First Debate

Alright, I'll chip in two cents. I don't know what the spin will do, but here's my read: basically, nobody really "won". Both candidates were pretty good, and both were rather boring.

But that's not what McCain needed. Any sports fan knows that, with his lead surging by any polling standard, Obama wants to run out the clock. And because Obama didn't look naive and because he didn't have a major gaffe, he essentially won because he's up by two touchdowns and a field goal, but now there's eight minutes left on the clock instead of ten. Same score, less time, McCain's in trouble.

(And, since this is the only foreign policy debate, you could argue that this is John's best chance, his only possession with a real shot.)

That's I'll I got.

She's freakin' out, man

Does anyone else get the sense, from the Katie Couric interview and reading about the meeting with Kissinger, that Palin is finally realizing that she's in way over her head?

Minor Improvement

I made it so the table in the corner is now a link to the homepage, so that if you click on it while viewing another page on the site you can just easily go back home. Note that clicking on the title accomplishes the same effect, but for now I've colored it the same color as the background because I wish we had a better one.

Also, just to note, I've invited Warren and Desiree to join us, though I don't know that they'll be contributing often.

I have to root for the Red Sox?!

As the 2008 MLB regular season winds down, we can start to see what the playoff picture will look like.

Boston is a good team - probably better than the Rays - but they appear headed for defeat in the division race. My basic model shows the following:

Red Sox
94 wins - 3%
95 wins - 36%
96 wins - 53%
97 wins - 9%

Rays
96 wins - 3%
97 wins - 39%
98 wins - 51%
99 wins - 7%

This gives Tampa Bay a 95% chance at a clean win in the division. This would set up a 2/3 matchup of Boston at LAA and a 1/4 Minnesota/Chicago White Sox at Tampa.

The Angels will be tough for Boston because they have such a strong pitching staff, but I think the Sox can prevail. To a lesser extent I'd say the same thing about Tampa Bay, but I think that, especially with the second round being a seven-game series in the ALCS, it is Los Angeles that is Boston's larger roadblock to the World Series.

In the National League things are less clear, but I am relatively confident that the NLCS will feature the Chicago Cubs taking down the winner of the NL East (New York/Philadelphia).

So I predict that it will most likely be the Red Sox and the Cubs in the World Series.

This makes things horrible for a Cardinals fan. Although the ecstasy from Tom Brady's knee is still brightening each and every day for me, I can't help but continue to hate Boston and all its teams. Except the Bruins. You can have them.

But this pales in comparison to my hatred for Chicago and its sports teams. The Cardinals-Cubs have the most underrated rivarly in sports, and the Cardinals have something special at stake this year. No team in North American professional sports can boast that their rival has failed to win a championship in more than a century. With the Cubs celebrating the centennial of their 1908 World Series this year, we in St. Louis ask them to hold off for just one more year, so that we can talk the best trash in all of sports.

So, even though the Cubs haven't won a World Series in the same time that the Cardinals were able to win 10 (although the Sox total of 2 in the same span - since 1926 - isn't anything to get excited about), they do present a huge challenge this year. Their run differential is the best in baseball, and their pitching staff is solid, headed by Carlos Zambrano, who recently threw a no-hitter (nevermind that he gave up a grand slam to the Cardinals in his first inning of work following the no-no). All-in-all, if it comes down to Sox-Cubs, I'd put 60% odds on the Cubs, but I'll root as hard as I can for the Sox anyway.

How much valuable corn was wasted 'constructing' this?

I hate you, Mid West.

And I know corn is not realistically valuable. I read Omnivore' Dilemma.

Making the Bible more interesting

I am obviously not a fan of the Bible, but I enjoyed the way it is presented here.

I Love Nate Silver

OK, so the guy's got no data on back-to-back conventions ever, and he still nailed it:

I swear I didn't doctor my graph in any way, except to change the axes. Damn.

Proposal

I think we should have a few running discussions going like, such as, and, one on the economy, or one for links, etc. All such semi-permanent threads should then have links on the permanent link list, and we can just keep one conversation going on pretty easily. Thoughts?

In Case You Didn't See

This is an interesting article about a suit by Bob Barr, who alleges that Obama and McCain both failed to follow the rules and deadlines to appear on the ballot in Texas.

This could be a huge sleeper issue. If it is true, and it seems the court offered little reasoning to back up its ruling against Barr, its implications are enormous. This would mean that neither McCain nor Obama could compete for Texas' 34 EVs. This alone would end the McCain campaign. Obama, however, never had a chance at Texas, so the only struggle would be whether Obama could get to 270 EVs, or whether the contest would go to the House. By that point, I can only imagine the furor.

Imagine if Obama gets fewer than 269 EVs. That means McCain would have won without the Texas issue, so there would be tremendous pressure on the House to elect him anyway. But the House will probably be Democratic. And all of this is without regarding what the popular vote does, which will be fuel for whichever fire wins it. I mean, I've heard a lot about how this election could make 2000 look like babies fighting over candy, but this is a step above all, and I can only assume would result in some pretty seroius rioting.

Thinking in advance

So what happens to the upper-right corner of this blog after the election? I figure we should start considering suggestions now so we have something we are happy with by the time mid-November rolls around. I would love to have more statistics up there, but: 1. don't really have a suggestion for the content; and 2. don't really have the skills to continue it.

Chris, if you will help teach me how to properly use Excel for statistics, I would greatly appreciate it and gladly help with the work that goes into the upper-right box.

He Didn't Listen To Me Earlier

Joe,

We're not asking anymore. No "please" or "thanks" or "no thanks" (or bridges). Stop talking. Now.

-America

Environmental News

You may or may not be aware that I am the environmental czar for my company's St. Louis office. Here is a copy of the email I sent out in that capacity today:

As you probably know, polar ice caps play a very significant role in models and simulations relating to the effects of global climate change. Ice on the earth’s surface helps the planet reflect solar heat instead of absorb it, the same way wearing a white t-shirt keeps you cool in the summer time. Additionally, this melting changes the salinity of our oceans. The effects of this have been linked to global weather patterns and are thought to contribute to extreme weather conditions, such as the intensity of hurricanes. And all of this is in addition to the fact that melting ice caps mean sea levels rise, resulting in potential catastrophes for coastal cities near sea level.

It is imperative, then, that we take note of any reasonable evidence available regarding changes in the polar ice caps.

The tribulations of polar bears are now well documented, with the United States formally listed the species as threatened in May 2008. Their habitats are in peril, and their food supply shrinking. Today, however, has brought the strongest warning yet, as CNN reports that more and more polar bears are resorting to cannibalism to survive. For many, the endangerment of any species is sufficient cause for concern and action. Even those who don’t place a priority on polar bears have cause for concern, however, as the elimination of a major species, particularly a predator at the top of its food chain, has unpredictable effects on the larger ecosystem around them.

What we must take away from this, however, is that the desperation inherent in a major species’ shift toward cannibalism is indicative of much larger problems. The rate at which the ice caps are melting is now more serious than in many previous scenarios and should resonate as a call for action on the issue of climate change. In the coming weeks the Green Team here will be ratcheting up its efforts to help the office go green and increase awareness of actions we can take to be better stewards of our environment. Please continue the things we’ve already started and keep on generating ideas so that we can combat this problem as swiftly and strongly as possible, so that we can prevent this crisis.

FYI

It is National Emergency Preparedness Month

I will provide some more details for you later.

But for now, just take a look at this. I learned of this program today at a lecture I got to attend about bioterrorism preparedness. Very, very interesting.

The Hits Just Keep on Coming

Dear Joe Biden,

Shut the hell up.

Love,
America

The most comforting face available?

How has the Treasury Department not found a better comforting face in a time of crisis? Paulson always looks defeated, usually seems to be ten seconds from crying, and often says unnerving things that create turmoil around the world. Part of this appearance is that he is trying to be a leader in what appears to be one of the worst recessions in this country's history, but something has to be said for getting a soothing face with fewer worry-lines as the face of the government's efforts to stem the downfall of the economy.

Obama's New Ad (Wishful)

Obama: Hello, this is Barack Obama. There's been a lot of discussion in the last month about John McCain's running mate, Governor Palin. We've seen a lot of angry statements come from both sides, and even accusations of sexism. As I've said in the past, Governor's Palin family and her responsibilities as a mother should not be up for discussion in this campaign.

But the American people do need to question the governor's judgment when it comes to policy. And so I ask you the people, where does Governor Palin differ from the failed policies of the current administration? Is there even one issue on which Sarah Palin and George Bush don't agree? By choosing Sarah Palin to join him on his ticket, John McCain has showed us yet again that he doesn't stand for change, he stands for more of the same.

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

Biden Criticizes Obama Ad

Are you kidding me?! Christ, maybe we should withdraw this guy.

Barack's Been Lying

Here's the tough part: I can't decide if I care.

Not That You Need It

But this is a good article on Palin.

Worst State Ever: Alaska quickly narrows South Carolina's lead

Ah, the sweet smell of racism on a summer's day. The tender breeze that flows by calms and soothes. An unspoken understanding amongst neighbors. One of the last places in the country where a hard-working man could take his family to see a neighborhood lynching down at the old oak tree. And of course that glorious banner, the proud symbol a sweet time long past, the Flag of the Confederacy.

Yes, South Carolina is a woeful shame of a state, there is no doubt about it. You know their education system has got to be fantastic, they've got some of the lowest dental premiums in the country (trust me), and in 220 years, they've only given us one thing we were thankful for.

Yet the first seceder's reign as America's worst state is in jeopardy folks, as the keep-to-itself state of Alaska - formerly in the mid-teens of America's worst - has surged forward, threatening the dominance of the Palmetto State (no, I didn't look that up.)

On July 29, 2008, the great state of Alaska felt ashamed when Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican senator, was indicted on corruption charges. With his famous bridge to nowhere quickly becoming more and more infamous, Alaskans were turning. Senator Stevens' bid for re-election would have to come to an end and with the charges announced, polls showed the race was over for Uncle Ted (no relation to Uncle Sam or Uncle Tom).

But things would change. On August 29, 2008, Stevens' good friend and future grandmother Sarah Palin was announced as John McCain's running mate. The time for divisive politics was over. The time for mooseburgers in the White House had come.



And so, just as soon as Stevens' poll numbers had crashed quicker than the 2008 1929 stock market, they rose again with Palin's VP announcement. The Senate race in Alaska is again close. Close as well, is the race for the nation's worst state.