Now, some of you may think that JCVD is a disease; it is not (the disease you are thinking of is CJD), but perhaps the idea of disease is an apt metaphor. Jean-Claude Van Damme (JCVD) used to be epidemic in our society, commanding our news coverage, our hearts, and our minds. Recently, however, JCVD has lost that elusive 'hot new thing' label, something that bird flu and mad-cow disease can tell you all about. Have no fear, though, as JCVD will now (I swear on my life that what you are about to read is true) be playing himself in a French meta-comedy-action film entitled JCVD, in which our down-and-out hero attempts to recover some semblance of a respectable life only to find himself trapped in a bank robbery in Brussels. I highly recommend checking out the Wikipedia page.
I cannot wait for Nicolas Cage to work with Van Damme on National Treasure VII: The Bloodiest Epic Treasure Yet!
November 07, 2008
More lessons from the past
“We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics."
~F.D.R., 1937
I can't get over how these types of quotes - like the Whig I quoted earlier - show how clearly we fail to learn from the past.
On a slightly different note, with all the comparisons being tossed around, "Obama is the new MLK Jr.!" "Obama is the new Mandela!" I really think that - in situation, style, and policy - FDR is the most apt.
~F.D.R., 1937
I can't get over how these types of quotes - like the Whig I quoted earlier - show how clearly we fail to learn from the past.
On a slightly different note, with all the comparisons being tossed around, "Obama is the new MLK Jr.!" "Obama is the new Mandela!" I really think that - in situation, style, and policy - FDR is the most apt.
The election by numbers
I enjoyed this set of interesting facts about the election. It is not quite of the same caliber as Chris' analyses, but it does highlight some interesting aspects of the election (e.g. not a single county in Oklahoma had a majority vote for Barack).
Interesting Read
Science + Prison + Psychopaths...
Suffering Souls
It's a long article, but worth it. (Well, worth it to me. I work in healthcare now and have previously had involvement with the prisoner's rights.)
Suffering Souls
It's a long article, but worth it. (Well, worth it to me. I work in healthcare now and have previously had involvement with the prisoner's rights.)
Wait, the new president consults experts???
I love Obama. From a NYT article:
I guess the important part is that he consults real experts.
No incoming president in modern times has been so pressured to begin governing, in effect, before he is sworn into office. With that in mind, Mr. Obama and Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. will meet on Friday with members of a new economic advisory board.
The group, assembled to offer wide-ranging advice, includes the billionaire investor Warren Buffett; Mr. Summers and his predecessor as Treasury secretary, Robert E. Rubin; Paul A. Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman; and Eric E. Schmidt, the chief executive of Google.
I guess the important part is that he consults real experts.
November 06, 2008
ain't it the truth...
Here We Go!
OK, I promise I won't do this except this once, but we've already got a poll on the 2012 election.
Newsweek, 10/24/2008, 1,092 RV
Item #21:
If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
Mitt Romney - 36%
Mike Huckabee - 27%
Sarah Palin - 21%
Other/Don't Know - 8%
Newsweek, 10/24/2008, 1,092 RV
Item #21:
If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
Mitt Romney - 36%
Mike Huckabee - 27%
Sarah Palin - 21%
Other/Don't Know - 8%
Senator Palin?
OK, so I've been looking around and it seems the official word is that if Stevens resigns or is expelled (don't count on the first one, the second one is possible) then it is the duty of the Governor of Alaska to call for a special election, which takes place 60-90 days after the declaration. Palin would face no legal or ethical hurdles in running in that election herself, and my feeling is that she'd win on an order or 70-25 or so. She cannot, however, appoint herself (or anyone else) to the seat under any circumstances
PS - MSNBC has called Oregon's senate race for Democrat Jeff Merkley. Yesterday Merkley was down by about 4,000 votes with 77% reporting. Today he is up by 39,000 votes with 82% reporting. I guess Portland came in.
Democrats - 57
Republicans - 40
Not Decided - AK, MN (recount will take weeks), GA (likely going to Dec 2 runoff)
All undecided races lean Republican
PS - MSNBC has called Oregon's senate race for Democrat Jeff Merkley. Yesterday Merkley was down by about 4,000 votes with 77% reporting. Today he is up by 39,000 votes with 82% reporting. I guess Portland came in.
Democrats - 57
Republicans - 40
Not Decided - AK, MN (recount will take weeks), GA (likely going to Dec 2 runoff)
All undecided races lean Republican
Remind me again ... ?
I heard there was some big to-do on Tuesday night. Some, like, history thing? A bunch of nerds getting together to particpate in a civics project, maybe? Yeah - how'd that turn out?
November 05, 2008
Now you *can* be disappointed in Missouri
Missouri voters yesterday passed Constitutional Amendment 1, which makes English the language in which all government meetings must be conducted. Trust me, that's not an issue anyway. But what's really disappointing is that it passed overwhelmingly, 86-14.
We did pass a resolution to force our utilities to use renewable energy. And hey, at least when we affect other people we got it right!
We did pass a resolution to force our utilities to use renewable energy. And hey, at least when we affect other people we got it right!
Super-simple preliminary analysis and back-patting
OK, first a back pat. This is the second consecutive presidential election where I went to bed perfect. Now, last time I went to sleep 48-for-48 and woke up 48-for-51 (I called all three remaining states - IA, NM, and OH, and thus the presidency - for Kerry).
Last night I was 47-for-47, with MT, MO, IN, and NC hanging in the balance. It looks this time as though I went 50-for-51, getting MT, MO, and NC but missing on IN. As I said for months, Indiana was the toughest of swing states, although Missouri finished closer than any other state. So perfection came and teased me. It was that Dr. Pepper vending machine in the desert in that episode of Family Guy; I am left only with the bitter taste of RC Cola.
But seriously, let's go back to how awesome I am. Ohio was supposed to be the motherlode, the decider. CNN pandered to Ohio nonstop, even filling their debate focus groups with Ohio voters. Pollster.com called it a tossup, some even predicted it would go for McCain. Me? I put it in the Safe Obama column.
I don't know what the experience was like for you, but where I was, the call of Ohio for Obama came really out-of-nowhere and didn't have the right effect. If we had any idea they were about to call it, we would have all been watching closely popped the champagne then. But instead it just came off like any other state, which we dutifully colored blue before moving on. And also, I nailed Florida, even though some people had their doubts.
I didn't do senate races in 2004 but I did in 2006, and I got 'em all. And that wasn't an easy race. So taking an-actually-perfect record into the '08 senate race how'd I do? Well, even the networks don't know, but so far I'm 31-for-31, with GA, AK, OR, and MN left. Technically the race in MN is over, but there will be a recount. In Oregon, my guy Merkley is a whisper behind with mostly Democratic areas left to count. In Georgia, unless something really crazy goes down with the early votes (which is possible - plus, Bart asked me yesterday to predict one state that would go all crazy on us, and I said Georgia) Chambliss will take that seat, putting me at 34-for-34.
And then there's freaking Alaska.
Alaska, you are the worst state ever. Don Young was reelected despite involvement with Jack Abramoff and VECO, which works with pipelines in Alaska and has plead guilty to bribing Alaskan politicians. VECO was also behind the construction on Ted Stevens' house that resulted in him being convicted of seven felony counts. (His defense was simple: "They didn't convict me."). Yet Uncle Ted got reelected, too? And now Sarah Palin might be a couple months away from promotion to the United States Senate? God I hate you, Alaska.
Interestingly, the polling was way off in Alaska. No state outperformed my model for McCain as much as Alaska did (12-13 pts) and similar results were seen in the House and Senate races. In fact, of the 25 presidential polls in Alaska, the result seen last night outperformed 24 of them, with one Rasmussen poll from Sep 9 being the exception. I hate to sound partisan here, but with this much disparity and this much corruption, is it possible the votes counted weren't the same as the votes cast?
Last night I was 47-for-47, with MT, MO, IN, and NC hanging in the balance. It looks this time as though I went 50-for-51, getting MT, MO, and NC but missing on IN. As I said for months, Indiana was the toughest of swing states, although Missouri finished closer than any other state. So perfection came and teased me. It was that Dr. Pepper vending machine in the desert in that episode of Family Guy; I am left only with the bitter taste of RC Cola.
But seriously, let's go back to how awesome I am. Ohio was supposed to be the motherlode, the decider. CNN pandered to Ohio nonstop, even filling their debate focus groups with Ohio voters. Pollster.com called it a tossup, some even predicted it would go for McCain. Me? I put it in the Safe Obama column.
I don't know what the experience was like for you, but where I was, the call of Ohio for Obama came really out-of-nowhere and didn't have the right effect. If we had any idea they were about to call it, we would have all been watching closely popped the champagne then. But instead it just came off like any other state, which we dutifully colored blue before moving on. And also, I nailed Florida, even though some people had their doubts.
I didn't do senate races in 2004 but I did in 2006, and I got 'em all. And that wasn't an easy race. So taking an-actually-perfect record into the '08 senate race how'd I do? Well, even the networks don't know, but so far I'm 31-for-31, with GA, AK, OR, and MN left. Technically the race in MN is over, but there will be a recount. In Oregon, my guy Merkley is a whisper behind with mostly Democratic areas left to count. In Georgia, unless something really crazy goes down with the early votes (which is possible - plus, Bart asked me yesterday to predict one state that would go all crazy on us, and I said Georgia) Chambliss will take that seat, putting me at 34-for-34.
And then there's freaking Alaska.
Alaska, you are the worst state ever. Don Young was reelected despite involvement with Jack Abramoff and VECO, which works with pipelines in Alaska and has plead guilty to bribing Alaskan politicians. VECO was also behind the construction on Ted Stevens' house that resulted in him being convicted of seven felony counts. (His defense was simple: "They didn't convict me."). Yet Uncle Ted got reelected, too? And now Sarah Palin might be a couple months away from promotion to the United States Senate? God I hate you, Alaska.
Interestingly, the polling was way off in Alaska. No state outperformed my model for McCain as much as Alaska did (12-13 pts) and similar results were seen in the House and Senate races. In fact, of the 25 presidential polls in Alaska, the result seen last night outperformed 24 of them, with one Rasmussen poll from Sep 9 being the exception. I hate to sound partisan here, but with this much disparity and this much corruption, is it possible the votes counted weren't the same as the votes cast?
Pollster Preempt
Be on the lookout for everybody, from Rasmussen to yes, 538, to be spinning the numbers to show how great they did. Of course, I'll probably do the same, but still be on the lookout for it.
Looks like I missed one state (MO). I said the House was 253-172 with 10 tossups. MSNBC projects 258-177. I'll take that as a victory. In a contest we had at our party I put down 257-178.
Looks like I missed one state (MO). I said the House was 253-172 with 10 tossups. MSNBC projects 258-177. I'll take that as a victory. In a contest we had at our party I put down 257-178.
Anger
So I turned on talk radio on my five minute drive to work this morning. I put on FOX News, because I wanted to see what a day like this is like on the right.
They had a Democrat caller (who was black), and they went back and forth (I should mention that the show on at this time is definitely conservative, but not extreme. I disagree with the guys strongly, but they're not the Hannity/Limbaugh types) and she was saying that she was actually more excited about Palin losing than Obama winning (though still really excited about that). When asked why, she said that Palin had brought about so much division and anger and hatred in the country, and that she wouldn't condemn the racist things shouted during her rallies. The response?
"An African-American was just elected president and you think you still have the right to bitch about racism?"
I hope this isn't a preview of the nextfour eight years.
They had a Democrat caller (who was black), and they went back and forth (I should mention that the show on at this time is definitely conservative, but not extreme. I disagree with the guys strongly, but they're not the Hannity/Limbaugh types) and she was saying that she was actually more excited about Palin losing than Obama winning (though still really excited about that). When asked why, she said that Palin had brought about so much division and anger and hatred in the country, and that she wouldn't condemn the racist things shouted during her rallies. The response?
"An African-American was just elected president and you think you still have the right to bitch about racism?"
I hope this isn't a preview of the next
Morning Status
UPDATE3: MSNBC calls Missouri for John McCain. Of the 2.9 million votes cast, John McCain won 49.44% and Barack Obama won 49.24%. McCain's current margin of victory is 5,868 votes.
UPDATE2: With 92% reporting, LA Times shows banning gay marriage is winning in California. And you know what - if you want to support it, that's one thing. But if you're really this excited about it, you just suck.
UPDATE: Al Franken has lost his race in MN, but per state law, the 600-vote difference kicks in an automatic recount.
As it stands, Obama (obviously) has won. Indiana and Montana were called late last night/early this morning for Obama and McCain respectively. North Carolina is too close to call with 99% reporting. Not to be outdone, Missouri is too close to call with 100% reporting. Finally, there may be indications that Georgia has been called too early, and Nate mentioned that the total vote level is much lower than expected, so there may be something like early votes left to count.
On the Senate side, MN is too close to call with Franken slightly ahead, GA may be too close to call as above (either Republican Chambliss will retain his seat or, most likely, there will be a runoff), OR is too close to call, and, unbelievably, Alaska is too close to call. Electoral-vote reports that a Stevens win in Alaska would probably result in him being expelled from the Senate, followed by an election between current candidate Mark Begich (D) and Sarah Palin, which Palin would win in a landslide.
Also, it appears that John Murtha and Michele Bachmann will be re-elected.
Oh, and PS - HELL YES!!!
UPDATE2: With 92% reporting, LA Times shows banning gay marriage is winning in California. And you know what - if you want to support it, that's one thing. But if you're really this excited about it, you just suck.
UPDATE: Al Franken has lost his race in MN, but per state law, the 600-vote difference kicks in an automatic recount.
As it stands, Obama (obviously) has won. Indiana and Montana were called late last night/early this morning for Obama and McCain respectively. North Carolina is too close to call with 99% reporting. Not to be outdone, Missouri is too close to call with 100% reporting. Finally, there may be indications that Georgia has been called too early, and Nate mentioned that the total vote level is much lower than expected, so there may be something like early votes left to count.
On the Senate side, MN is too close to call with Franken slightly ahead, GA may be too close to call as above (either Republican Chambliss will retain his seat or, most likely, there will be a runoff), OR is too close to call, and, unbelievably, Alaska is too close to call. Electoral-vote reports that a Stevens win in Alaska would probably result in him being expelled from the Senate, followed by an election between current candidate Mark Begich (D) and Sarah Palin, which Palin would win in a landslide.
Also, it appears that John Murtha and Michele Bachmann will be re-elected.
Oh, and PS - HELL YES!!!
November 04, 2008
Election Projection, Final Version
(Basically, I updated the graphic with the new poll data and backed out on leaning Missouri to Obama)
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama.(Very) Weak Obama. Weak McCain.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech.(Very) Weak McCain.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up showsObama 364, McCain 174 Obama 353, McCain 185 with Obama 353 McCain 185 Obama 364, McCain 174 and Obama 375 McCain 163 being the second- and third-most likely scenarios.
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 353-185 differs from the graphic's 364-174.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up shows
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 353-185 differs from the graphic's 364-174.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Election Projection, House Version
Doing the House races sucks because there is so little data. Many races rated by some sites as tossups didn't even have a single poll, and a very large number only had polls commissioned by one of the candidates, so there was very poor data to go on.
Nonetheless, here are my best projections (the second one is the number of state delegations controlled by each party - more relevant when an electoral tie was feasible)
And I'm sorry for the most ungodly long table ever, but here you go. A few races worth watching are AK-AL, where Don Young might be kicked out of the House for the first time since 1973 for, believe it or not, being corrupt. Also, MN-06 is Michele Bachmann's district; she's been mentioned here before. Florida has many hotly contested races. PA-12 is the district where Paul Murtha called his western Pennsylvania constituents racists - his 34 year career may come to an end. WY-AL is also a very close race.
Nonetheless, here are my best projections (the second one is the number of state delegations controlled by each party - more relevant when an electoral tie was feasible)
And I'm sorry for the most ungodly long table ever, but here you go. A few races worth watching are AK-AL, where Don Young might be kicked out of the House for the first time since 1973 for, believe it or not, being corrupt. Also, MN-06 is Michele Bachmann's district; she's been mentioned here before. Florida has many hotly contested races. PA-12 is the district where Paul Murtha called his western Pennsylvania constituents racists - his 34 year career may come to an end. WY-AL is also a very close race.
| District | Projection |
|---|---|
| AL1 | Safe Rep |
| AL2 | Weak Rep |
| AL3 | Safe Rep |
| AL4 | Safe Rep |
| AL5 | Safe Dem |
| AL6 | Safe Rep |
| AL7 | Safe Dem |
| AK1 | Safe Dem |
| AZ1 | Strong Dem |
| AZ2 | Safe Rep |
| AZ3 | Safe Rep |
| AZ4 | Safe Dem |
| AZ5 | Strong Dem |
| AZ6 | Safe Rep |
| AZ7 | Safe Dem |
| AZ8 | Strong Dem |
| AR1 | Safe Dem |
| AR2 | Safe Dem |
| AR3 | Safe Rep |
| AR4 | Safe Dem |
| CA1 | Safe Dem |
| CA2 | Safe Rep |
| CA3 | Safe Rep |
| CA4 | Strong Dem |
| CA5 | Safe Dem |
| CA6 | Safe Dem |
| CA7 | Safe Dem |
| CA8 | Safe Dem |
| CA9 | Safe Dem |
| CA10 | Safe Dem |
| CA11 | Safe Dem |
| CA12 | Safe Dem |
| CA13 | Safe Dem |
| CA14 | Safe Dem |
| CA15 | Safe Dem |
| CA16 | Safe Dem |
| CA17 | Safe Dem |
| CA18 | Safe Dem |
| CA19 | Safe Rep |
| CA20 | Safe Dem |
| CA21 | Safe Rep |
| CA22 | Safe Rep |
| CA23 | Safe Dem |
| CA24 | Safe Rep |
| CA25 | Safe Rep |
| CA26 | Safe Rep |
| CA27 | Safe Dem |
| CA28 | Safe Dem |
| CA29 | Safe Dem |
| CA30 | Safe Dem |
| CA31 | Safe Dem |
| CA32 | Safe Dem |
| CA33 | Safe Dem |
| CA34 | Safe Dem |
| CA35 | Safe Dem |
| CA36 | Safe Dem |
| CA37 | Safe Dem |
| CA38 | Safe Dem |
| CA39 | Safe Dem |
| CA40 | Safe Rep |
| CA41 | Safe Rep |
| CA42 | Safe Rep |
| CA43 | Safe Dem |
| CA44 | Safe Rep |
| CA45 | Safe Rep |
| CA46 | Safe Rep |
| CA47 | Safe Dem |
| CA48 | Safe Rep |
| CA49 | Safe Rep |
| CA50 | Safe Rep |
| CA51 | Safe Dem |
| CA52 | Safe Rep |
| CA53 | Safe Dem |
| CO1 | Safe Dem |
| CO2 | Safe Dem |
| CO3 | Safe Dem |
| CO4 | Safe Dem |
| CO5 | Safe Rep |
| CO6 | Safe Rep |
| CO7 | Safe Dem |
| CT1 | Safe Dem |
| CT2 | Safe Dem |
| CT3 | Safe Dem |
| CT4 | Toss Up |
| CT5 | Weak Dem |
| DE1 | Safe Rep |
| FL1 | Safe Rep |
| FL2 | Safe Dem |
| FL3 | Safe Dem |
| FL4 | Safe Rep |
| FL5 | Safe Rep |
| FL6 | Safe Rep |
| FL7 | Safe Rep |
| FL8 | Weak Dem |
| FL9 | Safe Rep |
| FL10 | Safe Rep |
| FL11 | Safe Dem |
| FL12 | Safe Rep |
| FL13 | Safe Rep |
| FL14 | Safe Rep |
| FL15 | Strong Rep |
| FL16 | Safe Rep |
| FL17 | Safe Dem |
| FL18 | Safe Rep |
| FL19 | Safe Dem |
| FL20 | Safe Dem |
| FL21 | Toss Up |
| FL22 | Strong Dem |
| FL23 | Safe Dem |
| FL24 | Strong Dem |
| FL25 | Strong Rep |
| GA1 | Safe Rep |
| GA2 | Safe Dem |
| GA3 | Safe Rep |
| GA4 | Safe Dem |
| GA5 | Safe Dem |
| GA6 | Safe Rep |
| GA7 | Safe Rep |
| GA8 | Weak Dem |
| GA9 | Safe Rep |
| GA10 | Safe Rep |
| GA11 | Safe Rep |
| GA12 | Strong Dem |
| GA13 | Safe Dem |
| HI1 | Safe Dem |
| HI2 | Safe Dem |
| ID1 | Weak Dem |
| ID2 | Safe Rep |
| IL1 | Safe Dem |
| IL2 | Safe Dem |
| IL3 | Safe Dem |
| IL4 | Safe Dem |
| IL5 | Safe Dem |
| IL6 | Safe Rep |
| IL7 | Safe Dem |
| IL8 | Strong Dem |
| IL9 | Safe Dem |
| IL10 | Strong Dem |
| IL11 | Safe Dem |
| IL12 | Safe Dem |
| IL13 | Safe Rep |
| IL14 | Weak Dem |
| IL15 | Safe Rep |
| IL16 | Safe Rep |
| IL17 | Safe Dem |
| IL18 | Safe Rep |
| IL19 | Safe Rep |
| IN1 | Safe Dem |
| IN2 | Safe Dem |
| IN3 | Weak Rep |
| IN4 | Safe Rep |
| IN5 | Safe Rep |
| IN6 | Safe Rep |
| IN7 | Safe Dem |
| IN8 | Strong Dem |
| IN9 | Safe Dem |
| IA1 | Safe Dem |
| IA2 | Safe Dem |
| IA3 | Safe Dem |
| IA4 | Strong Rep |
| IA5 | Safe Rep |
| KS1 | Safe Rep |
| KS2 | Safe Dem |
| KS3 | Safe Dem |
| KS4 | Safe Rep |
| KY1 | Safe Rep |
| KY2 | Safe Rep |
| KY3 | Safe Dem |
| KY4 | Safe Rep |
| KY5 | Safe Rep |
| KY6 | Safe Dem |
| LA1 | Safe Rep |
| LA2 | Safe Dem |
| LA3 | Safe Dem |
| LA4 | Strong Rep |
| LA5 | Safe Rep |
| LA6 | Safe Dem |
| LA7 | Strong Rep |
| ME1 | Safe Dem |
| ME2 | Safe Dem |
| MD1 | Weak Rep |
| MD2 | Safe Dem |
| MD3 | Safe Dem |
| MD4 | Safe Dem |
| MD5 | Safe Dem |
| MD6 | Safe Rep |
| MD7 | Safe Dem |
| MD8 | Safe Dem |
| MA1 | Safe Dem |
| MA2 | Safe Dem |
| MA3 | Safe Dem |
| MA4 | Safe Dem |
| MA5 | Safe Dem |
| MA6 | Safe Dem |
| MA7 | Safe Dem |
| MA8 | Safe Dem |
| MA9 | Safe Dem |
| MA10 | Safe Dem |
| MI1 | Safe Dem |
| MI2 | Safe Rep |
| MI3 | Safe Rep |
| MI4 | Safe Rep |
| MI5 | Safe Dem |
| MI6 | Safe Rep |
| MI7 | Weak Dem |
| MI8 | Safe Rep |
| MI9 | Strong Dem |
| MI10 | Safe Rep |
| MI11 | Safe Rep |
| MI12 | Safe Dem |
| MI13 | Safe Dem |
| MI14 | Safe Dem |
| MI15 | Safe Dem |
| MN1 | Safe Dem |
| MN2 | Strong Rep |
| MN3 | Toss Up |
| MN4 | Safe Dem |
| MN5 | Safe Dem |
| MN6 | Toss Up |
| MN7 | Safe Dem |
| MN8 | Safe Dem |
| MS1 | Safe Dem |
| MS2 | Safe Dem |
| MS3 | Safe Rep |
| MS4 | Safe Dem |
| MO1 | Safe Dem |
| MO2 | Safe Rep |
| MO3 | Safe Dem |
| MO4 | Safe Dem |
| MO5 | Safe Dem |
| MO6 | Safe Rep |
| MO7 | Safe Rep |
| MO8 | Safe Rep |
| MO9 | Strong Rep |
| MT1 | Safe Rep |
| NE1 | Safe Rep |
| NE2 | Safe Rep |
| NE3 | Safe Rep |
| NV1 | Safe Dem |
| NV2 | Safe Rep |
| NV3 | Toss Up |
| NH1 | Strong Dem |
| NH2 | Safe Dem |
| NJ1 | Safe Dem |
| NJ2 | Safe Rep |
| NJ3 | Toss Up |
| NJ4 | Safe Rep |
| NJ5 | Safe Rep |
| NJ6 | Safe Dem |
| NJ7 | Weak Dem |
| NJ8 | Safe Dem |
| NJ9 | Safe Dem |
| NJ10 | Safe Dem |
| NJ11 | Safe Rep |
| NJ12 | Safe Dem |
| NJ13 | Safe Dem |
| NM1 | Weak Dem |
| NM2 | Strong Dem |
| NM3 | Safe Dem |
| NY1 | Safe Dem |
| NY2 | Safe Dem |
| NY3 | Safe Rep |
| NY4 | Safe Dem |
| NY5 | Safe Dem |
| NY6 | Safe Dem |
| NY7 | Safe Dem |
| NY8 | Safe Dem |
| NY9 | Safe Dem |
| NY10 | Safe Dem |
| NY11 | Safe Dem |
| NY12 | Safe Dem |
| NY13 | Safe Dem |
| NY14 | Safe Dem |
| NY15 | Safe Dem |
| NY16 | Safe Dem |
| NY17 | Safe Dem |
| NY18 | Safe Dem |
| NY19 | Strong Dem |
| NY20 | Strong Dem |
| NY21 | Safe Dem |
| NY22 | Safe Dem |
| NY23 | Safe Rep |
| NY24 | Strong Dem |
| NY25 | Toss Up |
| NY26 | Safe Rep |
| NY27 | Safe Dem |
| NY28 | Safe Dem |
| NY29 | Safe Dem |
| NC1 | Safe Dem |
| NC2 | Safe Dem |
| NC3 | Safe Rep |
| NC4 | Safe Dem |
| NC5 | Safe Rep |
| NC6 | Safe Rep |
| NC7 | Safe Dem |
| NC8 | Weak Dem |
| NC9 | Safe Rep |
| NC10 | Safe Rep |
| NC11 | Safe Dem |
| NC12 | Safe Dem |
| NC13 | Safe Dem |
| ND1 | Safe Dem |
| OH1 | Toss Up |
| OH2 | Safe Rep |
| OH3 | Safe Rep |
| OH4 | Safe Rep |
| OH5 | Safe Rep |
| OH6 | Safe Dem |
| OH7 | Strong Rep |
| OH8 | Safe Rep |
| OH9 | Safe Dem |
| OH10 | Safe Dem |
| OH11 | Safe Dem |
| OH12 | Safe Rep |
| OH13 | Safe Dem |
| OH14 | Strong Rep |
| OH15 | Safe Dem |
| OH16 | Safe Dem |
| OH17 | Safe Dem |
| OH18 | Strong Dem |
| OK1 | Safe Rep |
| OK2 | Safe Dem |
| OK3 | Safe Rep |
| OK4 | Safe Rep |
| OK5 | Safe Rep |
| OR1 | Safe Dem |
| OR2 | Safe Rep |
| OR3 | Safe Dem |
| OR4 | Safe Dem |
| OR5 | Safe Dem |
| PA1 | Safe Dem |
| PA2 | Safe Dem |
| PA3 | Strong Dem |
| PA4 | Safe Dem |
| PA5 | Safe Rep |
| PA6 | Safe Rep |
| PA7 | Safe Dem |
| PA8 | Strong Dem |
| PA9 | Safe Rep |
| PA10 | Safe Dem |
| PA11 | Strong Rep |
| PA12 | Toss Up |
| PA13 | Safe Dem |
| PA14 | Safe Dem |
| PA15 | Strong Rep |
| PA16 | Safe Rep |
| PA17 | Safe Dem |
| PA18 | Strong Rep |
| PA19 | Safe Rep |
| RI1 | Safe Dem |
| RI2 | Safe Dem |
| SC1 | Safe Rep |
| SC2 | Safe Rep |
| SC3 | Safe Rep |
| SC4 | Safe Rep |
| SC5 | Safe Dem |
| SC6 | Safe Dem |
| SD1 | Safe Dem |
| TN1 | Safe Rep |
| TN2 | Safe Rep |
| TN3 | Safe Rep |
| TN4 | Safe Dem |
| TN5 | Safe Dem |
| TN6 | Safe Dem |
| TN7 | Safe Rep |
| TN8 | Safe Dem |
| TN9 | Safe Dem |
| TX1 | Safe Rep |
| TX2 | Safe Rep |
| TX3 | Safe Rep |
| TX4 | Safe Rep |
| TX5 | Safe Rep |
| TX6 | Safe Rep |
| TX7 | Safe Rep |
| TX8 | Safe Rep |
| TX9 | Safe Dem |
| TX10 | Strong Rep |
| TX11 | Safe Rep |
| TX12 | Safe Rep |
| TX13 | Safe Rep |
| TX14 | Safe Rep |
| TX15 | Safe Dem |
| TX16 | Safe Dem |
| TX17 | Safe Dem |
| TX18 | Safe Dem |
| TX19 | Safe Rep |
| TX20 | Safe Dem |
| TX21 | Safe Rep |
| TX22 | Safe Rep |
| TX23 | Strong Dem |
| TX24 | Safe Rep |
| TX25 | Safe Dem |
| TX26 | Safe Rep |
| TX27 | Safe Dem |
| TX28 | Safe Dem |
| TX29 | Safe Dem |
| TX30 | Safe Dem |
| TX31 | Safe Rep |
| TX32 | Safe Rep |
| UT1 | Safe Rep |
| UT2 | Safe Dem |
| UT3 | Safe Rep |
| VT1 | Safe Dem |
| VA1 | Safe Rep |
| VA2 | Safe Rep |
| VA3 | Safe Dem |
| VA4 | Safe Rep |
| VA5 | Safe Rep |
| VA6 | Safe Rep |
| VA7 | Safe Rep |
| VA8 | Safe Dem |
| VA9 | Safe Dem |
| VA10 | Weak Rep |
| VA11 | Safe Dem |
| WA1 | Safe Dem |
| WA2 | Safe Dem |
| WA3 | Safe Dem |
| WA4 | Safe Rep |
| WA5 | Safe Rep |
| WA6 | Safe Dem |
| WA7 | Safe Dem |
| WA8 | Toss Up |
| WA9 | Safe Dem |
| WV1 | Safe Dem |
| WV2 | Safe Rep |
| WV3 | Safe Dem |
| WI1 | Safe Rep |
| WI2 | Safe Dem |
| WI3 | Safe Dem |
| WI4 | Safe Dem |
| WI5 | Safe Rep |
| WI6 | Safe Rep |
| WI7 | Safe Dem |
| WI8 | Safe Dem |
| WY1 | Weak Rep |
Election Projection, Senate Version
The Senate races are finally starting to behave themselves, as there is now relatively little variance in how the next Senate could look.
Astoundingly, the closest the Democrats have come to losing a single Senate seat is Mary Landrieu in LA, whose lead is "only" 13.1 points (and those aren't all blue states on the top half either). They are picking up Virginia and New Mexico in landslides (VA Dem candidate Mark Warner gave that ever-so-inspiring keynote address about cellphone towers). Colorado and New Hampshire have also become safe, and it looks like Uncle Ted has run out of luck in Alaska.
In North Carolina, Bob Dole's wife no longer has a career after running "my opponent is an athiest" ads, and the race in Oregon is closing out as well.
Counting North Carolina and Oregon brings the Dems to 58 seats, and if I put my money on it, I'd say that's where they'll land. A good hedged bet is that with a 50% chance in MN and a 20% chance in Georgia, the Democrats have a 65% chance of picking up at least one of those seats. The polls are constantly back-and-forth in MN, but Al Franken has trailed the latest polls by SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and Research 2000, all reputable and prolific pollsters. The Georgia race could flip on turnout, but if Jim Martin can't win a majority (which he can't) then it goes to runoff. Both sides will flood the race with money, but without the Obama turnout driving voters to the polls, I see little hope for picking up Georgia.
Final Senate Tally
Democrats and Liebermans: 58
Republicans: 42
And just in case you're worried about Lieberman, put it one of two ways: either you believe he really is a moderate Democrat who just supports the war and McCain, or you believe he is merely self-serving based on what gives him the best chance at power. Either way, he'll wear the Blue jersey next season.
Astoundingly, the closest the Democrats have come to losing a single Senate seat is Mary Landrieu in LA, whose lead is "only" 13.1 points (and those aren't all blue states on the top half either). They are picking up Virginia and New Mexico in landslides (VA Dem candidate Mark Warner gave that ever-so-inspiring keynote address about cellphone towers). Colorado and New Hampshire have also become safe, and it looks like Uncle Ted has run out of luck in Alaska.
In North Carolina, Bob Dole's wife no longer has a career after running "my opponent is an athiest" ads, and the race in Oregon is closing out as well.
Counting North Carolina and Oregon brings the Dems to 58 seats, and if I put my money on it, I'd say that's where they'll land. A good hedged bet is that with a 50% chance in MN and a 20% chance in Georgia, the Democrats have a 65% chance of picking up at least one of those seats. The polls are constantly back-and-forth in MN, but Al Franken has trailed the latest polls by SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and Research 2000, all reputable and prolific pollsters. The Georgia race could flip on turnout, but if Jim Martin can't win a majority (which he can't) then it goes to runoff. Both sides will flood the race with money, but without the Obama turnout driving voters to the polls, I see little hope for picking up Georgia.
Final Senate Tally
Democrats and Liebermans: 58
Republicans: 42
And just in case you're worried about Lieberman, put it one of two ways: either you believe he really is a moderate Democrat who just supports the war and McCain, or you believe he is merely self-serving based on what gives him the best chance at power. Either way, he'll wear the Blue jersey next season.
Election Projection, Beta Version
(The numbers here are subject to change as the day goes on)
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama. (Very) Weak Obama.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech. (Very) Weak McCain.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up shows Obama 364, McCain 174 with Obama 353 McCain 185 and Obama 375 McCain 163 being the second- and third-most likely scenarios.
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 364-174 differs from the graphic's 375-163.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Yesterday Karl Rove spoke at Washington University. I wanted to go but didn't. But as I remarked to my friend, "How appropriate it would be to go see Karl Rove speak at the end of his era, and the next day vote in the dawn of the next era."
It's not news, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.
There will be more polls so I won't call this my last update, though I may not have time for another. Here's the analysis.
I maintain that Barack Obama's core of 311 EVs (Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH) is safe, even though Ohio has tightened a bit recently. I'd have to say I can't count McCain's core as being any larger than 132 EVs. It is unlikely that he will lose any of ND, GA, AZ, or MT, but the numbers just aren't there to call those EVs safe for McCain.
The remaining (non-safe) states are:
Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
North Dakota (3)
Georgia (15)
Arizona (10)
Montana (3)
Florida - I would love to call Florida for Obama. It's just a whisper away, but I just can't do it. Four days ago it would have been all but locked up, but there has also been tightening here. Rasmussen, one of the best pollsters, went from Obama 51 McCain 47 on 10/26 to McCain 50 Obama 49 on 11/2. That's just one poll, but to really look for trends it's best to watch how numbers move within a pollster. Strong Obama.
North Carolina - More than any other state, North Carolina's result will be determined by turnout. There's apparently some rain there today, which is apparently bad for Democrats. I show Obama with a significant but very slight lead. The latest poll in NC is from American Research Group, whom I don't trust too much. The four polls before that show McCain ahead, albeit by 1, 1, 1, and 3 pts. Weak Obama.
Missouri - The show-me state has become the ultimate swing state. As I'm sure you've heard before, Missouri is (I believe) 25 for the last 26 elections in going with the winner (went against Eisenhower's re-election in '56) but this year runs a little redder than the median, though when Obama surged a month ago, Missouri moved bluer faster than most states. That trend has settled down, and of the last 6 polls in the state, there are four ties, one Obama 1 pt lead, and one McCain 1 pt lead. There are few areas in the country as poor as St. Louis City in running an election (in 2004 they had to extend voting hours to 10:00 PM from 7:00 PM) and the results always come in late, so MO will be among the later states called. I just don't know what to do with this state. Due to the confusion in the city, voter purges might be possible, but on the other hand I expect turnout to be very high. My precinct is largely African-American, and we were literally lined up by the hundreds before the polls even opened. My gut tells me Missouri might stay red, but all my objective indicators give an ever-so-slight advantage to Obama. (Very) Weak Obama.
Indiana - For all the talk of Indiana's historical red-ness, Bill Clinton only lost the state by 4 in '92 and 5.5 in '96. Popular Senator Evan Bayh was on the VP shortlist, and the state overperformed for Obama in the primaries. On the other hand, Obama's only led in 2 of the last 9 polls (in fairness, McCain only has in 4 but his leads have been larger) and the state never really shifted too far after the economic crisis. Since the state has been underpolled I tried turning down the sensitivity, but it still just shows a big swing state mess. I may very well come back to this one, but for now I'll say that the first indicator of the evening won't lead to a 6:30 concession speech. (Very) Weak McCain.
North Dakota - This state, part of the rural west, has suffered from a mighty dearth of polling. Indicators show it will be surprisingly close, but Obama withdrew from the state during the Palin bounce and he underperformed during the primaries. Weak McCain.
Georgia - Georgia, I feel, is just being a tease. The race there has tightened very dramatically, but McCain continues to average over 50% - a key threshold. While reports indicate that early voting turnout has been exceptionally high, Georgia would be an upset for the ages. Strong McCain.
Arizona - There are more undecideds in John McCain's home state than in Georgia, so McCain is not averaging 50% here even though his lead is about the same. But if you live in Arizona and haven't decided who you're voting for, I can't help but feel like that's not good for John McCain. Still, Obama's never led a poll here and underperformed during the primaries. Strong McCain.
Montana - This state has been a big tease for Dems all year. It also suffers from a dearth of polling; nonetheless, Obama's only lead in four months came from a university-comissioned poll, which are notoriously untrustworthy. Still, McCain isn't at 50% here either. One other issue is that Ron Paul has made the ballot in MT. Apparently I'm the only person in the country who thinks that this factor is likely to pull more votes from Obama than McCain, as Obama/Paul (now there's a ticket) shared the same young, energized voter demographics in the primaries (and their fundraising). As in North Dakota, Obama also pulled his resources here after the Palin bounce, which you may remember was particularly strong in the rural west. Strong McCain.
Final Analysis - I hate to call MO and IN one way or the other. The other states here could very easily be up for grabs, but also definitely have a lean. I'm really growing irritated by all these sites that use real statistics in their models, but then won't make any calls, or are very conservative. Who does it help to call 105 EVs "pure tossups" on the day of the election? Of course, I don't have much to risk if I'm wrong, but a four point lead on the basis of a weighted average of 30 polls in the last month is not a statistical tie.
Anyway, the way it's currently added up shows Obama 364, McCain 174 with Obama 353 McCain 185 and Obama 375 McCain 163 being the second- and third-most likely scenarios.
I project the popular vote to be Obama 53.1% to McCain 45.9%. Obama has currently led 278 consecutive polls in my model dating back to September 15. He is up 371-32 in the signs test and 15.8-0.0 in the weighted signs test. The polling averages are Obama 50.9% McCain 43.9%, which projected forward give you the bold numbers above.
The best guesses I have for state-by-state vote projections are given in the following table. I'm sorry it's messier than ever. There are no fudge factors in the following projections (i.e., I can't look at one state and say "hey, that should be 0.6 pts higher") but there is still subjectivity in terms of how sensitive the model is to new information (currently I give a poll a half-life of 5 days, down from 30 in June).
Note: I called Indiana above for McCain even though the math predicts (an insignificantly small) Obama victory, so my 364-174 differs from the graphic's 375-163.
Also, if you'd like a copy of my spreadsheet with all the data, I'd be happy to email it to you.
Updates are coming
I promise a full in-depth prediction thread, but I just got here, I'm three days behind in poll logging, and I might even have work to do. Noon eastern at the earliest.
experiences at the ballot box
So I know I had to wait in line for about 50 minutes this morning, but then my voting went smoothly. Waiting in line was quite enjoyable- it was clear the majority was in favor of Obama. Granted, I was voting in Bed-Sty and was one of maybe 4 other non-African Americans in the line. I learned that when the voting opened this morning, the line did indeed wrap around the block, though it was shorter upon my arrival.
How have your experiences been? Fortunately the voting machine did not break one person ahead of me like it did for the primaries.
I was very excited afterward; I paused to appreciate the magnitude of what I had just done. A stranger on the subway platform seemed to identify that we were having similar feelings and struck up a friendly conversation about the momentous occasion. How unusual!
Obama announced he would run on February 10, 2007. That's 19 months of campaigning. Everyone should pause as they cast their ballot- it's the end of a long journey, and as we are all glued to 538 or RCP or CNN throughout the day, let's hope it's the real beginning of...change we can believe in.
How have your experiences been? Fortunately the voting machine did not break one person ahead of me like it did for the primaries.
I was very excited afterward; I paused to appreciate the magnitude of what I had just done. A stranger on the subway platform seemed to identify that we were having similar feelings and struck up a friendly conversation about the momentous occasion. How unusual!
Obama announced he would run on February 10, 2007. That's 19 months of campaigning. Everyone should pause as they cast their ballot- it's the end of a long journey, and as we are all glued to 538 or RCP or CNN throughout the day, let's hope it's the real beginning of...change we can believe in.
November 03, 2008
WSJ candidate statements
Below are links to two articles that ran in the WSJ this morning, one written by each of the presidential candidates. We all know the basic problems with each of the stump speeches, and they are not all removed from these articles, but I still enjoyed reading them, as the last-minute nature of the pleas changes the tone in an interesting way.
John McCain - "What We're Fighting For"
Barack Obama - "The Change We Need"
John McCain - "What We're Fighting For"
Barack Obama - "The Change We Need"
Pundit Predictions
via HuffPo:
Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans
I could pick apart quite a few of these, but my favorite is probably Alex Castellanos, who would run with Geraldo on the mustache ticket, and thinks that Obama will win Florida and lose Ohio. Either is possible, but no way both of those things happen (i.e., Ohio is bluer than Florida right now, so if Florida goes blue, so would Ohio. Plus I already called Ohio the other day). Bonus: He calls Mary Landrieu's LA Senate seat for the Republicans, which is absolutely ridiculous in and of itself (Nate puts her at 98%) but he adds for fun that Georgia will go to the Democrats. I'm dead serious - anyone who is that bad at his job should be relieved of it.
Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans
I could pick apart quite a few of these, but my favorite is probably Alex Castellanos, who would run with Geraldo on the mustache ticket, and thinks that Obama will win Florida and lose Ohio. Either is possible, but no way both of those things happen (i.e., Ohio is bluer than Florida right now, so if Florida goes blue, so would Ohio. Plus I already called Ohio the other day). Bonus: He calls Mary Landrieu's LA Senate seat for the Republicans, which is absolutely ridiculous in and of itself (Nate puts her at 98%) but he adds for fun that Georgia will go to the Democrats. I'm dead serious - anyone who is that bad at his job should be relieved of it.
November 02, 2008
Rick Davis is on Fox News Sunday
"I think you can probably move Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada into McCain's column."
"John McCain is the greatest closer poltician of all time."
"John McCain is the greatest closer poltician of all time."