OK, so I've been foiled a few times. An earlier version of this post wasn't saved into the comments on the EV Master Thread, and the HTML-intensive nature of this post means I can't make it a comment on that thread.
So as the picture gets complicated (take NC, where everyone in the country thinks it's a toss up but my math still shows it's solid McCain) I like to have a common sense test, so I added a feature that simply counts the number of times each candidate has been ahead or tied in a poll in the given state.
Clearly this method has problems. If a state has two polls, a bad poll from May putting Obama up by 5 and a good poll from October putting McCain up by 5, they will each have 1 "point". So I then added another line to weight each poll by pollster quality and date. Then, I took the percent of times Obama was in the lead under each methodology and I also added the current probability from 538 into the following table. The table is in order by my actual mathematical average.
State | Signs | Signs2 | 538 |
---|---|---|---|
DC | 100 | 100 | 100 |
HI | 100 | 100 | 100 |
VT | 100 | 100 | 100 |
MD | 100 | 100 | 100 |
DE | 100 | 100 | 99 |
NY | 96 | 100 | 99 |
MA | 89 | 100 | 99 |
RI | 100 | 100 | 99 |
IL | 100 | 100 | 99 |
CT | 100 | 100 | 98 |
CA | 100 | 100 | 98 |
OR | 95 | 100 | 96 |
IA | 96 | 93 | 94 |
ME | 100 | 100 | 93 |
NJ | 88 | 100 | 95 |
WA | 96 | 100 | 96 |
NM | 76 | 84 | 89 |
MI | 79 | 88 | 88 |
WI | 89 | 99 | 90 |
PA | 75 | 92 | 84 |
MN | 89 | 94 | 90 |
CO | 71 | 72 | 84 |
VA | 46 | 51 | 78 |
NH | 74 | 70 | 71 |
NV | 41 | 28 | 67 |
OH | 38 | 31 | 67 |
FL | 29 | 33 | 58 |
IN | 25 | 24 | 50 |
MO | 17 | 3 | 43 |
NC | 13 | 25 | 44 |
WV | 0 | 0 | 22 |
MT | 20 | 11 | 17 |
ND | 25 | 13 | 16 |
AR | 0 | 0 | 9 |
GA | 0 | 0 | 11 |
LA | 0 | 0 | 8 |
TX | 0 | 0 | 8 |
MS | 0 | 0 | 6 |
SC | 0 | 0 | 5 |
AZ | 0 | 0 | 7 |
SD | 0 | 0 | 6 |
KY | 0 | 0 | 3 |
TN | 0 | 0 | 2 |
KS | 0 | 0 | 3 |
AK | 0 | 0 | 5 |
NE | 0 | 0 | 2 |
AL | 0 | 0 | 1 |
WY | 0 | 0 | 1 |
OK | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ID | 0 | 0 | 1 |
UT | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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