EV Report, 10/29/08

Not much to report, but I'll be out of the office Thursday and Monday, leaving only today, Friday, and Election Day for me to chip in the ol' two cents.


I added a column which is Obama's proportion in the weighted signs test. Again, my signs test is just how many polls each candidate has led in, straight up. The weighted signs test weights each poll by pollster and date, so newer better polls count more. It actually passes a common sense test for the probability of an Obama victory in nearly all states.

As reported earlier, NV finally meandered over to the safe column. Missouri and North Carolina definitely lean Obama but aren't locked up. And I still hate you Indiana.

Actually, the third column may not have been there earlier. That's the sum of the poll weights in a state. The higher the number, the higher the level of good, recent polling in the state.