Oops

If you are set to receive new posts by email then you saw that earlier I reported some pretty exciting scenarios for Obama (anywhere from 318 to 375 EVs). I didn't realize I had accidentally cut the half-life on my polls from 25 to 10 days, so newer polls were more heavily weighted. That may not be an unreasonable estimation given that we had a sudden event, but I'm still going with the more conservative method.

Either way, my latest update is in the EV master thread.

Oh, and one more thought: a few polls out today indicate the race may be tightening slightly. I'll keep you posted.