The 2008 Voter Turnout Measurement Problem

... just got more complicated.

I hypothesize that with everything we already know about the enthusiasm gap for each party this year, Obama's holding a clear lead in the polls would depress turnout on the Republican side ("we're gonna lose anyway") without having a similar effect on the Democratic side ("I don't care how much it looks like we're gonna win by, we aren't taking any chances this year"). The strength of Obama's ground game (a gamble in some senses) will be of critical interest to future political strategists; the actual effects, however, could be rather difficult to determine.