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The reason Indiana seems out of place is that its polling has been quite erratic, I've heard little about Obama's ground game there, and it's polling strength is the weakest of any state on the list from Missouri to North Carolina.
Actually, interestingly NV, MO, and IN are nearly identical in their polling strength, which is far weaker than that of OH, FL, and NC, which are also nearly identical.
I have two October polls for North Dakota and nineteen for North Carolina.
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