Sorry for the half-ass post - I just don't have the time right now.
But as funny as it is to go to all of our friends and say "Wow, did you hear this crazy-ass shit that the Texas Governor implied the other day?" it's just as important not to underestimate the long-run effects of the bitter partisan divide that is growing stonger everyday.
Something like a secession or a civil war is certainly unlikely, nearly to the point of being negligible, but you've got an angry and motivated (if not informed) populous, a minority party without a good strong leader or message (which is now pretty extreme as well, thanks to 2008's decimation of the moderates) and an economy in epic (-ly ununderstandable?) shambles. Not to mention the fringe extremist, yet still relatively common (10%?) view that we elected a Black Arab Communist Socialist Muslim Nazi for president.
April 17, 2009
April 16, 2009
Scary econ. graph of the day, part 2
Ask and ye shall receive, even the anonymous amongst us. The above graph, based on FDIC data, shows the percentage of FDIC insured financial institutions to fail or receive assistance each year between 1934 and 2007. I could not find data on the number of institutions insured beyond 2007, when there were 7,283 institutions, three of which failed and zero of which received assistance. In 2008 thirty institutions failed or received assistance, and assuming the number of institutions did not change from 2007 this gives us a failure plus assistance rate of 0.412%. In 2009 so far twenty-three institutions have failed, and, using the same method of approximation as was used for 2008, this give us a failure plus assistance rate for this year (so far) of 0.316%.
To directly answer the two anonymous concerns:
1. Graph is now in terms of percentage and the trend remains. By the way, I totally agree with this critique. Thanks for reminding me to keep everything in relative terms;
2. I agree that the high failure rate in the late 1980s and early 1990s likely lowered the number of banks in existence, thereby lowering the absolute number of failures in future years. (Am I wrong in thinking that this could push the percentage of failures either higher or lower depending on other factors? If the remaining banks are healthier overall the failure percentage will decline in the future, but if there are still a bunch of unhealthy banks just waiting to fail then the failure rate will rise.) It also must be recognized that in the late-1980s and early- to mid-1990s there was a big push for de-regulation that significantly increased the likelihood of bank mergers and thereby pushed the number of existing institutions down. In fact, "From 1980 to 1994, there was an average of 423 mergers per year—a total of 6,347 mergers, which amounted to 43 percent of all banks in existence in 1980" (source). I don't have an answer as to the effect of each of these forces, but you can see the overall trend clearly in this graph:
April 15, 2009
WTF St Louis?
I know, I know, I have been absent from the blog. And here I am, coming back just to put down St. Louis.
But I thought this story must be shared.
But I thought this story must be shared.
April 13, 2009
Holy Hockey, it's Playoff Time!
Ahh, yes. Today is the first of a two-day break that separates the six-and-a-half months of "regular season" from the inexplicably long two-month "postseason." I know hockey isn't the most popular topic around here, but the teams from Boston, Chicago, and St. Louis have each had rather notable years.
Let's start with Chicago because, well, saying anything nice about the Blackhawks churns my stomach. This is a young team improving rapidly, and they made the playoffs this year for the first time since 2002 (they haven't been any good, though, for a decade and a half). Chicago should make easy work of its first series with Calgary, though I make no predictions beyond that. Going forward, everything looks great for the next 5 years for the Hawks, who will be perennial contenders for the Cup - if they can resolve the issue of their aging goaltender. Bonus points: President Obama's favorite Chicago-style pizza comes from St. Louis' awesomely-named Pi, about a tenth of a mile from my apartment.
Another interesting development comes out of Boston, where the perrenially mediocre Bruins have had an astonishingly good season and have claimed the top spot in the East. I don't really know much about the B's except that they've got some solid goaltending, but their Goal Differential numbers have been outstanding, coming in at +80 for the year - more than 1.5 times that of any other team. I'd have to say that Boston is a narrow favorite as my top choice for the Cup, but competition is pretty tough this year. Winning the East is one thing, but getting by San Jose or Detroit in the finals would be another feat entirely.
Finally, the opportunity to dote on my St. Louis Blues. This Blues season is one of the most amazing I've ever seen in sports and is not getting enough attention in the news.
The Blues missed the playoffs in 1979 and 2006 - and not once in between. Their fall from grace was rapid, however. In 1999-2000 they boasted the league's best record. However, the lockout of 2004-2005 brought many rule changes, and the new salary cap decimated a team that had the league's third-highest payroll. When the new NHL debuted, the 2005-2006 Blues finished dead last in the league.
What has been so amazing as a fan, is that after the lockout, the team's management recognized that they couldn't contend, and did something completely unheard of in sports - they pretty much said they would write off the next few seasons and focus on building a top-caliber team for the future. 2008-09 was supposed to be one of those big resurgence years for us.
Hopes dimmed quickly, however, when #1 overall draft pick Erik Johnson was lost for the season, as was captain Eric Brewer. Future hall-of-famer Paul Kariya was lost for the season a month later, and star center Andy McDonald missed over two-thirds of the season. As if all that wasn't enough, goaltender Manny Legace was an all-star last year; today he's in the minors. All said and done, 41 games into the 82 game season the Blues had only 16 wins and were 15th of out 15 in the Western Conference.
In the second half of the season, however, the Blues went an NHL-best 25-9-7, capped by a 9-1-1 record in their last nine games. On Thursday St. Louis was in 9th place - outside of the playoff picture. After clinching a playoff berth by defeating #6 Columbus, the Blues poured salt in the wound by winning their season finale in Colorado, demoting Columbus to the #7 seed, meaning they would play Detroit (+51 goal differential) instead of Vancouver (+26).
I'm clearly going on too long, and breaking this up over several 5-minute periods has probably robbed me of any coherence, but I'll wrap it up. It's been a truly amazing season for a sports fan here. And finally, the NHL recently chose it's "goal of the year," an honor bestowed upon 22-year-old Blues forward TJ Oshie, a future superstar. It's not the most spectacular goal of the season, but watch as Oshie works his way around four different Canucks - all in the offensive zone - before making 2007 MVP nominee Robert Luongo look silly in net:
Let's start with Chicago because, well, saying anything nice about the Blackhawks churns my stomach. This is a young team improving rapidly, and they made the playoffs this year for the first time since 2002 (they haven't been any good, though, for a decade and a half). Chicago should make easy work of its first series with Calgary, though I make no predictions beyond that. Going forward, everything looks great for the next 5 years for the Hawks, who will be perennial contenders for the Cup - if they can resolve the issue of their aging goaltender. Bonus points: President Obama's favorite Chicago-style pizza comes from St. Louis' awesomely-named Pi, about a tenth of a mile from my apartment.
Another interesting development comes out of Boston, where the perrenially mediocre Bruins have had an astonishingly good season and have claimed the top spot in the East. I don't really know much about the B's except that they've got some solid goaltending, but their Goal Differential numbers have been outstanding, coming in at +80 for the year - more than 1.5 times that of any other team. I'd have to say that Boston is a narrow favorite as my top choice for the Cup, but competition is pretty tough this year. Winning the East is one thing, but getting by San Jose or Detroit in the finals would be another feat entirely.
Finally, the opportunity to dote on my St. Louis Blues. This Blues season is one of the most amazing I've ever seen in sports and is not getting enough attention in the news.
The Blues missed the playoffs in 1979 and 2006 - and not once in between. Their fall from grace was rapid, however. In 1999-2000 they boasted the league's best record. However, the lockout of 2004-2005 brought many rule changes, and the new salary cap decimated a team that had the league's third-highest payroll. When the new NHL debuted, the 2005-2006 Blues finished dead last in the league.
What has been so amazing as a fan, is that after the lockout, the team's management recognized that they couldn't contend, and did something completely unheard of in sports - they pretty much said they would write off the next few seasons and focus on building a top-caliber team for the future. 2008-09 was supposed to be one of those big resurgence years for us.
Hopes dimmed quickly, however, when #1 overall draft pick Erik Johnson was lost for the season, as was captain Eric Brewer. Future hall-of-famer Paul Kariya was lost for the season a month later, and star center Andy McDonald missed over two-thirds of the season. As if all that wasn't enough, goaltender Manny Legace was an all-star last year; today he's in the minors. All said and done, 41 games into the 82 game season the Blues had only 16 wins and were 15th of out 15 in the Western Conference.
In the second half of the season, however, the Blues went an NHL-best 25-9-7, capped by a 9-1-1 record in their last nine games. On Thursday St. Louis was in 9th place - outside of the playoff picture. After clinching a playoff berth by defeating #6 Columbus, the Blues poured salt in the wound by winning their season finale in Colorado, demoting Columbus to the #7 seed, meaning they would play Detroit (+51 goal differential) instead of Vancouver (+26).
I'm clearly going on too long, and breaking this up over several 5-minute periods has probably robbed me of any coherence, but I'll wrap it up. It's been a truly amazing season for a sports fan here. And finally, the NHL recently chose it's "goal of the year," an honor bestowed upon 22-year-old Blues forward TJ Oshie, a future superstar. It's not the most spectacular goal of the season, but watch as Oshie works his way around four different Canucks - all in the offensive zone - before making 2007 MVP nominee Robert Luongo look silly in net: