Let Me Be Very Clear: This Election Is Over (UPDATED)

(Addition is at the bottom)

There are a lot of people making a lot of predictions about this election. What gives me more clout than everybody else? Nothing. But hey, I am the only kid you know tracking this stuff on a spreadsheet everyday.

McCain got his ass kicked yesterday. Excuse the French, but if I were a McCain supporter, yesterday is the day I would have finally admitted to myself that there is no chance.

The University of Wisconsin, whose track record gives me nothing to worry about (a month ago they had Obama up by 1 in WI and tied in MN) showed Obama with big leads, which I've listed here, followed by Kerry's margin of victory in 2004:

State	Obama	Kerry
Iowa	13	-1
Illinois	30	10
Indiana	10	-21
Michigan	22	3
Minnesota	19	4
Ohio	12	-2
Pennsylvania	10	3
Wisconsin	12	1

These numbers are huge. It's an average increase of 16 pts over Bush's numbers. You know how close the 2004 election was, and in that election huge states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all came down to the wire, though they all went for Kerry (plus Ohio, which went for Bush). To see those Kerry states not even be a worry is great for peace of mind, but better for campaign spending allocations. McCain pulling out of Michigan meant he was free to spend money on other states, but it also meant Obama was free to spend money on other states, too. But now I'm rambling; let's get back to the point.

Obama's core of 286 is still intact, with Colorado (Obama +5.3) remaining the closest state in the set. With leads of >2 pts, Obama has all but locked up Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. Missouri and Indiana also give him leads of more than 2 points but have seen less polling, and Florida is just a whisper away. This all adds up to 375 EVs.

I list 160 of McCain's 163 EVs as safe, with an epic Obama ground game possibly giving him a shot at North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, or West Virginia. But Obama pulled most of his resources out of the first three a while back, and never really invested in West Virginia.

I'd say of the 375 EVs listed above, Indiana is Obama's toughest battle. But make no mistake, he's got 364 all but locked up. I'd estimate he does finish at 375, but it's still a little early for exact predicitons.

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So, that means Obama's going to win in a landslide, right? Well, depends how you define landslide. It turns out that, looking at elections from a historical perspective, close elections are the exception and not the rule. Bush failed to win 300 EVs twice. Going back, the last times that happened were Jimmy Carter (1976), Woodrow Wilson (1916), and William McKinley (1900) - when there were only 447 total EVs.

So for reference, here's a list of electoral vote totals from past elections:

Year	President	EVs	Out Of
1788	George Washington	69	69
1792	George Washington	132	132
1796	John Adams	71	139
1800	Thomas Jefferson	73	138
1804	Thomas Jefferson	162	176
1808	James Madison	122	175
1812	James Madison	128	217
1816	James Monroe	183	217
1820	James Monroe	228	231
1824	John Quincy Adams	84	261
1828	Andrew Jackson	178	261
1832	Andrew Jackson	219	286
1836	Martin Van Buren	170	294
1840	William Henry Harrison	234	294
1844	James K. Polk	170	275
1848	Zachary Taylor	163	290
1852	Franklin Pierce	254	296
1856	James Buchanan	174	296
1860	Abraham Lincoln	180	303
1864	Abraham Lincoln	212	233
1868	Ulysses S. Grant	217	294
1872	Ulysses S. Grant	286	352
1876	Rutherford B. Hayes	185	369
1880	James A. Garfield	214	369
1884	Grover Cleveland	219	401
1888	Benjamin Harrison	233	401
1892	Grover Cleveland	277	444
1896	William McKinley	271	447
1900	William McKinley	292	447
1904	Theodore Roosevelt	336	476
1908	William Howard Taft	321	483
1912	Woodrow Wilson	438	531
1916	Woodrow Wilson	277	531
1920	Warren G. Harding	404	531
1924	Calvin Coolidge	382	531
1928	Herbert Hoover	444	531
1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	472	531
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	523	531
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	449	531
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	432	531
1948	Harry S. Truman	303	531
1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	442	531
1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	457	531
1960	John F. Kennedy	303	537
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	486	538
1968	Richard Nixon	301	538
1972	Richard Nixon	520	538
1976	Jimmy Carter	297	538
1980	Ronald Reagan	489	538
1984	Ronald Reagan	525	538
1988	George H. W. Bush	426	538
1992	Bill Clinton	370	538
1996	Bill Clinton	379	538
2000	George W. Bush	271	538
2004	George W. Bush	286	538

Update:
In 1824 John Quincy Adams became president even though Andrew Jackson received more popular votes and more electoral votes.

In 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency even though his opponent Samuel J. Tilden received a majority of the popular vote.

In 1888 Benjamin Harrison ended Grover Cleveland's bid for re-election even though Cleveland won a plurality of the popular vote. Cleveland of course won his third bid for the presidency in the following election, making him the second of three presidents to win a plurality of the national popular vote three times (after Andrew Jackson, before Franklin Roosevelt).

In 2000 - well, let's just not go there.