Election Projection, Senate Version

The Senate races are finally starting to behave themselves, as there is now relatively little variance in how the next Senate could look.

Astoundingly, the closest the Democrats have come to losing a single Senate seat is Mary Landrieu in LA, whose lead is "only" 13.1 points (and those aren't all blue states on the top half either). They are picking up Virginia and New Mexico in landslides (VA Dem candidate Mark Warner gave that ever-so-inspiring keynote address about cellphone towers). Colorado and New Hampshire have also become safe, and it looks like Uncle Ted has run out of luck in Alaska.

In North Carolina, Bob Dole's wife no longer has a career after running "my opponent is an athiest" ads, and the race in Oregon is closing out as well.

Counting North Carolina and Oregon brings the Dems to 58 seats, and if I put my money on it, I'd say that's where they'll land. A good hedged bet is that with a 50% chance in MN and a 20% chance in Georgia, the Democrats have a 65% chance of picking up at least one of those seats. The polls are constantly back-and-forth in MN, but Al Franken has trailed the latest polls by SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and Research 2000, all reputable and prolific pollsters. The Georgia race could flip on turnout, but if Jim Martin can't win a majority (which he can't) then it goes to runoff. Both sides will flood the race with money, but without the Obama turnout driving voters to the polls, I see little hope for picking up Georgia.

Final Senate Tally
Democrats and Liebermans: 58
Republicans: 42

And just in case you're worried about Lieberman, put it one of two ways: either you believe he really is a moderate Democrat who just supports the war and McCain, or you believe he is merely self-serving based on what gives him the best chance at power. Either way, he'll wear the Blue jersey next season.