Update: Sorry about the size of the original picture.
The Huffington Post reports that Sen. Arlen Specter (R.- Pennsylvania) will switch parties and compete in the Deomcratic primary during the 2010 election cycle. Specter said,
I have been a Republican since 1966. I have been working extremely hard for the Party, for its candidates and for the ideals of a Republican Party whose tent is big enough to welcome diverse points of view. While I have been comfortable being a Republican, my Party has not defined who I am. I have taken each issue one at a time and have exercised independent judgment to do what I thought was best for Pennsylvania and the nation.
Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.
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Yeah, I was going to take this up and don't have time to do so now. Here's an overview.
ReplyDeleteMake no mistake; this is not about philosophy or the problems the Republicans have been having in general (not directly ...) - this is about one thing: last week Rasmussen released a poll showing Specter down 51-30 in a Republican primary against challenger Pat Toomey. It's rare for a 30-year senator to have any trouble in a re-election fight, so what gives? Mostly, two things.
1) Arlen Specter is one of my favorite senators (this isn't to say he does no wrong, and all else equal I dislike senators with long tenures in Congress) because he is, if you will, extremely moderate. And moderate is great for a general election, but terrible for primaries.
2) Pat Toomey also ran against Specter in the primary in 2004 and lost. So what is different this year? Registration.
As you know, Democrats gained in registration from 2004 to 2008 in every state except one (Louisiana). Pennsylvania is an interesting case in particular because its primary was so late (April 22 I think - I ain't looking it up); by the time that came around, McCain had long clinched the Republican nomination, and the media made it appear that Hillary and Barack were neck-and-neck (even though Hillary was essentially eliminated at that point), leading to many moderate Republicans switching their registrations so that they would have the opportunity to take part in a primary that actually mattered ... which is an extremely roundabout way of saying that the remaining registered Republicans in PA are far more conservative on average in 2010 than they were in 2004.
So here's the real question: was he a RINO, or is he a DINO? While personal philosophy doesn't change overnight, he is now part of the Democratic caucus. Someone with his level of experience could certainly vie for some important chairmanships, but he's got to show he can play by the rules. Add to that the fact that he needs to build up his Democratic credentials quickly to have any hopes of winning a Democratic primary, and my guess is that you'll be able to count Specter as a legitimate 60th seat in the Democrats' Senatorial coalition.
(by the way, >95% chance Franken will be seated eventually, probably in June-August)
Let me add this:
ReplyDelete1) Liberal outlets, like the HuffingtonPost, and undoubtedly Olbermann et al, are championing Specter's move as a renouncing of the ideal of the GOP.
Nice try. As Jon Stewart shows 1:00 in, Specter didn't bother with principle on this one.
From what I understand, apparently Democrats have agreed not to run a Democratic candidate against him in the next election, so... this could turn out to be not all that great a turn of events after all.
ReplyDelete