November 04, 2008

Election Projection, House Version

Doing the House races sucks because there is so little data. Many races rated by some sites as tossups didn't even have a single poll, and a very large number only had polls commissioned by one of the candidates, so there was very poor data to go on.

Nonetheless, here are my best projections (the second one is the number of state delegations controlled by each party - more relevant when an electoral tie was feasible)



And I'm sorry for the most ungodly long table ever, but here you go. A few races worth watching are AK-AL, where Don Young might be kicked out of the House for the first time since 1973 for, believe it or not, being corrupt. Also, MN-06 is Michele Bachmann's district; she's been mentioned here before. Florida has many hotly contested races. PA-12 is the district where Paul Murtha called his western Pennsylvania constituents racists - his 34 year career may come to an end. WY-AL is also a very close race.




DistrictProjection
AL1Safe Rep
AL2Weak Rep
AL3Safe Rep
AL4Safe Rep
AL5Safe Dem
AL6Safe Rep
AL7Safe Dem
AK1Safe Dem
AZ1Strong Dem
AZ2Safe Rep
AZ3Safe Rep
AZ4Safe Dem
AZ5Strong Dem
AZ6Safe Rep
AZ7Safe Dem
AZ8Strong Dem
AR1Safe Dem
AR2Safe Dem
AR3Safe Rep
AR4Safe Dem
CA1Safe Dem
CA2Safe Rep
CA3Safe Rep
CA4Strong Dem
CA5Safe Dem
CA6Safe Dem
CA7Safe Dem
CA8Safe Dem
CA9Safe Dem
CA10Safe Dem
CA11Safe Dem
CA12Safe Dem
CA13Safe Dem
CA14Safe Dem
CA15Safe Dem
CA16Safe Dem
CA17Safe Dem
CA18Safe Dem
CA19Safe Rep
CA20Safe Dem
CA21Safe Rep
CA22Safe Rep
CA23Safe Dem
CA24Safe Rep
CA25Safe Rep
CA26Safe Rep
CA27Safe Dem
CA28Safe Dem
CA29Safe Dem
CA30Safe Dem
CA31Safe Dem
CA32Safe Dem
CA33Safe Dem
CA34Safe Dem
CA35Safe Dem
CA36Safe Dem
CA37Safe Dem
CA38Safe Dem
CA39Safe Dem
CA40Safe Rep
CA41Safe Rep
CA42Safe Rep
CA43Safe Dem
CA44Safe Rep
CA45Safe Rep
CA46Safe Rep
CA47Safe Dem
CA48Safe Rep
CA49Safe Rep
CA50Safe Rep
CA51Safe Dem
CA52Safe Rep
CA53Safe Dem
CO1Safe Dem
CO2Safe Dem
CO3Safe Dem
CO4Safe Dem
CO5Safe Rep
CO6Safe Rep
CO7Safe Dem
CT1Safe Dem
CT2Safe Dem
CT3Safe Dem
CT4Toss Up
CT5Weak Dem
DE1Safe Rep
FL1Safe Rep
FL2Safe Dem
FL3Safe Dem
FL4Safe Rep
FL5Safe Rep
FL6Safe Rep
FL7Safe Rep
FL8Weak Dem
FL9Safe Rep
FL10Safe Rep
FL11Safe Dem
FL12Safe Rep
FL13Safe Rep
FL14Safe Rep
FL15Strong Rep
FL16Safe Rep
FL17Safe Dem
FL18Safe Rep
FL19Safe Dem
FL20Safe Dem
FL21Toss Up
FL22Strong Dem
FL23Safe Dem
FL24Strong Dem
FL25Strong Rep
GA1Safe Rep
GA2Safe Dem
GA3Safe Rep
GA4Safe Dem
GA5Safe Dem
GA6Safe Rep
GA7Safe Rep
GA8Weak Dem
GA9Safe Rep
GA10Safe Rep
GA11Safe Rep
GA12Strong Dem
GA13Safe Dem
HI1Safe Dem
HI2Safe Dem
ID1Weak Dem
ID2Safe Rep
IL1Safe Dem
IL2Safe Dem
IL3Safe Dem
IL4Safe Dem
IL5Safe Dem
IL6Safe Rep
IL7Safe Dem
IL8Strong Dem
IL9Safe Dem
IL10Strong Dem
IL11Safe Dem
IL12Safe Dem
IL13Safe Rep
IL14Weak Dem
IL15Safe Rep
IL16Safe Rep
IL17Safe Dem
IL18Safe Rep
IL19Safe Rep
IN1Safe Dem
IN2Safe Dem
IN3Weak Rep
IN4Safe Rep
IN5Safe Rep
IN6Safe Rep
IN7Safe Dem
IN8Strong Dem
IN9Safe Dem
IA1Safe Dem
IA2Safe Dem
IA3Safe Dem
IA4Strong Rep
IA5Safe Rep
KS1Safe Rep
KS2Safe Dem
KS3Safe Dem
KS4Safe Rep
KY1Safe Rep
KY2Safe Rep
KY3Safe Dem
KY4Safe Rep
KY5Safe Rep
KY6Safe Dem
LA1Safe Rep
LA2Safe Dem
LA3Safe Dem
LA4Strong Rep
LA5Safe Rep
LA6Safe Dem
LA7Strong Rep
ME1Safe Dem
ME2Safe Dem
MD1Weak Rep
MD2Safe Dem
MD3Safe Dem
MD4Safe Dem
MD5Safe Dem
MD6Safe Rep
MD7Safe Dem
MD8Safe Dem
MA1Safe Dem
MA2Safe Dem
MA3Safe Dem
MA4Safe Dem
MA5Safe Dem
MA6Safe Dem
MA7Safe Dem
MA8Safe Dem
MA9Safe Dem
MA10Safe Dem
MI1Safe Dem
MI2Safe Rep
MI3Safe Rep
MI4Safe Rep
MI5Safe Dem
MI6Safe Rep
MI7Weak Dem
MI8Safe Rep
MI9Strong Dem
MI10Safe Rep
MI11Safe Rep
MI12Safe Dem
MI13Safe Dem
MI14Safe Dem
MI15Safe Dem
MN1Safe Dem
MN2Strong Rep
MN3Toss Up
MN4Safe Dem
MN5Safe Dem
MN6Toss Up
MN7Safe Dem
MN8Safe Dem
MS1Safe Dem
MS2Safe Dem
MS3Safe Rep
MS4Safe Dem
MO1Safe Dem
MO2Safe Rep
MO3Safe Dem
MO4Safe Dem
MO5Safe Dem
MO6Safe Rep
MO7Safe Rep
MO8Safe Rep
MO9Strong Rep
MT1Safe Rep
NE1Safe Rep
NE2Safe Rep
NE3Safe Rep
NV1Safe Dem
NV2Safe Rep
NV3Toss Up
NH1Strong Dem
NH2Safe Dem
NJ1Safe Dem
NJ2Safe Rep
NJ3Toss Up
NJ4Safe Rep
NJ5Safe Rep
NJ6Safe Dem
NJ7Weak Dem
NJ8Safe Dem
NJ9Safe Dem
NJ10Safe Dem
NJ11Safe Rep
NJ12Safe Dem
NJ13Safe Dem
NM1Weak Dem
NM2Strong Dem
NM3Safe Dem
NY1Safe Dem
NY2Safe Dem
NY3Safe Rep
NY4Safe Dem
NY5Safe Dem
NY6Safe Dem
NY7Safe Dem
NY8Safe Dem
NY9Safe Dem
NY10Safe Dem
NY11Safe Dem
NY12Safe Dem
NY13Safe Dem
NY14Safe Dem
NY15Safe Dem
NY16Safe Dem
NY17Safe Dem
NY18Safe Dem
NY19Strong Dem
NY20Strong Dem
NY21Safe Dem
NY22Safe Dem
NY23Safe Rep
NY24Strong Dem
NY25Toss Up
NY26Safe Rep
NY27Safe Dem
NY28Safe Dem
NY29Safe Dem
NC1Safe Dem
NC2Safe Dem
NC3Safe Rep
NC4Safe Dem
NC5Safe Rep
NC6Safe Rep
NC7Safe Dem
NC8Weak Dem
NC9Safe Rep
NC10Safe Rep
NC11Safe Dem
NC12Safe Dem
NC13Safe Dem
ND1Safe Dem
OH1Toss Up
OH2Safe Rep
OH3Safe Rep
OH4Safe Rep
OH5Safe Rep
OH6Safe Dem
OH7Strong Rep
OH8Safe Rep
OH9Safe Dem
OH10Safe Dem
OH11Safe Dem
OH12Safe Rep
OH13Safe Dem
OH14Strong Rep
OH15Safe Dem
OH16Safe Dem
OH17Safe Dem
OH18Strong Dem
OK1Safe Rep
OK2Safe Dem
OK3Safe Rep
OK4Safe Rep
OK5Safe Rep
OR1Safe Dem
OR2Safe Rep
OR3Safe Dem
OR4Safe Dem
OR5Safe Dem
PA1Safe Dem
PA2Safe Dem
PA3Strong Dem
PA4Safe Dem
PA5Safe Rep
PA6Safe Rep
PA7Safe Dem
PA8Strong Dem
PA9Safe Rep
PA10Safe Dem
PA11Strong Rep
PA12Toss Up
PA13Safe Dem
PA14Safe Dem
PA15Strong Rep
PA16Safe Rep
PA17Safe Dem
PA18Strong Rep
PA19Safe Rep
RI1Safe Dem
RI2Safe Dem
SC1Safe Rep
SC2Safe Rep
SC3Safe Rep
SC4Safe Rep
SC5Safe Dem
SC6Safe Dem
SD1Safe Dem
TN1Safe Rep
TN2Safe Rep
TN3Safe Rep
TN4Safe Dem
TN5Safe Dem
TN6Safe Dem
TN7Safe Rep
TN8Safe Dem
TN9Safe Dem
TX1Safe Rep
TX2Safe Rep
TX3Safe Rep
TX4Safe Rep
TX5Safe Rep
TX6Safe Rep
TX7Safe Rep
TX8Safe Rep
TX9Safe Dem
TX10Strong Rep
TX11Safe Rep
TX12Safe Rep
TX13Safe Rep
TX14Safe Rep
TX15Safe Dem
TX16Safe Dem
TX17Safe Dem
TX18Safe Dem
TX19Safe Rep
TX20Safe Dem
TX21Safe Rep
TX22Safe Rep
TX23Strong Dem
TX24Safe Rep
TX25Safe Dem
TX26Safe Rep
TX27Safe Dem
TX28Safe Dem
TX29Safe Dem
TX30Safe Dem
TX31Safe Rep
TX32Safe Rep
UT1Safe Rep
UT2Safe Dem
UT3Safe Rep
VT1Safe Dem
VA1Safe Rep
VA2Safe Rep
VA3Safe Dem
VA4Safe Rep
VA5Safe Rep
VA6Safe Rep
VA7Safe Rep
VA8Safe Dem
VA9Safe Dem
VA10Weak Rep
VA11Safe Dem
WA1Safe Dem
WA2Safe Dem
WA3Safe Dem
WA4Safe Rep
WA5Safe Rep
WA6Safe Dem
WA7Safe Dem
WA8Toss Up
WA9Safe Dem
WV1Safe Dem
WV2Safe Rep
WV3Safe Dem
WI1Safe Rep
WI2Safe Dem
WI3Safe Dem
WI4Safe Dem
WI5Safe Rep
WI6Safe Rep
WI7Safe Dem
WI8Safe Dem
WY1Weak Rep
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