January 22, 2009

A few things (Updated Twice)

(Update: I was going to say that I never thought Caroline had much of a chance. And using your uncle's collapse to find a way out is not just total BS, it's horrible.)

Random thoughts and rants.

Should Tim Geithner's tax issues be a bigger deal? I hear more about that than if he's really the best guy to be in the position. For what it's worth, I heard O'Reilly belligerently defending Geithner against a conservative caller yesterday.
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Obama's speech was not that bad. Everybody's ripping on it. Not everybody, but many people. I thought the speech was very good. Expecting it to be epic is like expecting Babe Ruth to hit three homeruns just because you're at the game. People, he can't give one of the greatest 20 speeches in American history every time he opens his mouth.

Besides, I actually took a copy of the speech and read it line for line, trying to choose the ones that might be "remembered" in history. In so doing, it became quite clear that there's no way to know, because it all depends on what happens in the future. It needs to sound prophetic. If the energy crisis somehow got much worse, and he got us out of it, the line about "harnessing the wind, sun, and soil" could very well be the hallmark of a 21st century presidency. Or not. It all depends, and the whole speech is like that. But I thought that the tone was appropriate, and that the style achieved the sort of timelessness you're looking for in an inaugural address (i.e., except for a few specifics, it basically could have been given by any president).

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As was the case with the Golden Globes, Heath Ledger is nominated for an Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. Maybe I'm delusional here, but whether you want him to win or not, I would have thought he'd be in the best lead actor category. He's got to have pretty similar screentime to Batman I'd think, and his performance certainly leads the movie. A pretty minor controversy, to be sure, but just a thought I'd had.

Also, I think it was underreported that Kate Winslet won Best Lead and Best Supporting at the Golden Globes. Then again, it is the Golden Globes.

(Update2: An interesting coincidence is that the nominations for the Oscars were announced today, on what I just read is the one-year anniversary of Ledger's death.)
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This whole re-oath thing is pretty stupid, but dammit Barack, why didn't you use a Bible the second time? Just save us the grief! On a related note, Konservapedia is still sure he's Muslim. ("He took the oath on a Bible and not a Koran? Well that's what a secret Muslim would do.")

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I knew I had something else but I can't remember it so I'll do this instead.

Starting with 2008 GDP of $13.84 trillion and debt of $10.6 trillion, and assuming long-term growth of 2% and inflation of 1%, and also assuming the CBO estimate for debt as a percentage of GDP, then in 80 years the nominal GDP will be $150 trillion and the nominal debt will be $1 quadrillion.

5 comments:

  1. Geithner: from what I understand he is the only candidate with the experience and skills to do a good job who has any shot of passing the confirmation. He is clearly an idiot for missing those taxes, but the fact that he missed them tells me that it was simply a stupid mistake rather than a malicious attempt to swindle the government. If someone were trying to beat taxes they would have started long before tax season by hiding income or shifting their residence. As it is Geithner just seems out of touch with his personal life because he is too focused on work.

    Obama: I agree his speech is getting an unfair hearing. I still haven't re-watched it so I will end my commentary there.

    Ledger and Winslet: I am amazed by the supporting actor thing. Ledger may have had more screentime than Bale so I don't understand this at all. I haven't seen anything with Kate Winslet lately so I can't comment. Carly and I saw Valkyrie and enjoyed it; basically the story is enough to carry a movie and the filmmakers didn't get in the way of that, though they didn't do anything spectacular.

    Re-oath: The bible/a book is not a requirement for the oath. So long as the words were said in the correct order he is fine.

    Debt: Damn it all.

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  2. Oath: Yeah, but I mean, if the point was to put down the crazies just in case, then it doesn't sound good if you do a fake oath, then admit it doesn't count by doing another ("real") one, and then in the real one you mysteriously decide you don't need a bible?

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  3. Good point. I liked the comment from a Daily Show correspondent [paraphrased here], "I know he is saying similar things to Bush [e.g. "God given right to freedom"], but I have hope because I fully believe that when Obama says it he doesn't mean it."

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  4. Bart - exactly. I loved that line "when Obama says it he doesn't mean it."

    But that's kind of why I don't really think he should have used a bible to appease the crazies. Sure, it would make life easier, but my biggest emotion post-Bush is that finally, we don't have to jump through hoops to appease religious nuts with power. I mean, we will, of course, just hopefully to a lesser extent. As the Daily Show point out, God was ALL over that Inauguration, and frankly is far too large of a part of any of Obama's speeches for my comfort. I say any opportunity to remind people that for something to be (a) ceremonial, (b) emotionally moving, or (c) legally binding, it doesn't have to blessed by a heavenly being, is good one to take.

    I guess I'm taking a particularly hard line on a particularly inconsequential issue, but the amount of religion on TV on Tuesday really got to me. Because of my age or upbringing or whatever, I really had no doubt that there would be a black President in my lifetime, and I'm sure there will probably be a woman and an Asian-American as well, but I'm doubtful about an agnostic or atheist President. Now THAT would be inspiring.

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  5. Also, I really liked Obama's speech. Not much policy, which was too be expected, but I thought he struck the right tone - sacrifice, reconciliation, etc.

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