electoral Politics 101 when, after correctly pandering to the right during the primary, he incorrectly continued to pander to the right during the general, the pinnacle of which was one of the most disastrous VP choices in electoral history. With Palin, he failed rule no. 1: Do No Harm. Obama resisted the temptation to choose Hillary because his guys understood rule number one. McCain proceeded to fail on the bailout and fail on the "suspension of his campaign." Finally, he failed in trying to connect Obama to his shady associations, by choosing the third best guy to attack him with (really - you choose Bill Ayers over Rev. Wright and Tony Rezko?). This campaign is over. And even now, as we sit at about 364-174 or so, I still can't help but wonder - why is this election so close?

Plumbing

The New House Race of Interest (Updated)

"What I would say is that the news media should do a penetrating expose and take a look. I wish they would. I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out if they are pro-America or anti-American."

--Michele Bachmann (R-MN-06)


Freshman Congresswomen Michele Bachmann has turned on the overdrive (unfortunately, not my line) and gotten herself into trouble for calling for McCarthy-esque investigations into the patriotism of members of Congress. I'll now be watching her election race very closely. Here's a polling summary up to today, but look for plenty of polls in the near future now:

Public Opinion Strategies (R) - 10/13 - Tinklenberg 33, Bachmann 44
Grove Insight (D) - 10/11 - Tinklenberg 38, Bachmann 42
Grove Insight (D) - 08/20 - Tinklenberg 27, Bachmann 40

Unfortunately all three polls so far are partisan, so it's hard to tell what's going on, although even the Dem polls show Bachmann ahead. My average gives Bachmann a 9-pt lead.

Update:
"When Sarah Palin, herself no stranger to the most vile kind of mudslinging, says that your attacks are beyond the pale, I think you've officially crossed the line by any objective standard."
--Swing State Project

Idiotic Quote of the Day

"Secretary Powell says his endorsement is not about race... OK, fine. I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with."

--Rush Limbaugh, 10/19/08

Electoral Vote Report, 10/20

I've also updated the graphs on the right.

Enjoy:

Heads Up!

RCP, Oct 14 - Obama +8.2
RCP, Oct 20 - Obama +4.8

Can we, yet again, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

(Side note: Obama's quick rise came at a rate of almost exactly 1 pt per 3 days. If he loses 1 pt per 3 days for the 15 days until the election, then McCain would hold a 0.2 pt "lead" over Obama. Of course, this is unlikely without a significant crisis, so don't get too worried.)

Extra side note: I'm sure you've read, but:
Old fundraising record: Barack Obama, 2008 (August) - $66 million
New fundraising record: Barack Obama, 2008 (September) - $150 million.

Keep in mind that September's totals include the $10 or $11 million raised in both the twenty-four hours following the RNC, as well as the quasi-infamous Barbra Streisand dinner.

An Interesting Read

Of course I'd heard of Adam Brinckley (sp?) before, if nowhere else than the Report. He's the guy who, in February 2007, started a blog called "Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President." If nothing else, you gotta give the guy credit for his insight.

Anyway, after he was mentioned on 538 this morning, I decided to stop over and start reading it from early August on through the announcement of the pick. Nothing earth-shattering, but an interesting read nonetheless.

Firefox Add-ons

I am always looking for ways to improve my Internet experience, and to that end I decided to share the list of Firefox add-ons that I use:

DownThemAll- download manager;
Foxmarks- bookmarks synchronizer;
Google Preview- inserts a picture of each webpage into Google or Yahoo search results;
Smart Bookmarks Bar- switches the bookmarks toolbar to icons only;
Tab Mix Plus- tab and tab options manager;
Ubiquity- see earlier post about Ubiquity.

Anyone have any great add-ons I am missing? I feel as if I do not see out new ones often enough, so I will be sharing any new ones I get as I come across them.