November 13, 2008

Post-Election Analysis: House Edition

So how did things go in the House? As of right now we have 255 Dems and 174 Republicans with 6 races undecided. I predicted (split the tossups) 258-177, so right now I'm not looking too bad.

Now, I didn't really stake much on the House races because there just wasn't much information available. I did the best I could to put predictions together based on information from Wikipedia, polls, CQ politics, etc. Interestingly, of the races still undecided, all of them were classified as "Safe" or "Strong" as opposed to "Weak" or "Tossup".

I probably could have put together a better graph, but here we can see that I predicted 253 seats to go to Dems. 245 went to Dems, 4 to Reps, and 4 undecideds. I predicted 172 seats to Republicans. 166 went to Reps, 4 went to Dems, and 2 undecideds. Dems won 6 of the 10 tossups.



There are six remaining races. Ethan Berkowitz will gain on Don Young in AK, but unlike the senate race, the Republican here may have too large of a lead to overcome. Bill "Cold Hard Cash" Jefferson is in a tossup in LA-02. LA-04 is also a tossup. CA-04 features a race that was tight all year, while OH-15 and VA-05 are tossups where every single poll was lead by the same candidate, a Democrat and Republican respectively.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.