April 27, 2009

Swine Flu

Any early predictions on the ultimate outcome of this decidedly un-sexily-named pandemic?

Also, see:
PandemicFlu.gov
CDC/SwineFlu
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19 comments:

  1. BartApril 27, 2009 6:26 PM

    It seems not even the professionals know what to expect."But doctors have little information yet on the mortality rate, as there is no reliable data on the total number of people infected. Reports from the United States suggest that some cases may be mild and therefore may go undetected — allowing the disease to spread further. Flu experts are trying to determine if this year’s flu shots, which contain H1N1 strain, offer any protection."

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  2. BartApril 27, 2009 6:28 PM

    I forgot to make a prediction of any kind, so let me do that now: These Swine Flu publice service announcements will still do no good even 30 years after being produced.

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  3. BartApril 27, 2009 10:18 PM

    The source of the outbreak may have been found.

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  4. J CrowleyApril 28, 2009 1:52 AM

    You sure it wasn't this?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2tP9s8y2Ic&e

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  5. ChrisApril 28, 2009 9:14 AM

    Aw, man up you guys!

    10 Americans or 10% of Americans? Throw something out there!

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  6. CarlyApril 28, 2009 2:05 PM

    I would - but I don't think I'm actually allowed to, given that I work for NYU/Bellevue's Emergency Medicine department.

    I'll say this - the press is not covering the extent of the outbreak.

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  7. BartApril 28, 2009 4:07 PM

    I'll be the first to put a (nearly completely random) guess out there: 15,000 cases in the USA with 50+ dead. I am not even going to bother making up worldwide figures.

    The above numbers are unencumbered by fact, math., and biology and should be laughed at accordingly.

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  8. CarlyApril 28, 2009 4:15 PM

    And 1010wins finally picks up the story...

    http://www.1010wins.com/-Hundreds--of-Schoolkids-Sick/4287545

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  9. Katie MApril 28, 2009 4:29 PM

    So: is it being under reported to prevent mass hysteria, because the tools and systems for proper testing and/or data management don't exist, something else, all of the above?

    Also, I can't find it anymore (it was from a few days ago, when the story first broke), but I read an article in the Times that actually made me feel better - it was about how NYC has one of the most sophisticated emergency response systems in the country, and various plans that are in place (choppering in thousands of masks and antibiotic gel, stockpiles of swine flue drugs, etc.).

    That's not to say this is no biggie by a long shot, but if it does turn more serious, it'll be interesting (you know, after being terrifying) to see how the police, government, and healthcare workers deal with it, especially in comparison to other U.S. areas and Mexico City.

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  10. CarlyApril 28, 2009 4:36 PM

    I hate to completely burst your bubble, but while NYC may be "more prepared" to handle this kind of a catastrophe, working in the emergency management field in NYC, I do not feel we are adequately prepared. Period. Fortunately, I'll also be able to get an early vaccine if prophylaxis becomes necessary.

    Pandemics will strike in 2 waves - the first wave is the less severe, and then 6 months later, after the virus has gone "underground", it will reemerge having become stronger and more virulent, at which point it is more severe and deadly. In pandemics in the past, there has been inadequate disaster preparations given the resources at hand.

    The time frame for developing a vaccine is usually about 4 months. This is probably the first time that science and emergency management are to be challenged in this capacity: can the implications of those 2 time frames (6 months for the pandemic, 4 months for the vaccine) actually mitigate the pandemic? Let's hope so...

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  11. CarlyApril 28, 2009 4:39 PM

    Oh and I am not exactly sure why it was being under reported all week - as I said, there were only 9 "laboratory confirmed" cases, and that's what the press picked up on, though there were more than 200 students ill at that first school, the majority of which did not undergo lab testing because it was not deemed necessary. After all, the flu is just the flu. (And when it becomes more virulent here is when we should really start to worry. So, when every person who contracts it must check into the hospital, that's a problem. As of now, people are advised to seek medical help ONLY AFTER 1) speaking "remotely" to a healthcare professional, so calling/emailing before going to a clinic/private practice, and 2) symptoms have persisted for longer than 7 days.

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  12. ChrisApril 28, 2009 4:41 PM

    By the way, I heard hilariously on a radio show this morning, the return-from-commercial-fast-paced-headline-news-interlude talking about how the US Govt was, by the baselines of other countries, doing relatively very little to confront the crisis - only to hear the host come back on and honestly suggest that the whole thing is an Obama Administration scare to get Sebelius confirmed (and also because this administration "loves crises").

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  13. ChrisApril 28, 2009 4:42 PM

    Sorry, I didn't sufficiently set up the contrast that the Administration is supposedly "grossly overreacting" ...

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  14. Katie MApril 28, 2009 4:47 PM

    haha what radio program were you listening to??

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  15. CarlyApril 28, 2009 4:47 PM

    This just in: NYC has CONFIRMED 44 cases from St. Francis Prep (as opposed to the 8 or 9 that have been reported so far.)
    There are no cases thus far of transmission to family members by the students, but there are at least 3 "community" transmissions (people not directly connected to the school but in the neighborhood.)
    There are two confirmed case of New Yorkers not associated with St. Francis, and they recently traveled to Mexico. They expect this number to rise rapidly in the coming days.
    Lab testing is NOT recommended for anyone with mild symptoms of "influenza like illness". They are trying hard to not overwhelm the labs, because many people overreact.

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  16. CarlyApril 28, 2009 4:48 PM

    Oh, and only if there is a cluster of ILI (influenza like illness) should it be reported to CDC or Department of Health and Human Services. A cluster is defined as 3 or more cases.

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  17. ChrisApril 28, 2009 11:08 PM

    Not to worry anyone, but today I had some - we'll call it "digestive issues" - that I haven't had since I last had the flu (4th grade). Later in the day I got the chills and had to leave work a little early.

    I've been feeling better since I got home, and I haven't registered a fever, so I think it's possible I'm going to survive ...

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  18. BartMay 01, 2009 9:43 AM

    As it turns out, a Washington state data-mining firm emailed a warning about a potential swine flu outbreak in Mexico a full EIGHTEEN DAYS before the CDC issued its first warning.

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  19. BartMay 01, 2009 3:00 PM

    Nate Silver discusses poll results that indicate that "3.2 percent -- 38 of 1,200 -- know someone who has gotten sick with the swine flu."

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